Decisive German Victory In North Africa 1942 - Timeline

You mean two years earlier with the stupidly powerful economic force known as the US helping them ever since?

Also, GERMAN forces were straining at this point. That’s why the Korps was starved of resources.

Yes two years before, left all of the equipment of their army in France for the Germans. They rebuilt their army, and were building navy and air force assets at incredible outputs and aid from the US helped a lot, but every history of WW2 British and otherwise states that mid 1942 represented a significant strategic chokepoint for Britain because of the entry of Japan into the war, creating the need to juggle defense assets to the other side of the world

I accept the absolute truth, British war material was produced in greater numbers than Germany from 1940 on, and that their alliance with the US and the USSR meant they would be on the long term winning team

But that doesn't change in mid 1942 they where in a strategic pinch right at that exact moment. By the end of the year, due to the introduction of American ground troops, that pinch was gone, for good; mid 1942 represented the last window where the Axis could strategically damage the British at all

Germany was so starved of resources that by fall of 1942 Army Group A was completely immobilized due to lack of fuel.. for months

The DAK was as well supplied as it was going to get for them in the spring of 1942; much of their historical triumph at Gazala, Tobruk and Matruh was on the back of captured British supplies from the El Adem dumps, taken by the 90th light division. For much of the battle after that, the axis where being driven in British trucks and tank, eating British food, burning British fuel and firing British ammunition
 
Okay, it does sound like you know what you're talking about and conceding the Germans' underdog status. But I'm still having real problems with "decisive German victory in North Africa" here.
 
I have done plenty of research for this time period. I was making no criticism of the British war economy. Lord Beaverbrook and his staff were nothing short of miraculous, considering the British lost nearly the entire equipment of their field army in operation Sickle. They did rebuild the army, and where spitting out more planes than Germany, and Battleships and Carriers, and still sending war goods to Russia

but the addition Japan to the mix, with the need to juggle resources to the East, many of which where unfortunately lost in the early campaigns did put Britain in a real strategic squeeze, right at this time period

I would always argue that Britain's war economy was more efficient and effective than Germanys, even if their strategic usage of those war materials wasn't always the most optimal
Which makes this thread all the more baffling. You already know how ridiculously lucky Germany and Rommel were to achieve as much as they did, you know this topic has been thrashed over almost as much as 'No Lend Lease for the USSR' and yet here we are with another rehash of the same old ideas. Its the equivalent of an author deciding that what the world really needs is another series of books about a teenage boy at Wizarding school...
 
Okay, it does sound like you know what you're talking about and conceding the Germans' underdog status. But I'm still having real problems with "decisive German victory in North Africa" here.
Perhaps because you realize anything approaching a realistic representation of Rommel and the AfrikaKorp renders such an outcome impossible?
 
Perhaps because you realize anything approaching a realistic representation of Rommel and the AfrikaKorp renders such an outcome impossible?
I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of the man, the Korps, or the North African campaign. In fact, I barely have anything and it's probably wrong. But what I do know... I can't see it happening.

(BTW, would you happen to know where an anecdote I vaguely remember came from... a German officer bemoaning to his British interrogators he didn't get to see the Pyramids, so they took him out to see them?)
 
I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of the man, the Korps, or the North African campaign. In fact, I barely have anything and it's probably wrong. But what I do know... I can't see it happening.

(BTW, would you happen to know where an anecdote I vaguely remember came from... a German officer bemoaning to his British interrogators he didn't get to see the Pyramids, so they took him out to see them?)
I've heard the story but I do not know the origin.
 

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Yeah I think you need to do some further research there, the British economy was in better shape than the German economy, it never had to ramp up to the same level of production precisely because it had the Americans and the Empire to rely on. By 1942 Germany was facing ration cuts, which in turn debilitated heavy industry. These were only reversed by the brutalties of the Hunger Plan. But of course I don't expect such facts to get in the way of the outcome you've already decided on. The Germans will be supermen and the British as weak and inept as your fantasy story requires.
Play the Ball.
 
It’s an interesting twist for a timeline. We all change an OTL event and usually it’s a bad event to make it better or a good event to make it bad (god/bad for whomevers perspective). Here it is a good event for the axis that goes even better. Unusual, but logically it remains a small deviation from otl and the butterflies follow. Quality AH.
 
I disagree. It's another timeline where one small change leads to a British collapse and the Axis get their complete wish list. It's not hard to see where this is going.
 
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I don't know if that's exactly true, it's pretty fair to judge that the 8th army was in the position that it was in, due to Britain's enormous worldwide military commitments, including the loss of all of the field equipment of their entire army in May 1940

World wide enormous Navy
World wide air force including enormous numbers of tactical and strategic squadrons based in the UK itself
Home defense/build up for Operation Round up
Divisions for the far east and threatened territories
Uboats aggressively fighting their lines of communications
Transfer of tanks, aircraft, fuel, and soft commodities to Russia to try and keep them in the war

The British war economy, by any objective measure was already being pushed to the limit, and they where increasingly reliant on what the Americans could transfer. So much as they could want to ~pour everything~ into Egypt they where limited by their very long supply line back home. So other than garrison divisions in the Mid East or Lower Egypt anything else is far off in the future. So a decision such as maybe sending the 1st Canadian Division from the Home Island to Egypt would have to take at least 60 days, I'd have to imagine sending an American division would take another 30 days past that
The British had 5 divisions that available for Torch, or Sledge Hammer. They might not be all prepared in the June period, but there would be a scramble to send what was ready to go. Shipping was always the limiting factor. The Americans were thinking of sending the1'st Armored Division to North Africa, but instead just stripped it of it's equipment, and shipped it to Egypt instead. This would be the greatest crisis of the war, pushing the Allies to the limit.

Last year I suggested the Japanese should've invaded Ceylon in April 1942. That would've created a major crisis in the Indian Ocean, endangering the Allies LOC with Suez. Coupled with your OTL the Allies long term strategy for a counter offensive against Germany in 1942 would be completely disrupted. Most members on the board are too invested in the inevitable victory of the Allies that they forget how dicey things stood, before the tide turned in the second half of 1942. Things could have gotten much worse, before it got better.
 
Last year I suggested the Japanese should've invaded Ceylon in April 1942. That would've created a major crisis in the Indian Ocean, endangering the Allies LOC with Suez. Coupled with your OTL the Allies long term strategy for a counter offensive against Germany in 1942 would be completely disrupted. Most members on the board are too invested in the inevitable victory of the Allies that they forget how dicey things stood, before the tide turned in the second half of 1942. Things could have gotten much worse, before it got better.

Your suggested timeline here requires multiple points of divergance, which is the default setting for Axis victory timelines. Unfortunately plausible alternate history it does not make.
 
Which makes this thread all the more baffling. You already know how ridiculously lucky Germany and Rommel were to achieve as much as they did, you know this topic has been thrashed over almost as much as 'No Lend Lease for the USSR' and yet here we are with another rehash of the same old ideas. Its the equivalent of an author deciding that what the world really needs is another series of books about a teenage boy at Wizarding school...
I did search the board before I started this, everything I found was variants of what if operation felix/med strat. At that point well before Barbarossa or the entry of the US into the war, Germany held the initiative and could have won such a campaign if the resources were allocated

I haven't found much in the way of mid war axis alternate histories, but would be happy if you could point me to one

The Panzer Army Africa at the battle of Gazala wasn't a paper tiger, they had nearly 200k men and just about 500 armored vehicles, and had been supplied for an offensive during the spring. Their strategic weaknesses were largely medium and long term, not day 1 of that battle problems

More to the point, the Germans had proven to that point in the war, that they could outmaneuver, and outgeneral, materially/numerically superior foes. The ground forces disparity at the start of Gazala was no worse for them on a percentage basis than Sickle cut, or any of their major victories of the first 18 months of their war with the Russians. The 8th army's command decisions before and during Gazala where just as much self destructive in their own right as much as Rommel's excellence of command in the battle
 
I disagree. It's another timeline where one small change leads to a British collapse and the Axis get their complete wish list. It's not hard to see where this is going.
Would it not likely result in A lots more dead Jews in the Middle East, potentially wiping out Israel and B The process of decolonisation will be much quicker and bloodier if the Axis can set up puppet states like Syria, Iraq and Egypt.

That said the British and France can and will use their footholds in Africa and India to send forces to retake the Middle East.


France and the UK though will likely be far weaker in both strenght and reputation after a bunch of Arab states are free, potentially for years.
 
The British had 5 divisions that available for Torch, or Sledge Hammer. They might not be all prepared in the June period, but there would be a scramble to send what was ready to go. Shipping was always the limiting factor. The Americans were thinking of sending the1'st Armored Division to North Africa, but instead just stripped it of it's equipment, and shipped it to Egypt instead. This would be the greatest crisis of the war, pushing the Allies to the limit.

Last year I suggested the Japanese should've invaded Ceylon in April 1942. That would've created a major crisis in the Indian Ocean, endangering the Allies LOC with Suez. Coupled with your OTL the Allies long term strategy for a counter offensive against Germany in 1942 would be completely disrupted. Most members on the board are too invested in the inevitable victory of the Allies that they forget how dicey things stood, before the tide turned in the second half of 1942. Things could have gotten much worse, before it got better.
The British did have a few deployable divisions at home that could be sent to Egypt, 1st Canadian off the top of my head was a very strong formation and itching at the reigns to get into the action. The problem for them or any other division sitting in England... or Louisiana... is they have to go around the cape and be deployed to Suez to fight the DAK, and then be acclimated to the desert with their equipment. If Rommel collapses the 8th Army in super Gazala, there is simply no way that fresh troops from home base could get to Alexandria before him, the only forces that could be deployed faster would be the garrisons in lower Egypt, the middle east... and maybe the Cyprus garrison (which had already been stripped to the bone to have an unfortunate go with the DAK at the knightsbridge box during Gazala)
 
I disagree. It's another timeline where one small change leads to a British collapse and the Axis get their complete wish list. It's not hard to see where this is going.
True, but it's a very plausible change. That the French held out so long, bogging down the whole Axis advance was the improbable event. Rommel may well still be stopped at El Alamein, but with his forces fresher, and better supplied he would have a much better chance of pushing through to Alexandra. Beyond that, crossing the Nile, and capturing Cairo would present no easy task. A lot would depend on the reaction of the Egyptian Army. Many officers were Arab Nationalists, that saw an Axis victory as a way of liberating Egypt from British dominance. They could go ether way, and decide the fate of Egypt. If they join the Axis Rommel's way to Suez would be eased, and what was left of 8th Army would retreat south between the Red Sea, and the Nile. The 9th Army would move to form a line at the Suez Cannel.
 
The Panzer Army Africa at the battle of Gazala wasn't a paper tiger, they had nearly 200k men and just about 500 armored vehicles, and had been supplied for an offensive during the spring. Their strategic weaknesses were largely medium and long term, not day 1 of that battle problems

More to the point, the Germans had proven to that point in the war, that they could outmaneuver, and outgeneral, materially/numerically superior foes. The ground forces disparity at the start of Gazala was no worse for them on a percentage basis than Sickle cut, or any of their major victories of the first 18 months of their war with the Russians. The 8th army's command decisions before and during Gazala where just as much self destructive in their own right as much as Rommel's excellence of command in the battle
The distances in NA are fucking huge. Progress over a division over a single road will be slow, even without opposition. And there will be at least some opposition, even if everything goes wrong or the British and everything right for the Germans. At El Alamein there's no outmanoevring possible, there won't be much left of their 500 armoured vehicles, and their supplies will be depleted. And the British will have set up some kind of defence, benefit from shorter supply lines from Alexandria, while the Germans need to get everything from their harbours in Libya and needs to be shipped by truck, taking truckloads of supplies to get the supplies at the front. NA is a logistical black hole for the Germans. And logistics weren't exactly their strong suit, to put it mildly.

All this was mentioned in your recent thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/decisive-german-victory-in-north-africa-1942.511338/
 
Would it not likely result in A lots more dead Jews in the Middle East, potentially wiping out Israel and B The process of decolonisation will be much quicker and bloodier if the Axis can set up puppet states like Syria, Iraq and Egypt.

That said the British and France can and will use their footholds in Africa and India to send forces to retake the Middle East.


France and the UK though will likely be far weaker in both strenght and reputation after a bunch of Arab states are free, potentially for years.
Possible. A couple of Jewish brigades, along with the Free French will be helping 9th Army hold the Suez Cannel. Rommel taking Egypt doesn't necessarily mean they will occupy Palestine.
 
Possible. A couple of Jewish brigades, along with the Free French will be helping 9th Army hold the Suez Cannel. Rommel taking Egypt doesn't necessarily mean they will occupy Palestine.
No, it just means Grand Mufti Ryan Gosling gets fiesty and you have a very good chance of war to the knife in what is today Israel.

Shouldn't something be available from India to ship to Egypt, however anemic?
 
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