Do you really want spoilers?
Although something I read today may lead me to alter the timeframe a bit as it is.
Decisive Darkness: What if Japan hadn't surrendered in 1945?
- Thread starter The Red
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- after 1900 japan world war ii
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Do you really want spoilers?
Although something I read today may lead me to alter the timeframe a bit as it is.
Oh this is just bound to be painful *winces*
You'll both just have to be patient then.
Given on the experience of East Germany, that's not really a tenable view. While the NKVD liquidated its share of identifiable Nazis (and a good deal of others besides), they were more interested in reopening Nazi concentration camps under new management (to liquidate class enemies more than Nazis). And for Walter Ulbricht, chasing Nazis around was, as he put it, indulging in "ancient history."
Yeah, the glory of wiping out hundreds of thousands of people. Go America!
No, the glory in watching massive airbattles and desperate hunting for kamikazeesubs as the invasionfleet nears the beaches.
Down in the Fall
”A ratio of only one American for every Japanese defender is not the recipe for victory”
~ Admiral Ernest King, August 9th, 1945
”No end in sight”
~ Conclusion of US intelligence report on Kyushu defences, July 29th, 1945
Like their Japanese enemies, the Americans had also been shocked by the daring Soviet invasion, an operation which went beyond the limits of the agreed terms at Yalta, where it had been stated that the southern part of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands would be handed over to the Soviet Union, but that there they would stop. Now they had gone further, a reality made all the more frustrating to the Truman administration by the fact that the Soviet invasion had been enabled largely by their own transfer of ships as part of Project Hula, where the Americans had sought to improve Soviet naval capacity in the Pacific to allow them an amphibious capability in the region but one meant only for the takings stated at Yalta.
The Soviet response to American enquiries into what exactly they thought they were doing was typically vague. Neither their declaration of war or the use of the new American weapon had forced the Japanese into surrender, thus their ‘liberation’ of Hokkaido had fallen within the allowance given for ‘contingencies’ agreed at Potsdam; that further, previously unplanned, operations may go ahead if the situation so required. In this action they were simply doing their best to inflict a devastating blow on the enemy that would finally bring them to the table, and endeavour in which they expected American support. When asked of their future intentions for the island they were reluctant to say anything other than the current situation would require them to occupy the island until the conclusion of the conflict with Japan. When asked if they had plans for any further ‘contingencies’, the reply was, once again, non-committal.
The fear of whether or not Stalin had a plan to move even further south and land on Honshu was now genuine. Whilst the Japanese had significant forces on the main Home Island they were largely focused on the south, and with their own attacks on the Japanese transport system they were liable to stay there. If they could land, it was quite possible the Soviets could occupy a substantial part of the islands north, and then who knows how much further if the Americans didn’t act?
Ever since the summer there had been growing evidence to show that the Japanese strength on Kyushu had been underestimated , that they had successfully placed 14 divisions on the island, at the very least equal the number of troops the Americans had planned to land on the island. In the minds of most of the American Admiralty, the most prominent of whom where King and Nimitz, this only confirmed what they had been saying all along, that an invasion of Japan was a foolhardy objective and that the planned Operation Downfall should be scrapped in favour of a continued blockade.
Whilst it’s possible the naval argument may have won out in other circumstances, the Soviets beating the Americans onto the Home Islands had been a serious blow to prestige, and the major threat of a partly or wholly communist Japan that had arisen from it could now not be ignored. The Americans could no longer afford to sit back and wait for the Japanese to starve, at this point it was still projected that the Japanese had over a year’s supply of food left in reserve, the strategy was now simply too slow and indecisive, if less costly. Now it had become important that both the international community and the public saw the Americans also storming the Japanese Home Islands, and that the Americans had an immediate presence in the area should the Soviets attempt a coup. Mac Arthur’s stance that the Japanese forces on the island had been overestimated was privately endorsed by Truman, who also stressed the need to end the war by at least 1946, something the blockade strategy could not ensure.
Downfall was back on, with the invasion of Kyushu due to take place on November 1st.
Weather pending.
”A ratio of only one American for every Japanese defender is not the recipe for victory”
~ Admiral Ernest King, August 9th, 1945
”No end in sight”
~ Conclusion of US intelligence report on Kyushu defences, July 29th, 1945
Like their Japanese enemies, the Americans had also been shocked by the daring Soviet invasion, an operation which went beyond the limits of the agreed terms at Yalta, where it had been stated that the southern part of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands would be handed over to the Soviet Union, but that there they would stop. Now they had gone further, a reality made all the more frustrating to the Truman administration by the fact that the Soviet invasion had been enabled largely by their own transfer of ships as part of Project Hula, where the Americans had sought to improve Soviet naval capacity in the Pacific to allow them an amphibious capability in the region but one meant only for the takings stated at Yalta.
The Soviet response to American enquiries into what exactly they thought they were doing was typically vague. Neither their declaration of war or the use of the new American weapon had forced the Japanese into surrender, thus their ‘liberation’ of Hokkaido had fallen within the allowance given for ‘contingencies’ agreed at Potsdam; that further, previously unplanned, operations may go ahead if the situation so required. In this action they were simply doing their best to inflict a devastating blow on the enemy that would finally bring them to the table, and endeavour in which they expected American support. When asked of their future intentions for the island they were reluctant to say anything other than the current situation would require them to occupy the island until the conclusion of the conflict with Japan. When asked if they had plans for any further ‘contingencies’, the reply was, once again, non-committal.
The fear of whether or not Stalin had a plan to move even further south and land on Honshu was now genuine. Whilst the Japanese had significant forces on the main Home Island they were largely focused on the south, and with their own attacks on the Japanese transport system they were liable to stay there. If they could land, it was quite possible the Soviets could occupy a substantial part of the islands north, and then who knows how much further if the Americans didn’t act?
Ever since the summer there had been growing evidence to show that the Japanese strength on Kyushu had been underestimated , that they had successfully placed 14 divisions on the island, at the very least equal the number of troops the Americans had planned to land on the island. In the minds of most of the American Admiralty, the most prominent of whom where King and Nimitz, this only confirmed what they had been saying all along, that an invasion of Japan was a foolhardy objective and that the planned Operation Downfall should be scrapped in favour of a continued blockade.
Whilst it’s possible the naval argument may have won out in other circumstances, the Soviets beating the Americans onto the Home Islands had been a serious blow to prestige, and the major threat of a partly or wholly communist Japan that had arisen from it could now not be ignored. The Americans could no longer afford to sit back and wait for the Japanese to starve, at this point it was still projected that the Japanese had over a year’s supply of food left in reserve, the strategy was now simply too slow and indecisive, if less costly. Now it had become important that both the international community and the public saw the Americans also storming the Japanese Home Islands, and that the Americans had an immediate presence in the area should the Soviets attempt a coup. Mac Arthur’s stance that the Japanese forces on the island had been overestimated was privately endorsed by Truman, who also stressed the need to end the war by at least 1946, something the blockade strategy could not ensure.
Downfall was back on, with the invasion of Kyushu due to take place on November 1st.
Weather pending.
sharlin
Banned
One thing about the numbers is they should not be really regarded in the Japanese favour. 14 divisions is a large number of men and civilian militia under arms but most American regiments had a far higher magnitude of firepower compaired to the Japanese who still armed their men with bolt action rifles and had little in the way of supporting machine guns and even less in the way of viable tanks with which to counter US armour and its the same on artillery, far fewer and weaker than their US counterparts.
Great stock has also been placed on the massed kamikaze waiting for the US invasion fleet but this would have been less effective than planned. The Japanese lacked the pilots, fuel, experience and skill needed to conduct effective strikes, especially if the USN did the smart thing of forming a gunline and basically going "Come at me bro!" letting the Kamikaze's impale themselves on the AA guns and CAP's of the fleet. Also the small boat kamikaze things (can't remember their name) would be rendered impotent. The US would not just send its ships and men close to Japan without first spending at least a week having carrier aircraft rampaging up and down the coast, flattening every airfield, bombing and strafing anything that looked like it could float. The Americans had become VERY good at Amphibious landings in WW2. They are not gonna go 'Merica! and put on their special retard hat and go in blind.
Great stock has also been placed on the massed kamikaze waiting for the US invasion fleet but this would have been less effective than planned. The Japanese lacked the pilots, fuel, experience and skill needed to conduct effective strikes, especially if the USN did the smart thing of forming a gunline and basically going "Come at me bro!" letting the Kamikaze's impale themselves on the AA guns and CAP's of the fleet. Also the small boat kamikaze things (can't remember their name) would be rendered impotent. The US would not just send its ships and men close to Japan without first spending at least a week having carrier aircraft rampaging up and down the coast, flattening every airfield, bombing and strafing anything that looked like it could float. The Americans had become VERY good at Amphibious landings in WW2. They are not gonna go 'Merica! and put on their special retard hat and go in blind.
Oh of course not, but there's limits to this strategy. On Okinawa the Americans had the ability to bombard every square meter of the island, yet it was still a bloodbath. In invading Kyushu they don't even have that luxury, much of the fighting will be cave by cave, pass by pass, where American advantages in armour and artillery are minimised. It seems some refused to listen to the lessons of the First World War, artillery can only conquer to a certain extent.
John Farson
Banned
What with the false and short-lived news of Japan's surrender, I imagine the U.S. forces in the Pacific (particularly those who know that they're probably gonna be landing in Japan, but also those fighting the Japanese elsewhere) are going to be very bitter and enraged towards the Japanese. Not that fighting them was a picnic to begin with, but after thinking that it was all finally over, only to be told that it wasn't...
How brutal will the fighting be from now on? I don't imagine that it'll be quite like the Germans-in-Russia, Russians-in-Germany or Japanese-in-China levels of brutality, but I do think the Americans are going to be very paranoid and with itchy trigger-fingers, shooting first and asking questions later regardless of age or gender...
How brutal will the fighting be from now on? I don't imagine that it'll be quite like the Germans-in-Russia, Russians-in-Germany or Japanese-in-China levels of brutality, but I do think the Americans are going to be very paranoid and with itchy trigger-fingers, shooting first and asking questions later regardless of age or gender...
sharlin
Banned
That depends if the Japanese plan of women armed with sharpened bamboo spears and crude explosive devices does actually come into effect
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Plus didn't the Americans already have experience in fighting cave to cave in Iwo Jima?
So the Anami will be arming the civilians with IEDs making? If the ratio does remain constant at 1:1 then I wonder how long it will go before one side gives to the other. I await your next post with horror
I like how the TL's title is a play on the 'decisive battle' concept that Japanese (or at least the Navy) were so obsessed over before the war started. Seeing how the Japanese appear to be preparing for the fight with the Americans at Kyushu while abandoning Hokkaido, what are their preparations for a possible Soviet thrust into northern Honshu?
I can only think of China, Korea and some Southeast Asian nations who might want to sign up. The problem is that much of the latter is under colonial rule, save for Thailand. Also the Philippines, once the US grants it independence.
They would most likely go ahead with it. Apparently, Japanese high school girls roped in for defence training were told to aim for the abdomen by their instructors if they had no firearms.
I can only think of China, Korea and some Southeast Asian nations who might want to sign up. The problem is that much of the latter is under colonial rule, save for Thailand. Also the Philippines, once the US grants it independence.
They would most likely go ahead with it. Apparently, Japanese high school girls roped in for defence training were told to aim for the abdomen by their instructors if they had no firearms.
The Mahnovite
Banned
After the war was over, many hidden airstrips and gunboat bases in caves were uncovered by the Americans. The suicide boats/planes were well hidden, and bombarding the landing areas would not have been a foolproof defense. The Soviets won't have to face any of that. Japan is ready to fight one last battle, with her truly mortal enemy at the time, and that is the US of A. The Soviets will have less problems, they need mostly worry about surprising the Japanese when picking a landing spot in Honshu, and making sure their supply chain can allow for a rapid pace of advance. May be a challenge, but Americans are the ones that are in for a bloodletting, this time. And yes, just like the last 2 words of the post say: ˝Weather pending˝. Gods will indeed help Japan once more.
I can see this having an extreme effect in the US psyche if this is as bloody as it's looking like it's going to be. It will either cause another bout of military isolationism, (butterflying US involvement ITTL's Korea and Vietnam wars, potentially leading to Commonwealth countries leading the anti communist fight), or leading to hyper involvement in an effort to try and lay to rest the bloody memories.
To be honest, I could see the Isolationist faction taking control.
To be honest, I could see the Isolationist faction taking control.
The Japanese hadn't really prepared for this eventuality at all. The six divisions they have in the North were primarily concerned with an American landing on the eastern coast, although they'll need to rethink things now.
The Commonwealth is not going to be able to afford to fight the Communists in TTL. The Truman Doctrine resulted from Britain not being able to support the Greek government or back Turkey against Soviet demands for "basing rights" (where have we seen this before?).
If the US goes isolationist, the Soviets will be the main beneficiary. Red or Finlandized Eurasia? Unless Chiang grows a brain, there's going to be no Taiwan. The president of Singapore said the Vietnam War bought time for the rest of SE Asia, so odds are good there'll be more Laoses and Cambodias.
(Probably not Red Malaya, at least not at first, since the Communist insurgency there was largely minority Chinese and the British fought that fight well.)
If the US goes isolationist, the Soviets will be the main beneficiary. Red or Finlandized Eurasia? Unless Chiang grows a brain, there's going to be no Taiwan. The president of Singapore said the Vietnam War bought time for the rest of SE Asia, so odds are good there'll be more Laoses and Cambodias.
(Probably not Red Malaya, at least not at first, since the Communist insurgency there was largely minority Chinese and the British fought that fight well.)
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
More like a Finlandized Asia if Stalin is pragmatic and level headed enough.
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