Decisive Darkness: What if Japan hadn't surrendered in 1945?

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Looking forward to how the Red Army/Soviet Navy fairs in TTL.

I wonder what role Sanzo Nosaka (founder of the JCP) will have, if any, in post-war Japan - especially if the country ends up divided with a Hokkaido-centered people's republic set up by the Reds.
 
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Japanese officers were given orders to ignore isolated tactical use of gas by the Americans in the event of an invasion of the home islands. They understood use of gas went well against them.

The June 1945 report, A Study of the Possible Use of Toxic Gas in Operation Olympic, identified fifty urban and industrial targets, including twenty-five cities that were particularly susceptible to gas attack and concluded that "Gas attacks of the size and intensity recommended on these 250 square miles of urban population … might easily kill 5,000,000 people and injure that many more."

With Japan's predictable wind patterns, the US Army's fifty million chemical artillery shells, the US Army Air Corps million bombs, and 100,000 aircraft spray tanks, the Japanese really don't want to start a Chemical fight.

I wonder what role Sanzo Nosaka (founder of the JCP) will have, if any, in post-war Japan - especially if the country ends up divided with a Hokkaido-centered people's republic set up by the Reds.

His indoctrination tactics could certainly come in handy, 'National Committee for a Free Japan' anyone?
 
Japanese officers were given orders to ignore isolated tactical use of gas by the Americans in the event of an invasion of the home islands. They understood use of gas went well against them. They had no practical delivery systems, it's a great way of getting rid of entrenched troops which they'd hoped to use & the winds didn't favour it either.
I agree with the wind hazard, and that is why poison gas usage is risky. But on delivery methods I must disagree. Japan had the artillery to do it(Source that tells of the 90mm mortar), it was a matter of concealing it that could be an issue. I could even see a fanatic soldier detonating a shell himself. But those ignore-gas orders would probably keep the shells stored away.
 
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Rumoi

”It should be clearly made known to Russia that she owes her victory over Germany to Japan, since we remained neutral, and that it would be to the advantage of the Soviets to help Japan maintain her international position, since they have the United States as an enemy in the future.”

~Suzuki Kantarō

”Here they found real war.”

~ Georgy Zhukov, 1944


On August 25th the invasion of the Home Islands began.

To the shock of the Japanese Supreme Council now huddled under the mountains of Nagano, it did not arrive in the area of the ‘Decisive Battle’, where the Japanese had planned and prepared so meticulously, nor was the force carried by the armada the Americans had amassed. Instead, it would be 6 assault craft escorted by the modest 4 destroyers and 6 torpedo boats of the Red Banner Pacific Fleet, carrying the first echelon of the 87th Rifle Corps, as they charged into the port of Rumoi on western Hokkaido. Hours earlier Soviet airborne forces had dropped just outside the area, securing the airfield that would facilitate the hastily planned Soviet conquest .

In the two hours it had taken to land the remainder of the lead rifle division, the small port had already been secured. Of the two Japanese divisions responsible for the defence of the island the first was focused west, preparing for the unlikely prospect of an American invasion. The other was based around the coastal fortress of Wakkanai on the islands northernmost point, in the belief that the Soviets would only have the capacity to transport a force directly across the La Perouse strait that lay between Hokkaido and Sakhalin, blissfully unaware that since the early Spring the the greatest naval transfer in history was taking place between the Americans and the Soviets in the name of greatly increasing the Soviets naval capacity before their planned entry into the war. This fatal ignorance had left the Rumoi region with only a single coastal defence site, based twenty miles away, and now mercilessly trampled by swarms of Pe-2’s and Il-2’s that had brought their European allies such sorrow.

The four Soviet submarines tasked with alerting their comrades to any Japanese naval response were satisfactorily bored as they continuously reported that they saw nothing amiss. Whilst even a year beforehand the Japanese navy would have made any such landing a suicide mission for a Soviet flotilla, the once mighty fleet had been so relentlessly battered by the navies of the Soviets Anglo-American allies, that they remaining ships had all been pulled south, awaiting the expected American invasion, the same went for the Japanese air force, whose few units in the area could offer little resistance to wave after wave of Soviet dive bombers and fighters.Thus the Soviets quickly linked up with their airborne forces. All that was left in defence of the port and region was the militias of the Civilian ‘Volunteer’ Corps, woefully unequipped and inexperienced old men and young boys who had been press ganged to make-up for the deficit in real troops. Most chose to hide at the sight of the battle hardened veterans of the European conflict , others chose to resist with their collection of muskets, shotguns and bamboo spears, and met a predictable fate. On the first day the Soviets had secured the region and continued to land further troops from an array of craft.

The first Allied beachhead had been secured in a decisive battle, but with a whimper of resistance.
From the Fifth Area Army headquarters in Sapporo there was no whimpering, only panic. The Soviets had overestimated the strength of the Japanese, but the Japanese commanders now thrust into combat were aware of exactly how measly their forces were. As the Soviets consolidated their position, frantic calls to Nagano went out, when could reinforcements be sent? The inquiries went unanswered, the Supreme Council had not expected a Soviet invasion, or at least that it would come so quickly with their supposedly tiny naval forces, now that it had arrived there was little that could be done. Since early August the Americans had been heavily mining the Tsushima strait between Honshu and Hokkaido, whilst also hammering the transport links which connected Northern Honshu from the more populous south, and destroying most large Japanese ships in the area. Whilst this had been done in the name of separating the South of Japan from the majority of their domestic food production, it had also rendered any meaningful reinforcement of Hokkaido impossible. To the dismay of, Kiichiro Higuchi, the Fifth Area Army’s Commanding Officer, the eventual reply from the Supreme Council only reiterated these facts. “There can be no meaningful reinforcement of your position until the situation in the South has been resolved.” Hokkaido had been effectively abandoned.

Although the Japanese situation appeared bleak, the fight was not over yet. Whilst striking south to capture the poorly defended Sapporo seemed attractive to Soviet planners it was not yet realistic. The landing in Rumoi had taken place at the very limits of Soviet air cover, if they struck south before squadrons could be established on the island, they would have to go without that critical advantage, supply also raised concerns, unhindered the Soviets would eventually be able to reliably supply three divisions from Rumoi but if the forces already on the island where to advance south too quickly, supply would become dangerously unreliable making the front vulnerable to even a weak Japanese counter-attack. To secure the island as quickly as possible the decision had been made to move North and West, to secure an air presence on the island and improve the supply capability, the strategy that was necessary, but would also put the advance right into the path of the waiting Japanese forces.

In the north the troops of the Japanese 42nd division were little more experienced or better equipped than the civilian militia’s, however their greater knowledge of the land and the time they had to prepare allowed them to delay the Soviet advance until they were eventually broken by the Soviet air force, nonetheless the Wakkanai fortress held out bitterly for several days after resistance in the rest of the island had ceased, and only capitulated after being stormed by Soviet troops in late September. In the west the battle hardened forces of the 7th Division made the fight in the mountains around Toshio and Tomuraushi as nightmarish as they had for the US Marine Corps in the jungles of Guadalcanal, but as they inflicted heavy casualties on the Soviets further forces were landed, whilst they had no means to supplant their own losses, by September 16th they had also buckled. Now there was little else to oppose the Soviets on the island, and they quickly set about occupying the remainder. As they advanced south the defensive position of Sapporo was little better, leaving the Fifth Area Army’s Headquarters to either flee or commit suicide in the face of their collapse. By the end of September effective resistance had ceased.

The Soviets had conquered Japan’s northernmost island, the Soviets had no means yet of landing on northern Honshu, but the shock echoed from Nagano to Washington, as both were now forced to look at the board to see a completely changed game...
 
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Curiousone

Banned
Rumoi

”It should be clearly made known to Russia that she owes her victory over Germany to Japan, since we remained neutral, and that it would be to the advantage of the Soviets to help Japan maintain her international position, since they have the United States as an enemy in the future.”

~Suzuki Kantarō

”Here they found real war.”

~ Georgy Zhukov, 1944


On August 25th the invasion of the Home Islands began.

as they charged into the port of Rumoi on western Hokkaido.

... Of the two Japanese responsible for the defence of the island the first was focused west, preparing for the unlikely prospect of an American invasion.

... To secure the island as quickly as possible the decision had been made to move North and West,

Rumoi on the West, yes.

Defenders facing the Americans at Kushiro & the Soviet advance in that direction heading to the East.

You likely picked that up from me in a previous thread. Mea cupla, little dyslexic ha.

Otherwise, wow, yeah.

Other weapons the Americans/Brits will be able to employ.
The first generation of Fuel-Air Explosives.
(Talked about in this, http://www.amazon.com/War-2080-Future-Military-Technology/dp/0688034268 , they were trying to figure out compounds which worked, Ethylene-Oxide was it but was just too late for WW2 OTL.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon
"significantly more energetic than conventional condensed explosives of equal weight"
"They do however cause considerably more destruction when used inside confined environments such as tunnels, caves, and bunkers").
V1 copies, early APC's.
 
Wow. Soviets are fast. They ought to get in on Honshu ASAP, get communist guerrillas recruited from the population. A potential new puppet awaits- with naval tradition to boot. Something Soviets lacked. The sentence by Kantaro Suzuki, is that a real-life quote? And is it maybe foreshadowing a hasty Japanese surrender, in hopes of fighting Americans one day, alongside USSR?
 

John Farson

Banned
In the two hours it had taken to land the remainder of the lead rifle division, the small port had already been secured. Of the two Japanese responsible for the defence of the island the first was focused west, preparing for the unlikely prospect of an American invasion.

The sentence is incomplete. You meant two divisions, right?

The other was based around the coastal fortress of Wakkani on the islands northernmost point

I believe it's spelled Wakkanai.

Otherwise it's a decent addition. But I believe this is as far as the Soviets will go, in Japan at least. There's still Manchuria and northern China, after all. I imagine the Japanese collapse in the north will also effect the front in southern China.
 
Rumoi on the West, yes.

Defenders facing the Americans at Kushiro & the Soviet advance in that direction heading to the East.

You likely picked that up from me in a previous thread.

Ah, yes, thanks for pointing out these typos guys, was in something of a rush to get this up as my laptop was running out of charge. :eek:

The sentence by Kantaro Suzuki, is that a real-life quote? And is it maybe foreshadowing a hasty Japanese surrender, in hopes of fighting Americans one day, alongside USSR?

It is indeed, Suzuki wrote that in the Summer of 1945, it may or may not be foreshadowing. ;)

Otherwise it's a decent addition. But I believe this is as far as the Soviets will go, in Japan at least. There's still Manchuria and northern China, after all. I imagine the Japanese collapse in the north will also effect the front in southern China.

I'll cover the events in China from August-October 1945 soon, the collapse of the Kwantung Army might be good for the front but not necessarily good for the Chinese.
 
So how many Japanese civilians would be killed in this conflict? Moreover, how will post-war politics play out now that Japan might be far more broken than usual, especially the sensitive topic of the "Golden Lily" loot they stashed in the Philippines?
 
Ironically, given the oncoming famine and civil unrest Hokkaido might now be the best place to be a Japanese civilian. Sure, its occupied by the Soviet military... but at least the bombing has stopped and the Soviets will probably make an effort to provide at least a minimum amount of food for the locals as a PR stunt. They did the same in Eastern Europe, after all.
 

Curiousone

Banned
Ironically, given the oncoming famine and civil unrest Hokkaido might now be the best place to be a Japanese civilian. Sure, its occupied by the Soviet military... but at least the bombing has stopped and the Soviets will probably make an effort to provide at least a minimum amount of food for the locals as a PR stunt. They did the same in Eastern Europe, after all.

It'll help (those on Hokkaido) that Hokkaido's an agricultural area. Everywhere else on the Home Islands it'll be worse for that reason.

Rumoi

..the battle hardened forces of the 7th Division made the fight in the mountains around Toshio and Tomuraushi as nightmarish as they had for the US Marine Corps in the jungles of Guadalcanal, but as they inflicted heavy casualties on the Soviets further forces were landed, whilst they had no means to supplant their own losses, by September 16th they had also buckled.
...

That 7th Division only had 140 men come back from Guadalcanal. The rest would have been filler.

So how many Japanese civilians would be killed in this conflict? Moreover, how will post-war politics play out now that Japan might be far more broken than usual, especially the sensitive topic of the "Golden Lily" loot they stashed in the Philippines?

"Decisive Darkness". Many, all too easily unfortunately.
 

Curiousone

Banned
I thought the 1945 harvest had been an utter wash though?

There's a previous thread. The 1945 harvest was late 1945, it was something like 6.5 instead of the pre-war rough 10 million tonnes. The populace was already getting too few calories (slowly starving), 1800ish a day. By Jan-Feb 46 OTL it got down to around 900 & rapid U.S aid prevented catastrophe.

The U.S had OTL in Aug 1945 estimated there was 18months food reserves. Note in the debate over invasion/blockade strategies the Navy thought 18months was how long blockade would take. There was in reality only four days stock.

If you look on google maps at the North-West tip (zoom in) of Hokkaido one of the photos is of some dairy cows. Large island, few people: probably had much of what cattle they had.

Only about 3 million out of the 74 million people on the Japanese home islands will be on Hokkaido, by estimates on what happened elsewhere that the Soviets invaded, some comments thought civilian casualties there would be around 400,000. So only 2.6 million left to feed.
 
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There's a previous thread. The 1945 harvest was late 1945, it was something like 6.5 instead of the pre-war rough 10 million tonnes.

What percentage of that was on Hokkaido?

By Jan-Feb 46 OTL it got down to around 900 & rapid U.S aid prevented catastrophe.

Ouch, and that was without the war inhibiting transportation and everything else...
 

Curiousone

Banned
What percentage of that was on Hokkaido?

Ouch, and that was without the war inhibiting transportation and everything else...

Difficult to find exact figures but it was weather related, with Typhoons at least the paths are over the Pacific side of Japan.

http://media.desura.com/images/groups/1/11/10968/japan_land_1971.jpg

http://www.phoenixbonsai.com/bigpicture/PostWarJapan.html

"In early 1946 it was reported that the three most popular activities among small boys and girls were holding a mock black market, playing prostitute and customer, and recreating left-wing political demonstrations."

"Food shortages had begun to appear in some parts of the country even before Pearl Harbor. A majority of the Japanese already were malnourished at the time of surrender. In 1944, officials in Osaka prefecture estimated that 46% of all economic crimes in their jurisdiction involved food. Hunger was compounded by a disastrous harvest (1945 was the worst since 1910, a shortfall of almost 40% from normal yield) and exacerbated by the confusion, corruption, and ineptitude of the postsurrender elites."
 
So I'm guessing in this case the Japanese won't have an economic revival if the USA opts for a far harsher penalty. Could we have an Asian equivalent of NATO where they "keep the Russians in, the Americans out and the Japanese down"?
 
With Japan being so close to a Russian puppet and the Americans more likely to level a lot more punishment on the Japanese, is it safe to assume that the economic revival Japan had otl ain't happening if not then what Asian country could act as this worlds Asian economic giant?
 
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