Decisive Darkness: What if Japan hadn't surrendered in 1945?

[MarshalBraginsky]

That's gonna affect Japanese reparations to nations it brutalized by a lot.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

With Japan being so close to a Russian puppet and the Americans more likely to level a lot more punishment on the Japanese, is it safe to assume that the economic revival Japan had otl ain't happening if not then what Asian country could act as this worlds Asian economic giant?

Well, this has a lot of butterflies in East Asia. Could easily be a unified Korea, Vietnam, or maybe even the (in TTL) much larger Nationalist China.

 

[Edward_Elric]

What is Sanzo Nosaka like?
In power, is he likely to be better or worse than Kim Il Sung?

IOTL, Sanzo Nosaka was a lifelong leader and figurehead of the JCP, and except for when the Korean war was raging, always steered the party towards achieving power peacefully. From what I've read, he doesn't exactly come across as a Kim Il-Sung type, and seems to have had more in common with Ho Chi Minh (in terms of being more well-traveled than Kim). While in China, he played a key role in re-educating captured Japanese soldiers and convincing them to fight alongside the Chinese. Given that aspect, along with the time he spent previously in the UK, the USSR, and America, it'd be interesting to see how a (North?) Japan under his leadership would act in the post-war world.

So I'm guessing in this case the Japanese won't have an economic revival if the USA opts for a far harsher penalty. Could we have an Asian equivalent of NATO where they "keep the Russians in, the Americans out and the Japanese down"?

With Japan being so close to a Russian puppet and the Americans more likely to level a lot more punishment on the Japanese, is it safe to assume that the economic revival Japan had otl ain't happening if not then what Asian country could act as this worlds Asian economic giant?

Despite the brutality of this alt-WWII's ending, I still think the superpowers will see to it that their halves of Japan get re-industrialized quickly as IOTL, like what happened IOTL to the two Koreas in the 60's and 70's.

That's gonna affect Japanese reparations to nations it brutalized by a lot.

Yeah, I'd definitely imagine war crime denialism/historical whitewashing to be a lot less prevalent ITTL.

Well, this has a lot of butterflies in East Asia. Could easily be a unified Korea, Vietnam, or maybe even the (in TTL) much larger Nationalist China.

A lot depends on how well the Red Army and the PLA perform on the mainland. With a "North Japan" almost certain to emerge as a Soviet satellite, the Kremlin will have further incentive to make their presence in Asia firm.

 

[The Red]

Only about 3 million out of the 74 million people on the Japanese home islands will be on Hokkaido, by estimates on what happened elsewhere that the Soviets invaded, some comments thought civilian casualties there would be around 400,000. So only 2.6 million left to feed.

I've read this before but I'm somewhat sceptical, the figure is partly based on the experience of Japanese settlers in Manchuria and China who were subject to violent score settling from the local populace that the Soviets did little to stop but also didn't join in. By 1945 Hokkaido is almost as ethnically homogenous as the test of the Home Islands, and the Ainu who had for years largely encouraged assimilation into Japanese society are unlikely to turn violent now unless actively encouraged by the Soviets. It also seems based on Soviet treatment of the Germans, which is again inaccurate, the Japanese had committed no atrocities on Soviet territory and whilst the Soviets didn't like the Japanese, there wasn't the same view of them as an alien menace who had to be broken as a society. A better comparison might be that of Hungary and other lesser Axis powers, where the Soviets viewed them as an enemy but not a mortal one, despite the fact Hungarians had engaged in atrocities. There the occupation was relatively light in terms of reprisals.

 

[Historyman 14]

Stalin will be kill by a Japanese gunman.

 

[mattep74]

I dont like this story after the Red Army stole US glory, but i will continue to ready anyway.

 

[The Sandman]

One of the other "fun" things about Japan not surrendering is that the strategic bombing campaign will be continuing and thus will be making the planned but never carried out IOTL shift in targets based on the post-war analysis of the campaign against Germany.

Basically, the Japanese railway net is about to cease to exist.

The effects of this, given the relative paucity of roads and the mining campaign having already crippled all seaborne transport, will be catastrophic.

 

[Curiousone]

I've read this before but I'm somewhat sceptical, ...
There the occupation was relatively light in terms of reprisals.

An improvement

I dont like this story after the Red Army stole US glory, but i will continue to ready anyway.

Ah well the Soviets did most of the dying to get to Berlin & the W/Allies got most of Germany, they're still dying ITTL to lower eventual U.S casualties.

 

[The Red]

I dont like this story after the Red Army stole US glory, but i will continue to ready anyway.

This isn't a happy TL.

Although there's still plenty of gore, er, I mean glory for the United States to acquire.

One of the other "fun" things about Japan not surrendering is that the strategic bombing campaign will be continuing and thus will be making the planned but never carried out IOTL shift in targets based on the post-war analysis of the campaign against Germany.

Basically, the Japanese railway net is about to cease to exist.

The effects of this, given the relative paucity of roads and the mining campaign having already crippled all seaborne transport, will be catastrophic.

Indeed, I did briefly touch on this in the last update, even if the Japanese had wanted to send reinforcements to Hokkaido the battering of the transport system had made it all but impossible.

 

[DTanza]

I dont like this story after the Red Army stole US glory, but i will continue to ready anyway.

Yeah, the glory of wiping out hundreds of thousands of people. Go America!

 

[The Mahnovite]

Yeah, I'd definitely imagine war crime denialism/historical whitewashing to be a lot less prevalent ITTL.

A Communist Japan would be the best and easiest way to reduce warcrime denial, by far. Japan was drawn into the American, anti-Communist sphere of influence IOTL, and that was achieved by being fairly lenient on those militarists who were anti-Communists. But at the same time, Japanese national pride had been shattered by the occupation(which lasts to this very day, in a way), and the harshly imposed constitution. Under Sanzo Nosaka, I think Japan would be pacifist, but because they want it. That avoids the bipolar state of the Japanese society, and the tensions visible in the foreign policy of Japanese governments that we see in real life.

 

[MerryPrankster]

You referenced the full conquest of Hokkaido taking until the end of September. However, Kokura was on August 14th.

Has the US done anything else in the meantime?

The Okinawa typhoon isn't due until October. The planned invasion of Kyushu wasn't slated until November, although with the Soviets attacking from the north I could imagine it could be rushed forward.

There's also Malaya and the planned Free Thai uprising. The latter was slated for August (OTL's V-J Day specifically), so that could get interesting (in the Chinese sense).

 

[The Mahnovite]

You referenced the full conquest of Hokkaido taking until the end of September. However, Kokura was on August 14th.

Has the US done anything else in the meantime?

The Okinawa typhoon isn't due until October. The planned invasion of Kyushu wasn't slated until November, although with the Soviets attacking from the north I could imagine it could be rushed forward.

There's also Malaya and the planned Free Thai uprising. The latter was slated for August (OTL's V-J Day specifically), so that could get interesting (in the Chinese sense).

If the rushed invasion preparations run smack into the typhoon timeframe, that'll ruin American plans. And give Japanese a morale booster shot of epic proportions.

I don't know much about the way how surrenders were handled throughout wars in general, in RL, but...is it possible for Japan to surrender primarily to the Soviets, so that they are the one dictating the terms, not Americans?

 

[The Red]

I don't know much about the way how surrenders were handled throughout wars in general, in RL, but...is it possible for Japan to surrender primarily to the Soviets, so that they are the one dictating the terms, not Americans?

The Allies had agreed that none of them would make a separate peace with Japan (it was actually Stalin who pushed for this out of fear that the Japanese wouldn't recognise or even continue fighting for the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin), the Japanese likely would have given up on the idea of getting the Soviets over to their side by this point regardless, after months of wasted effort had led to the exact opposite outcome.

Merry, the scale of this TL, and the format of the updates, means I'll be hopping about a bit timeframe wise to fill in what's happening in different areas. Though the Soviets have reached late September, I'm not finished with the period.

 

[The Mahnovite]

The Allies had agreed that none of them would make a separate peace with Japan (it was actually Stalin who pushed for this out of fear that the Japanese wouldn't recognise or even continue fighting for the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin), the Japanese likely would have given up on the idea of getting the Soviets over to their side by this point regardless, after months of wasted effort had led to the exact opposite outcome.

Merry, the scale of this TL, and the format of the updates means I'll be hopping about a bit timeframe wise to fill in what's happening in different areas. Though the Soviets have reached late September, I'm not finished with the period.

So, even if Soviets reach Tokyo first, the makeup of postwar Japan won't be completely decided by them?

 

[John Farson]

So, even if Soviets reach Tokyo first, the makeup of postwar Japan won't be completely decided by them?

Just how do you expect the Soviets to reach Tokyo first? Taking Hokkaido is one thing, landing in Honshu and taking the whole northern half, with the Soviets' naval resources - and the American mining around the island - is another thing entirely.

Just as the Allies were content to let the Soviets do the lion's share of destroying the Heer and suffering the majority of the casualties, likewise I imagine the Soviets will be content to take what low-hanging fruit they can and let the Americans pay the butcher's bill in subduing Japan for good.

 

[The Mahnovite]

Just how do you expect the Soviets to reach Tokyo first? Taking Hokkaido is one thing, landing in Honshu and taking the whole northern half, with the Soviets' naval resources - and the American mining around the island - is another thing entirely.

Just as the Allies were content to let the Soviets do the lion's share of destroying the Heer and suffering the majority of the casualties, likewise I imagine the Soviets will be content to take what low-hanging fruit they can and let the Americans pay the butcher's bill in subduing Japan for good.

Paratroopers. And during the Hokkaido invasion, I don't think any losses in shipping occurred. I believe they have minesweepers available, as well.

 

[John Farson]

Paratroopers. And during the Hokkaido invasion, I don't think any losses in shipping occurred. I believe they have minesweepers available, as well.

I present to you this post from The Red in the WI: Soviet Invasion of Honshu thread:

The task of invading Hokkaido would to have fallen on the 87th Rifle Corps and was planned to go ahead on August the 21st. However unexpectedly heavy resistance on the Russian takeover of Sakhalin meant that the Hokkaido operation was moved to August 24th or 25th. The landings would have occurred at Rumoi, and though the Soviet assault fleet could be considered rag tag in comparison to the American fleet gahering for the invasion of Kyushu, there was far less potential for Japanese resistance on Hokkaido. The Japanese had thrown everything into a decisive battle with the Americans in the south and it's likely they could carry the invasion against poorly trained civilians usually only armed with muskets, swords and spears.

This invasion of the Japanese homeland would be coming a full 2 months earlier than the planned date invasion of Kyushu, and the typhoons that year would likely delay the American attack even further, into November. It's likely that over the autumn and the winter the Soviets would have secured Hokkaido and would be ready to advance on norther Honshu. Logistical problems would be the major delay in Soviet operations by this point, similar to Manchuria, and there was little more in northern Honshu than there was in Hokkaido. As the original Americna plan was to invade Honshu in March 1946, it's likely the Soviets beat them there, if the Japanese somehow haven't surrendered yet.

Logistics will continue to delay the Soviet advance, Japanese ports were badly hammered and supplies were will largely rely on what they can land on the beaches and what they can drop by air. This sluggish advance will allow what few forces the Japanese have in the area to better defend against it, although this will be more of a nusiance by this point, the combined factors of fanatical resistance and logistical nightmare will likely ensure the Americans occupy the vast majority of the island by the time the Japanese would finally collapse, likely around April/May 1946.

And there's CalBear's post:

More or less impossible. The Soviets had nowhere near the necessary sea lift to pull it off. Even Hokkaido would be a huge stretch, and would only be possible if the war up until August 1, with the USN having utterly obliterated the IJN, American invasions having pushed Japan all the way back to the Home Islands and the USAAF having burned a good part of urban Japan to the ground.

Without the U.S. having more or less strangled the Empire, there would be no way for the Soviets to cross the Sea of Japan. If the U.S. had reached that point, there is no way the U.S. allows the Red Army to cross to Honshu. It is worth keeping in mind that the most powerful ship in the Soviet Pacific Fleet was a light cruiser (and that the entire Pacific Fleet surface combat component consisted of two fairly elderly light cruisers and 10 destroyers along with light forces). That is hardly enough of a force to even think about making an opposed landing.

So while the Soviets might, might be able to grab a tiny tip of northern Honshu, there is no way that they overrun the vast majority of Japan before the Americans do, they don't have the logistics for it and they don't have the manpower for it, as the majority of available troops will be deployed in Manchuria, Korea, Sakhalin, the Kuriles and of course Hokkaido. Frankly, a successful Soviet landing in Hokkaido and its occupation should by itself have scared even this alt-fanatical military regime into surrendering to the US. Much as they hated and feared America, they feared the Soviets even more.

 

[The Red]

I present to you this post from The Red in the WI: Soviet Invasion of Honshu thread:

Just to clarify, this isn't necessarily going to happen in this TL, it was more musings which I've developed my position since thanks to the discussions with, and evidence provided by, others.

That said, the 3-4 divisions the Soviets could hope to supply on Honshu just wouldn't be able to occupy the Kanto Plain, where literally tens of millions of people resided, not to mention the high chance that the Soviets would be destroyed by the far more numerous and relatively better supplied Japanese divisions waiting on an invasion from the East. Although I'm guessing Manhovite wasn't seriously suggesting that they could achieve this.

 

[d32123]

How far out are you planning on taking this TL?