Deep Impact in 1942

[eltf177]

Been a lurker here for a while, finally decided to get involved.

I was watching an old VHS tape the other day and saw a commerical for the (then upcoming) movie "Deep Impact". And it got me to wondering about the following scenario...

A good-sized meteorite hits the Atlantic Ocean in March, 1942 which creates a huge tidal wave. The entire east coast of the US is flooded out to the Ohio Valley, Mexico and Central America are totally wiped out as is the east coast of South America. On the other side of the Atlantic the UK is also gone as is Portugal and the west coast of Africa. Germany would lose any forces in France, Denmark and Norway but otherwise isn't be hurt. Japan and Russia aren't touched. Let's say there was just enough warning for both the USN and RN to get units out to sea so most survive.

What happens next?

I don't see the US surrendering but needless to say the huge losses hurt any chances of offensives for some time. And with the UK mostly gone I see Hitler throwing everything he can at Russia.

Any other thoughts?

 

[Emperor Qianlong]

Been a lurker here for a while, finally decided to get involved.

I was watching an old VHS tape the other day and saw a commerical for the (then upcoming) movie "Deep Impact". And it got me to wondering about the following scenario...

A good-sized meteorite hits the Atlantic Ocean in March, 1942 which creates a huge tidal wave. The entire east coast of the US is flooded out to the Ohio Valley, Mexico and Central America are totally wiped out as is the east coast of South America. On the other side of the Atlantic the UK is also gone as is Portugal and the west coast of Africa. Germany would lose any forces in France, Denmark and Norway but otherwise isn't be hurt. Japan and Russia aren't touched. Let's say there was just enough warning for both the USN and RN to get units out to sea so most survive.

What happens next?

I don't see the US surrendering but needless to say the huge losses hurt any chances of offensives for some time. And with the UK mostly gone I see Hitler throwing everything he can at Russia.

Any other thoughts?

I believe Germany would be significantly hurt, though, depending on the tidal wave. Hamburg would definitely be gone, and depending on how big the asteroid is, the entire North European plain from the Netherlands to Koenigsberg...

For a typical coastal plain it is estimated that a 10m tsunami would penetrate about 1km inland whereas a 100m tsunami would penetrate about 22km (Based on Hills and Mader 1995).

And a 1 kilometer sized asteroid would produce an about 100 meter high tsunami....

... all in all, my bet is that the war effort (on either side, really) would come to a halt. At least for Nazi Germany, the UK and probably the US as well...

 

[B_Munro]

I think the Germans will find the global freeze brought about by gigatons of stuff chucked into the upper atmosphere more of a problem than any big waves.

Bruce

 

[Max Sinister]

Germany'd be hurt? Better worry about Britain and the US. I'm no expert, but I think the effect of the tsunami would be lessened by land in its way - Britain would be between the impact site and Hamburg. (However, Ireland would be a kind of shield for Britain too.) Germany'd lose its navy and maybe the troops at the French west coast, but not much more. The Baltic would barely hit at all, since the Jutland peninsula is between. But the US would suffer much - Boston, New York, Philly, Norfolk, Savannah, Miami - all gone. The Americans might demand that FDR stops the war with Germany (if Hitler's smart, he offers peace) to care for the tens of millions dead and homeless in the east instead.

 

[Emperor Qianlong]

I think the Germans will find the global freeze brought about by gigatons of stuff chucked into the upper atmosphere more of a problem than any big waves.

Bruce

Freeze? If you have an impact in the sea, you don't get dust thrown into the atmosphere. So you don't get an impact winter. You'd need a land impact for that, and elft177 stated explicitly that the impact was at the sea.

 

[Locke]

All of this depends on how big the asteroid is. If its 1km, then not to big of a deal for Germany or probably the U.S either, but the U.K will be wiped out-London will defintely be gone, and since there would be little warning, were looking at tens of millions of people dead from the impact and its immediate affects. But afterward, there are going to be severe enviromental effects. Fish populations, as well as probably the Gulf Stream will be distrubed. But if its bigger than 1km, say 10 km, then well go the way of the dinosaurs.

 

[Locke]

ANd also, the U.S and U.K or any other navy are NOT going to get their fleets out to sea. The asteroid will come without warning-not everyone had radar back then, and i doubt theyll see it coming until its to late-so their will be no more Pacific War for a long time. But I bet some U-boats would survive.

 

[David S Poepoe]

ANd also, the U.S and U.K or any other navy are NOT going to get their fleets out to sea. The asteroid will come without warning-not everyone had radar back then, and i doubt theyll see it coming until its to late-so their will be no more Pacific War for a long time. But I bet some U-boats would survive.

The only U-Boats that survive will be those in the Baltic or in dry dock. Anything at sea will be effected by undersea shock waves. I would give surface ships a better chance.

Undoubtedly not those near by the impact zone.

 

[B_Munro]

Freeze? If you have an impact in the sea, you don't get dust thrown into the atmosphere.

Anything big enough to "send a wave to the Ohio valley" is going to carve out a humungoid crater in the seabottom and blast crap all the way into orbit. (Plus, the enormous amounts of vaporized seawater will probably have unfun effects on their own: see, Peshawar Lancers).

The real problem here is that both the movie and the original scenario have dubious physics: as you said yourself, even a 1-km meteor is only going to reach 22 km inland. If you want to wash the foothills of the Appalachians, you almost certainly need a dinosaur-killer or worse.

Bruce

 

[Qazaq2007]

You also forget that pulverized chunks of the sea floor will also be blasted into the upper atmosphere, especially w/ a large enough impactor, so you would still have a major problem w/ a post impact nuclear winter. In other words, there will still be a post impact nuclear winter, irregardless of a land or ocean impact.

 

[Tony Jones]

If you want to estimate impact effects, have a look at this.

 

[Prinz Richard Eugen]

In the movie (which I enjoyed and watch whenever it is on TV), the impact is stated to be a life-extinction event - the tidal waves were only the beginning. That's why the US (and, it is hinted, other nations) are buinding "arks" to save some of the human race. Putting the fleets to sea would help in the Pacific only until the big chill came along. We wouldn't be reading about WWII in our history books. Of couse, we wouldn't have hisory to worry about.

 

[MooreUpp]

In the movie (which I enjoyed and watch whenever it is on TV), the impact is stated to be a life-extinction event - the tidal waves were only the beginning. That's why the US (and, it is hinted, other nations) are buinding "arks" to save some of the human race. Putting the fleets to sea would help in the Pacific only until the big chill came along. We wouldn't be reading about WWII in our history books. Of couse, we wouldn't have hisory to worry about.

Yes, but they seemed to imply that after the comet split, it was only the bigger one which could cause quite those drastic of effects. They showed the smaller one hit (the 1 mile across one) and then we see the Capital being rebuilt a scene or two later.

Overall, Deep Impact is one of my favorite movies, and the science is done pretty well (compared to Armagedon at any rate), but there are definitely still problems with it. I saw a site showing the faws and what was done nicely once before and it was kind of interesting. Apparently the big broken up commet might have been worse in all those small pieces than just coming down in one chunk.

 

[Berra]

What would the cultural inpact be? Mankind has the most destructive war evver and nature just dwarf the destruction.

 

[Emperor Qianlong]

What would the cultural inpact be? Mankind has the most destructive war evver and nature just dwarf the destruction.

I think religious doomsdayers would get an incredible boost...

 

[eltf177]

I've been following everyone's replies with great interest. My original goal was to create enough damage and loss of life that it would be difficult if not impossible for the US to even consider staying in the war.

But I agree, any asteroid that would cause that much destruction would more than likely be the end of life on the planet. Therefore let me throw out a new scenario: the asteroid is much smaller, the tidal wave now only goes some 2-3 miles inland; still enough to destroy every naval base and ship-yard on the US east coast. No warning, every ship in port or near the coast is gone. The west coast of the UK as well as Portugal, Spain, France and Norway also receive significant damage.

Again, how does this change the course of the war? The US will almost certainly stay involved despite the enormous loss of life and damage. Will this affect the 'Germany First' strategy? Will aid to Russia continue? How many resources must be diverted to reopen shipyards and other infra-structure on the east coast? Obvously the Second Front will be seriously delayed by this event. Does Hitler throw everything at Russia or move more forces into North Africa? How do the Japanese react? And the massive loss of life will mean fewer US troops, which will cause much trouble as the war continues.

Very interested in hearing your views!