Decolonization of the Russian Empire

hey, all. one thing i decided on for my ASB ATL a long time ago is that the Bolsheviks never take power in Russia and, as a result, Nicholas II remains in complete control of Russia until the Depression, when another, more moderate revolution takes place which brings Russia to democracy without shooting the tsar and his family. afterwards, the Russian Federation becomes most similar, politically and socially, to OTL's United Kingdom, with a figurehead monarch, an elected Prime Minister, a functioning parliament, and the highest identifying divisions in the former Russian Empire being constituent countries

anyway, does anyone think that Russia would "decolonize" and grant independence to any of its traditional territory (such as Ukraine or the Caucasus)? and if so, which ones?
 
Well I think they would make a sort of commonwealth but more controled and With puppet strings

Poland would most Lilkly leave though

It all depends on what Russia looks like when decolonisation takes effect?
 
Well I think they would make a sort of commonwealth but more controled and With puppet strings

Poland would most Lilkly leave though

It all depends on what Russia looks like when decolonisation takes effect?
i had envisioned it basically being the same as OTL's Russian Empire just before it became the Soviet Union, give or take a bit of land; its core territories would be the same

541px-Russian_Empire_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg.png
(note: this map is from wikipedia and anachronous)
 
I see a Russian federation but maybe with a but more land,
Russia Ukraine, Belarus, Abazhakia,
(At worst)


Of course we might still have the Ukraine and Moldova in the state still to
Maybe Finland and Livonia agree to stay apart of the empire as a Wales/Scotland



I'm not sure about the Turkic people's I can see them wanting independence but maybe they would get it in te form of autonomy or devolved parliments as they may not have the military power to break free


In all fairness only you can really decide what happens based on how Russia is In the TL
 
Such a POD would probably be acceptable to most of the European elements of the Russian Empire, except for the Poles, who if allowed, would break away.
I don't see Manchuria or Mongolia being parts of the Empire (as they are on your map). They would be in the Russian "sphere of influence", at best. Ditto N. Iran.
As per other seceding areas. The Turkish portions would depend on the level of Pan-Turkish sentiment was existing at the time. This POD has so many potential butterflies that it's hard to predict if WW1 happens the same way, if post war settlements are similar, what it does to the Ottoman or post-Ottoman territories...
 
The Baltic situation would be quite interesting. Russians were planning to start a major offensive in their Russification program just before the WWI which understandably ended the program before it really even started. The plan was mostly to create and move factories to Baltic provinces and move workers there from other parts of the Empire so that in about 2-3 generations there would be Russian majority in the area. It's of course debatable how realistic this was as Soviets used much more harsher methods and didn't succeed. Latvian majority became almost plurality by late 80's in Latvia though. (In the 1989 census only 52% of Latvians were ethnic Latvians.)
 
Central Asia, the southern Caucasus, Finland, and Poland would be the most likely areas to go; I could see Russia managing to hold onto the Baltic states and the East Slavic areas of the Empire, plus of course, the eastward expanses.
 
Central Asia is unlikely to leave the Empire in my opinion, since it is highly likely that Russian settlement of the arez would have occured at a faster pace than OTL because of less demographic losses from Communism and because it was already well underway anyways by the time the First World War started.
 
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