Episode 0: Prologue
Chequers, Residence of the Prime Minister, September 29th 2007
“Well, from a media perspective, I think we’ve got to think about the reaction if we decide not to go for it now – they’ll absolutely slaughter us.” Said Damian McBride
“So the best reason not to go for it is because of what might happen if we don’t?” said one MP
There were a couple of moments of silence.
“Yes. What better reason is there?” said McBride. “You take a choice because the other option is worse, that’s politics. If we don’t run now, we risk ticking down the Clock, the Tories clocking up money and riding us in the press as tired. We run now, play the democratic card, put the talent front and centre and retain dynamism.” [1]
“But what about the South East marginals?” piped up another MP
“The choice isn’t between keeping those and losing them. It’s between a low variance result now, and a situation in 3 years’ time we can’t possibly predict.” Said Ed Balls “We know what we’re getting into now, and it looks good. I would have bitten the hand off for this election situation in 2005.”
“But given time, we can improve the situation to gain on 2005” said Ed Miliband
“I don’t think we’re in, nor will we ever be in, a situation where we can take winning an election for granted.” Said James Purnell
There was a murmur of assent in the room.
“I feel we should commit now before next week’s Iraq trip. There could be some press murmurs around that but we shouldn’t let them rock us and make sure we’re solid.” Chipped in McBride
“Brief Peter Watt.” Said Brown, chiming in from a shadowed chair. “I’ll be writing to the Queen on the 6th, to dissolve Parliament on the 12th.”
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[1] This is the POD, OTL, McBride and MPs like Purnell didn't speak up, and subsequently the consensus coming out of even the pre-Iraq visit meetings was the an early election might not be everything it's cracked up to be. Once the press from the Iraq visit, coupled with the Tories post-conference bounce, hit, the inner circle shat itself and insiders even began suggesting 3 more years wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. This total mood change is mitigated here by the urgency of needing do an election before Christmas, once it was decided, it had to immediately be acted upon.