What if there was a serious Union defeat instead of victory at Gettysburg. Let's assume that Union victories in the Western theatre still happen. I don't believe Lee could destroy the Army of the Potomac outright or force Lincoln to make peace, but how would it impact the 1864 Presidential elections?
Instead of a National Union Party, could we see War Democrats like Andrew Johnson remain in the Democratic Party. If so, does that change who the Democrats nominate? Would increased presence of War Democrats cause the Democrats to split into Pro-War and Anti-War parties?
Given that the Republicans also split into two parties (regular under Lincoln, and radicals under Fremont) before Fremont rejoined Lincoln to prevent a McClellan victory, how likely is a 4 way contest in the 1864 election?
Lastly, what are the chances that a negotiated peace would happen? I am not talking about the final terms of the negotiations, just whether any of the likely winners would feel compelled to accept an end to the war short of absolute victory. (I expect if that happens, the Confederates would be forced to accept severe territorial losses in the west since Union troops are crawling all over it).
Instead of a National Union Party, could we see War Democrats like Andrew Johnson remain in the Democratic Party. If so, does that change who the Democrats nominate? Would increased presence of War Democrats cause the Democrats to split into Pro-War and Anti-War parties?
Given that the Republicans also split into two parties (regular under Lincoln, and radicals under Fremont) before Fremont rejoined Lincoln to prevent a McClellan victory, how likely is a 4 way contest in the 1864 election?
Lastly, what are the chances that a negotiated peace would happen? I am not talking about the final terms of the negotiations, just whether any of the likely winners would feel compelled to accept an end to the war short of absolute victory. (I expect if that happens, the Confederates would be forced to accept severe territorial losses in the west since Union troops are crawling all over it).