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Was it possible in the first place? Preferably with Augustus killed or captured.

Supposing it was, with Saxony forced out of the war, Charles can now avoid his long and costly Lithuanian-Polish-Saxon campaign, which arguably cost him the war, as it allowed Peter’s Russia critical time to recover and reform, with successful advances into Ingria and the Baltic provinces until the disasters of 1705-06.

With no threat from formally neutral Poland, Charles can now commence his invasion of Russia in 1702, likely marching through Pskov-Novgorod-Tver, approaching Moscow from the north. If Peter suffers a defeat near Moscow, then the conservative elements opposed to his Westernization will likely revolt, placing his son Alexei on the throne and making peace with Sweden (what would the conditions be?). Russia’s rise is now delayed a few decades, depending. The Swedish Empire, under the Northern Alexander, now has strengthened prestige with the aura of military invincibility remaining. But I feel Charles will involve himself in more wars, rather than govern peacefully. Swedish intervention in the Spanish Succession War as a Bourbon ally or a renewed war with Denmark-Norway are always possibilities. Nevertheless, a Poltava-style defeat (in Germany) will result in the end of Swedish hegemony in the Baltic. Too many greedy enemies.

But the big winner here is Poland-Lithuania. She has avoided the devastation which caused her to become nothing more than a Russian satellite. I feel the szlachta will elect James Louis Sobieski with Augustus out of the picture. A strong-willed ruler can transform the Commonwealth before its too late. With such prospects, Poland can remain at least a middle power into the 18th century.
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