Decision Points: The Presidency of Al Gore

Guess McCain read about what happened with Carter.

That's a part of it. I view McCain as a very principled man, yet also a pragmatist who understands that success requires compromise. An excellent example is his infamous "build the dang fence" ad in the 2010 Senate race.
 
That's a part of it. I view McCain as a very principled man, yet also a pragmatist who understands that success requires compromise. An excellent example is his infamous "build the dang fence" ad in the 2010 Senate race.

If I'm in politics, I wouldn't mind going along with the wheeling and dealing. Clinton never had a problem. Also, I have ideas for energy reform. I'm gonna send them to you. Please use them.
 
Hcallega, I'm gonna send you the ideas I've found, you select them and use them in the Energy Plan ITTL. Here is one, retiring old and unsafe nuclear power plants (Such as Salem, Diablo Canyon, Indian Point, and Vermont Yankee to name a few) and replacing them with Generation III+ Reactors, such as the ACR-1000, Mitsubishi APWR, the ESBWR, and the Westinghouse AP1000.
 
I appreciate the suggestions guys, but I'm pretty comfortable with the direction of this timeline. The McCain energy plan will be revealed pretty soon, as will his foreign policy.
 
A New Sheriff

The first few months of 2005 gave President McCain an opportunity to redefine America’s foreign policy. Democrats had guided the country over the past twelve years with policies that McCain derisively labeled “pounding sand.” A focus on limited engagement and Special Forces operations effectively limited American land engagements overseas. But, in the eyes of the new President, it had failed to effectively defeat the country’s enemies. 9/11, the emergence of al-Qaeda and the beginning of the war on terror required a firmer posture overseas. But McCain and his advisers believed that the last Administration failed to do that. They were too focused on appeasing their allies instead of beating their enemies. It didn’t help that many of those “allies” were countries like Pakistan and Russia, not the greatest bedfellows for the world’s leading democracy. The President wanted a major, top-to-bottom, overhaul of American foreign policy, with a new focus on taking the lead and actively confronting terrorists and their allies overseas.

But before McCain could tackle America’s enemies, he had to work with its allies. The tsunami that rocked Southeast Asia at the end of 2004 had turned into a major disaster. Early estimates showed that potentially over 200,000 people had died as a result. Making matters worse, many of the worst hit countries lacked the appropriate infrastructure and technology to effectively respond. A strong, international response was required, and President McCain was ready to do what was necessary to mitigate the effects of this humanitarian disaster. Outgoing President Gore had already deployed resources to Asia, including an aircraft carrier used to deploy helicopters for rescue and relief. McCain added to this effort, committing more money, resources, and support for the affected region. He also called on former Presidents Clinton and Bush to take the lead in fundraising for relief efforts, a task they achieved with flying colors.
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With an early success in Asia, President McCain’s focus turned towards the two biggest problems facing America’s foreign policy and national security: Afghanistan and the war on terror. Afghanistan was a tough issue. Candidate McCain actively criticized Al Gore for his war policy. He saw the American mission as too limited in manpower and too focused on “nation-building.” But upon taking office, there were few easy choices for the new President. CENTCOM Commander Michael DeLong met with McCain and his foreign policy principals (Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, Richard Armitage, Randy Scheunemann, George Tenet) in early January to present the possible options in Afghanistan. The first was to “stay-the-course.” This meant maintaining the basic framework of the Gore Administration’s policy: a focus on an international effort to rebuild Afghanistan, train and arm their military, and employ Special Forces in targeting al-Qaeda leaders. This was a non-starter for McCain, who had little desire to continue what he saw as a major foreign policy failure. The second option went to the extreme: establish a timetable for withdrawal and make it clear to the Afghans that they “shape up, or we’re shipping out.” By creating deadlines and requirements for the relatively new regime, the United States could force Afghanistan to rebuild while bringing home American troops. This strategy was appealing in that it would give the US greater flexibility to deploy forces in other areas of the world. It was also endorsed by Secretary Hagel. But with the assumption that America could fight two ground wars simultaneously, and McCain’s gut opposition to ending a war before it was won, this strategy received little traction. The third and final strategic option was the most appealing to the President. The United States would “go-long” in Afghanistan. They would deploy a new division of ground troops into the region with the explicit goal of defeating al-Qaeda and the renewed Taliban insurgency. They would be joined by the troops already stationed in Afghanistan, whose role would change from training the Afghan military and building up infrastructure to fighting the enemy. Despite reluctance from both Powell and Hagel, McCain endorsed this plan. In his first address to Congress in February, the President reiterated that “the United States will not forget its commitment to the people of Afghanistan. We will not allow the Taliban to return to power, and we will never concede a safe haven to al-Qaeda.”

The reaction to the President’s troop surge was mixed. Liberal Democrats and isolationist Republicans protested the decision, but they were too few and far between to make much of an impact. The grand majority of the Republican Party rallied behind the President, while many Democrats endorsed the move or took a “wait and see” approach. The most shocking endorsement came from former Vice-President Joe Lieberman. As the second-highest ranking member of the previous Administration, Lieberman’s support for a major policy shift in America’s largest foreign policy conflict made front-page news. The former VP made the announcement during an interview on Good Morning America. When asked about Afghanistan, Lieberman said “I’ve known this President for an awfully long time, and I trust his judgment just as I trusted the last President’s. And when it comes to Afghanistan, I firmly believe that we must finish the mission. The decision to send more ground troops there shows he’s committed to that goal.” McCain’s closest friend in the Senate, John Kerry, offered a far bleaker outlook: “The President’s correct that the mission in Afghanistan is off paramount importance. But there’s a legitimate question over whether more American soldiers will solve the problem. I think it’s time for the Afghan people to take the lead.” Polls reflected this division, though a majority did support the surge. Many foreign leaders, such as French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Edmund Stoiber, distanced themselves from the United States, while British Prime Minister Tony Blair unequivocally stood behind the White House: “President McCain is right. Afghanistan must never again become a terrorist hotbed. The United Kingdom will do its part to help prevent that.” Within Afghanistan, the government endorsed the decision. President Massoud and his National Front Party strongly supported the surge, while Prime Minister Hamid Karzai and parliament approved the surge with “serious reservations” and “a hope for a renewed commitment to (Afghan) self-determination.”
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With the Afghanistan issue taken care of in the short term, the focus shifted to how to deal with state sponsors of terrorism. This was one of Senator McCain’s greatest bludgeons during the campaign. He repeatedly attacked President Gore for doing too little against nation-states that supported terrorist organizations through training, funding, or intelligence support. But once again, governing on this issue proved more difficult than campaigning. Several different sides pulled at the new President, both from within the Administration and from the outside. UN Ambassador John Bolton, joined by a growing chorus of neo-conservative activists, called for preparations to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein. This had been one of their goals for years, and had a decent level of support from voters. Many hawks in Congress actively petioned McCain to move hard against the Hussein Regime. But the President was not going to rush into a war without an appropriate reason. As he told his cabinet, “Saddam Hussein being a bad man does not justify sending our troops into harm’s way.” CIA Director George Tenet was tasked with determining whether or not Iraq posed a “significant and identifiable risk” to America’s allies and assets in the region on McCain’s first day in office. This would take several weeks to months to complete. In the mean-time, the Administration leveled tough new sanctions against Iran, Iraq, Syria, and North Korea. In the case of Iraq, these were largely symbolic. The UN had already placed what amounted to an embargo on Iraq in 1990, but the McCain Administration was still eager to bear their teeth in foreign policy.

In more practical terms, the McCain Presidency represented an increased role of the US special operations in the war on terror. Under President Gore, predator drones had been employed in a limited capacity by the CIA and Department of Defense. Director Tenet was hesitant to unleash the program, fearing it would turn public opinion against the United States and ultimately backfire. Secretary of Defense John Hamre was also skeptical, primarily because of concerns that too great a focus on unmanned warfare would detract from the standing army. Nonetheless, drones were still employed by the previous administration in a limited capacity. President McCain looked forward to the possibility of using the program to its full capacity. His first decision was to transfer and consolidate drone authority in the Department of Defense. Doing so created greater accountability and transparency for the American people, and helped to defuse concerns that the program could eliminate targets in secret and indiscriminately. McCain also increased America’s role in training anti-terror forces around the globe. Advisers were deployed to an increased number of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in an effort to root out “not just radical jihadist terrorism, but terrorism of any sort.”

After almost two months of additional research and intelligence gathering, George Tenet presented his report on Iraq to the President and his advisors. The report came at the end of March, with the President’s approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s and the public generally united behind the Commander-in-Chief. McCain was anxious to know what one of America’s oldest enemies was up to. Tenet more than answered that question. It was his opinion that Iraq was not actively pursuing a chemical or nuclear weapons program. Building upon intelligence gathered during the Gore Administration, Tenet concluded that despite Hussein’s frequent posturing and saber rattling, Iraq had not made any serious efforts to purchase or develop weapons of mass destruction. He listed several reasons for this, including America’s willingness to deploy ground troops into Afghanistan. While Tenet conceded that Iraq could seek out such weapons in the future, this was unlikely as long as the United States retained its aggressive posture internationally. Second, Hussein’s regime was not actively supporting or assisting al-Qaeda or Osama bin Laden. The two men had little in common. Hussein was a Ba’athist, a generally secular ideology, while bin Laden was a radical Sunni. In fact, bin Laden had even offered to defend Saudi Arabia from Iraq during the Gulf War, only to be denied. Furthermore, Hussein was a wise enough politician to avoid working with an international terrorist whom the United States wanted dead or alive. Finally, Tenet concluded that Iraq was not a threat to the region. As long as Iran and Saudi Arabia remained strong powers, Iraq would not attempt a regional power grab akin to the Gulf War. Their military was too week, and the threat of American intervention too likely, for Iraq to attempt such a bold endeavor.
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With the facts on the table, McCain was forced to think seriously about how to proceed. It was clear that Iraq did not pose an immediate or serious threat to the region. They lacked the capacity and the will to invade or strike any of its neighbors. Nor was Saddam Hussein supporting terrorism. The rationale for war was weak, but there were still compelling arguments for a military intervention. The primary argument of the neo-cons was that replacing Iraq’s Ba’athist dictatorship with a pro-American democracy would lead to greater peace, stability, and freedom within the region. It was something a 21st century domino theory: once one authoritarian regime fell to the forces of democracy, the others would soon follow suit. McCain liked this idea, but very much doubted its practicality, a view shared by Powell and Hagel. The Middle East wasn’t some laboratory in an Ivy League University. It was an ancient region of the world, where different religions and cultures intertwined. Simply inserting a democratic regime into countries governed by tradition and a reliance on the past wouldn’t work. It would take a long commitment to ensure the stability of the regime, and even that wouldn’t ensure that other countries would willingly follow suit. No, Iraq was off the table. If the United States were to invade, there would have to be strong evidence that Saddam’s regime was pursuing WMD, actively supporting al-Qaeda, or something even worse. The focus of American foreign policy would remain on combating international terrorism, for now.

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John Farson

Banned
Thirded. No tens of thousands of deaths here. And America's international reputation and prestige are still intact.

I presume Blair and Labour are a shoo-in for re-election, yes?
 
Thirded. No tens of thousands of deaths here. And America's international reputation and prestige are still intact.

I presume Blair and Labour are a shoo-in for re-election, yes?


Yup. Blair's doing quite peachy. I'm referring largely to the excellent "Tony and Al" timeline by "well" for British politics. You'll get details on the election results in the next post or so.
 
This is starting to look like the setup for the larger world threat: North Korea. In OTL, North Korea tests its first nuclear weapon October 9, 2006. The US was never able to respond strongly at the time because the military was overextended. In OTL McCain blamed the Clinton administration for allowing North Korea to run unchecked. From ABC news:
"Having said that, during the Clinton administration years, here we concluded an unenforceable and untransparent agreement, which allowed [North Korea] to keep plutonium rods in a reactor … in order to make them nuclear material," McCain said. "[His negotiations] would put them on the path to develop nuclear weapons. … And we did nothing but more talk."

At a news conference Tuesday, McCain called Clinton's dealings with North Korea a failure.
"I would remind Sen. [Hillary] Clinton and other Democrats critical of the Bush administration's policies that the framework agreement her husband's administration negotiated was a failure," McCain said after a campaign appearance for Republican Senate candidate Mike Bouchard.
"The Koreans received millions and millions in energy assistance. They've diverted millions of dollars of food assistance to their military," he said.

McCain told "Good Morning America" that the United States should take North Korea's threats seriously.
"It gets more and more dangerous as time goes by because they have these short-range missile capabilities," he said.
McCain called the alleged tests North Korea's "chance to be on the world stage and blackmail the West and literally every country in the world into propping up … a failed state."
"And it's exacerbated by the problem that this 'dear leader' is not totally rational," he said.
It is possible that North Korea could attempt to use nuclear missiles, McCain said.
"There is no doubt they're attempting to develop those missiles. Whether they will and when is questionable, but they're certainly making the effort," he said. "They have been able to develop closer-range missiles; some of which they have exported to other countries."
and the best line
Despite the Clinton administration's discussions with North Korea, McCain said that talking didn't always lead to progress.
"We were talking to Adolph Hitler right up until the moment he annexed Czechoslovakia," McCain said. "I think that, unless there is some positive response on the part of the people you're talking to, it is not a very useful exercise."
There were threats of war by North Korea if any further sanctions were instituted. With McCain in charge and looking for a challenge... Korean War II
 
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This is starting to look like the setup for the larger world threat: North Korea. In OTL, North Korea tests its first nuclear weapon October 9, 2006. The US was never able to respond strongly at the time because the military was overextended. There were threats of war by North Korea if any further sanctions were instituted. With McCain in charge and looking for a challenge... Korean War II

More like Korean War, Round Two - it never officially ended, remember? ;)

Marc A
 
This is starting to look like the setup for the larger world threat: North Korea. In OTL, North Korea tests its first nuclear weapon October 9, 2006. The US was never able to respond strongly at the time because the military was overextended. There were threats of war by North Korea if any further sanctions were instituted. With McCain in charge and looking for a challenge... Korean War II

And my Grandpa lives to see the Second Korean War ...

Which actually brings up an interesting personal butterfly. I actually tried out fir the national guard in OTL, but was turned away initially, because I needed to lose some weight (which u actually did over the next year). Come 9/11, I very nearly tried again, but was talked out if it by my Father. I wonder if I made it in in the ALT. If course, by eyes are horrid, and I'm pretty sure that night still have disqualified me (I have my Dad's vision, and the only reason he got in was due to a relaxing if the physical standards in the post-Vietnam army)
 
McCain's already acknowledged the difficulty of meeting campaign pledges. Anything he said about North Korea's likely to fall under that category as well. I don't know what the bigger obstacle would be: China or South Korea itself.
 
By North Koreans? I doubt any CONUS targets are in danger - Taepodongs don't have that kind of range. IIRC they can hit Alaska, at most, but no further.

Marc A

Still, even if it hits Alaska and the missile doesn't detonate, then that still is an act of war. It can't be passed off as a test launch.
 
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