Defending against August Storm

[Sumeragi]

This is a hypothetical scenario. Let's suppose the following:

1. Japan pulled out most of its troops from the Chinese front following a truce with Chiang, on the condition that Manchukuo be kept around and there will be help in crushing the Communist once and for all. (Likely cries of ASB, but let's just suppose this for the moment).

2. Instead of all the worthless domestic developments, Japan had access to German technological developments (Acht-acht, Panther, all that sort of stuff) and had the capacity to manufacture them in substantial numbers (again, ASB-class, but just go along with the show).

3. Japan had starting from the end of the Battle of Kursk to prepare.

4. The nukes are not going to drop anytime soon (or will be ignored).


Given the above circumstances, and assuming the USSR went along near identical plans in OTL, how could have Japan at least stalemated the USSR Operation? Any comments on the amount of men needed, constructions necessary for defense, overall strategy are welcome.

 

[Julian]

Yes, but this scenario is so unrealistic that it shouldn't even be considered.

 

[Sumeragi]

Yes, but this scenario is so unrealistic that it shouldn't even be considered.

It's necessary for a future timeline I'm writing, so please just go with the scenario.

 

[LeX]

Hm it's interesting but there are too many ASB elements in it. Just how much industrial strength are you talking about (like, can Japan create 100 or 1000 Panthers?) and what are the other historical circumstances? Did Japan get in a war with the US? Are they still concentrating on the navy? Where is their oil for these handsome armored beasts coming from?

 

[Sumeragi]

Just to give a hint, instead of the insipid industrialization process in the 1920's and 30's, Korea is given a full-blown industrial boost, where it becomes somewhat like the Japanese Bohemia and Moravia. Even in OTL, the Korea Nitrogenous Fertilizer Company had enough chemical capacity to match 1/8~1/6 of the entire German chemical production in 1936, and this was after heavy industrialization happened starting from the 1930's. So basically, by Korea not being kicked around as in OTL, the region has a larger and more educated population, capable of running the much enlarged iron and steel and armaments industry. So basically....

1. Korea has a better relationship with Japan, and becomes an important part of the land weapon production and manpower.

2. Much of the Pacific War goes about as similar to OTL.

 

[LeX]

We still have the problem that there is not enough fuel for these tanks, unless of course the Americans (and Germans, so that Japan can get the Panthers in the first place!) are still friendly with the Japanese and willing to sell them oil. A precedent for this would be Japan not invading China or Chiang Kai-shek willing to accept the loss of Manchuria (the latter being a requirement for the scenario to be possible at all), or more likely, a less militaristic or insane Japanese leadership.

 

[Julian]

It's ASB for Japan to 1. Be even close to as industrialized as the USSR or Nazi Germany, much less America, over the course of a couple decades (Even under a communist regime) 2. Be resource independent enough to be able to support its economy.

 

[CalBear]

Fight the Red Army to a standstill?

Well, Japan would need...

Hell, Japan would need to be the United States in terms of production capacity if it started at Kursk just to be able to equal the Red Army. Even then I don't think they could actually produce the equipment given their available resources (even if you somehow remove the fact that the USAAF is happily burning down 30 or so square miles of urban Japan every week, which, based on your earlier posts, you haven't).

For another thing there isn't enough oil to let you actually run a heavily mechanized force. The oil that exists in the region isn't known of, and is beyond the drilling technology of the time even if it was known. Just as critically the Japanese lack sufficient rare earths to make the high strength parts needed to allow the really high output aircraft engines needed (this was a killer IOTL, the late war Japanese designs had simply horrible availability due to break-downs that were not engineering failures but inadequate metals)



Lastly, and by far most importantly, the IJA command simply didn't get modern warfare. They were a light infantry force, with some air support capacity, but the whole military revolution that rolled through Europe past WW I simply passed Japan by. The WHY? is actually a really interesting question, one that I have never seen definitively addressed, but it is unquestionably true (my personal belief is that they didn't get the idea that Elan outweighed firepower beaten out of them in the trenches in WW I, so they stayed with what had always worked). The IJA didn't win a single battle against a prepared Western opponent. It did very well against poorly prepared and surprised colonial forces, but after that? Nada. Did poorly in the Jungle, did poorly against amphibious assaults, did poorly against the Red Army, and it wasn't only equipment, it was both tactical and strategic doctrine. The Japanese Army had no doctrine that would allow them to deal with the firestorm that was Red Army combined arms operations in 1945.

Figure minimum of 2 million men, all equipped as well as the best 1944 Waffen SS Panzer divisions with at least 4,000 late model FW-190 and a couple thousand Hs 129 for air support. This assumes that Stalin doesn't reinforce OTL's operation. If he does, and if he sends any of the Great Patriotic War Front commanders as commander, I'm not sure that any number of Japanese troops can stop them, not even with all late-war German ground equipment.

 

[Julian]

Especially when, if how Japan operated during the war is taken into account, the Japanese attempt to man every square inch of the front and keep the vast majority of their forces forward rather than in any sort of reserve. That's a recpie for disaster in Manchruia against a Red Army that has had years to hone its skills in deep battle operations and especially encirclements tactically and operationally.

Also, even with German technology Japanese artillery numbers, calibers, or training would never exceed that of the Soviets (If we count towed and self propelled anti-tank guns as part of the artillery) and thus make any kind of Kursk like defense impossible. Especially since Japan's mine laying doctrine is far behind that of the Soviets,who at Kursk operated mobile sapper groups specifically to lay mines in the path of enemy advances, effectively blunting them at every turn.

 

[joho6411]

Just a guess.....perhaps Japanese Cavalry can cross over the Amur River or over the Argun River to the west and make a dash for the Trans-Siberian Railroad. Cut/blow-up the railroad in a few places thereby denying supplies to be transported to the Soviet Far East Army? Other guesses of mine may border on ASB but: 1) Several hundred more aircraft to destroy mechanized units, yet, where does Japan get fuel for these aircraft and more importantly, where does Japan get high quality engines and pilots? 2) Somehow, the Japanese Army develops a quality anti-tank gun or bazooka/Panzerfaust weapon to counter Soviet Armor/Mechanized vehicles. To do this, one has to change Japanese Infantry Doctrine and I am not sure if this can be done between 1936-1944. Hope that this font is acceptable Sumeragi. Regards, Joho

 

[Julian]

Just a guess.....perhaps Japanese Cavalry can cross over the Amur River or over the Argun River to the west and make a dash for the Trans-Siberian Railroad. Cut/blow-up the railroad in a few places thereby denying supplies to be transported to the Soviet Far East Army? Other guesses of mine may border on ASB but: 1) Several hundred more aircraft to destroy mechanized units, yet, where does Japan get fuel for these aircraft and more importantly, where does Japan get high quality engines and pilots? 2) Somehow, the Japanese Army develops a quality anti-tank gun or bazooka/Panzerfaust weapon to counter Soviet Armor/Mechanized vehicles. To do this, one has to change Japanese Infantry Doctrine and I am not sure if this can be done between 1936-1944. Hope that this font is acceptable Sumeragi. Regards, Joho

Not going to happen when Soviet Cavalry-Mechanized Groups are far superior in tactics, numbers and experience. Pus the Japanese would never be able to break Soviet codes and preempt their attack. The Soviets would have complete tactical and operational surprise, leading to the rapid breakup and encirclement of poorly supplied and spread out Japanese forces.

 

[hairysamarian]

Lastly, and by far most importantly, the IJA command simply didn't get modern warfare. They were a light infantry force, with some air support capacity, but the whole military revolution that rolled through Europe past WW I simply passed Japan by. The WHY? is actually a really interesting question, one that I have never seen definitively addressed,

I've always suspected that the Japanese Army never caught on to modern industrialized armored warfare because 1: They lacked the industry and 2: Japan and the Pacific Islands lack plentiful good tank ground (unlike Europe).
Oh, and 3: They didn't have the personal experience of millions of their own dying to trench warfare as an alternative to armored war.

But the fact that they caught on to so much else and yet missed this is cause for wonder, true enough.

 

[Life In Black]

Hmm... Any possibility of the Japanese sending large numbers of volunteers to fight in Germany? Perhaps have a corps or two fight in Barbarossa until Kursk say, then the remnants are pulled out and secretly brought back to Japan. They probably wouldn't make much of a difference in stopping the Soviets in Europe, but they could be used as the nucleus for an effective anti-Soviet force in Asia. I know this is probably ASB, but I'm just thinking out loud.

 

[Julian]

Hmm... Any possibility of the Japanese sending large numbers of volunteers to fight in Germany? Perhaps have a corps or two fight in Barbarossa until Kursk say, then the remnants are pulled out and secretly brought back to Japan. They probably wouldn't make much of a difference in stopping the Soviets in Europe, but they could be used as the nucleus for an effective anti-Soviet force in Asia. I know this is probably ASB, but I'm just thinking out loud.

And how pray tell do they get there, exactly?

Also, August Storm wasn't the actual name of the Operation, it was called the Manchurian Strategic Offensive Operation. Glantz just used the name and it stuck.

 

[Life In Black]

And how pray tell do they get there, exactly?

Getting to Germany isn't much of a problem in early '41. Tedious and long yes, but the USSR is still neutral. Leaving in mid '43, is going to be a problem, although an easy enough (I know still ASB) solution might be a joint German/Japanese transport submarine built in Germany. Perhaps the V1 and subsequent V2 are cancelled and efforts put into aiding Japan instead.

Another equally ASB possibility might be having the Waffen-SS jump ship and make their way to Japan. Perhaps after Kursk, Himmler becomes disillusioned with Hitler and decides to save his precious organization by fighting on in Japan. Again though, is the whole transportation issue.

 

[Life In Black]

Getting to Germany isn't much of a problem in early '41. Tedious and long yes, but the USSR is still neutral. Leaving in mid '43, is going to be a problem, although an easy enough (I know still ASB) solution might be a joint German/Japanese transport submarine built in Germany. Perhaps the V1 and subsequent V2 are cancelled and efforts put into aiding Japan instead.

Another equally ASB possibility might be having the Waffen-SS jump ship and make their way to Japan. Perhaps after Kursk, Himmler becomes disillusioned with Hitler and decides to save his precious organization by fighting on in Japan. Again though, is the whole transportation issue.

To add to the second scenario, another possible side effect might be a shift from the IJN to the IJA. The IJN has already been defeated, and these new arrivals might be able to convince them to halt production of naval weapons, and instead focus on things like planes, tanks and small-arms. Again, almost completely ASB I think.

 

[Evermourn]

Perhaps after Kursk, Himmler becomes disillusioned with Hitler and decides to save his precious organization by fighting on in Japan. Again though, is the whole transportation issue.

Words fail me...

 

[Life In Black]

Words fail me...

I never said it was realistic. Would a coup in the SS sound better than Himmler becoming disillusioned?

 

[Julian]

Getting to Germany isn't much of a problem in early '41. Tedious and long yes, but the USSR is still neutral. Leaving in mid '43, is going to be a problem, although an easy enough (I know still ASB) solution might be a joint German/Japanese transport submarine built in Germany. Perhaps the V1 and subsequent V2 are cancelled and efforts put into aiding Japan instead.

Another equally ASB possibility might be having the Waffen-SS jump ship and make their way to Japan. Perhaps after Kursk, Himmler becomes disillusioned with Hitler and decides to save his precious organization by fighting on in Japan. Again though, is the whole transportation issue.

Neutral doesn't mean that the USSR is going to transfer two Japanese corps TO GERMANY, much less that the Japanese would be stupid enough to agree to it when their manpower is already stretched to the limit in China.

I never said it was realistic. Would a coup in the SS sound better than Himmler becoming disillusioned?

The SS? The guys who are dedicated to the Nazi Party and Hitler? I think a coup by them is rather....unlikely.

 

[Life In Black]

Neutral doesn't mean that the USSR is going to transfer two Japanese corps TO GERMANY, much less that the Japanese would be stupid enough to agree to it when their manpower is already stretched to the limit in China.

I didn't mean through the USSR. I was thinking more along the lines of neutral shipping through the Med, or around Africa.

EDIT: Two corps is probably too much, but one might be doable.