Decembrist victory

What if the Decembrist Revolt of 1823 in St. Petersburg had succeeded in forcing either Consantine I or Nicholas I to accept a constitution or enact a series of vigorous reforms?
 
Well, the Decemberists would need to have a clear idea of what they want first.

What DO they want?
 
It would appear they want to eliminate Nicholas I, and then take control of the apparatus of the Russian state in the name of "Constantine and the Constitution" as the officers had the soldiers shout. The Constitution would presumably dis-empower Constantine and place power in the hands of a committee of the Decembrists, led by the Prince Sergei Petrovich Troubetzkoy as the "dictator"- the title to which the Decembrist plotters elected him.

If the plan to kill Nicholas I had gone through, then I think the plot would have at least had a longer life span.

With Nicholas dead, maybe Troubetzkoy doesn't bolt, and actually shows up to lead the revolt. With Nicholas dead, the plotters seize the Winter Palace, and from there proclaim the new provisional "Constitutional Regency" or whatever. They then proclaim their list of social reforms, included but not limited to the immediate freeing of all serfs. Word leaks out, perhaps sparking peasant rebellions across Russia? Constantine is firmly in Poland and may well refuse to become Czar.

If the Decembrists get the Winter Palace, and get word about the serfs being free out, then they might convince the mostly-peasant army to come over to their side. It also might be hard to put the cat back in the bag if word leaks out. I'm not sure what the situation was in the countryside, but if you have a French Revolution style thing going on, you could see widespread rebellion in the countryside that allows the urban revolutionaries to seize control. If this thing really gets off the ground, are there civilian revolutionaries that can wipe up the masses and push for more revolutionary things? A Republic? General Civil War? Revolution at any rate.
 
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Well, if Russia is undergoing this rather aggressive revolution, it will have a serious effect on politics across the Continent to say the least.

Might Constantine move to make Poland independent of Russia with this revolution breaking out?
 
Might Constantine move to make Poland independent of Russia with this revolution breaking out?
Konstantin was actually a vicious anti-Polish dude as viceroy of the Congress Kingdom. I doubt it very seriously. His main policy object will be intervention in the Greek uprising currently going on to the south - after all, he was named 'Konstantin' because Ekaterina had the object of placing him upon the throne of a resurrected Byzantine state. The OTL Russo-Turkish War of 1828-9 may happen earlier, though with Konstantin's serious military deficiencies I don't know if it will perform as well. War was possible as early as the July 27, 1821 ultimatum that Aleksandr's government issued to the Porte. With the Egyptian intervention still beginning in February 1825 as per OTL, pressure for Russia to intervene on behalf of their co-religionists will be heavy. Likely as not, Canning will still make the effort to keep Konstantin 'grouped', but I doubt that the TTL version of the Petersburg Protocol will be as moderate, with perhaps a larger Greek state (and thus much more unstable) encompassing not only Hellas but parts of Rumeli.
 
If Constantine did make these serious mistakes, what would the international reaction be?
Dunno if they'd be mistakes of themselves. Canning will still like the opportunity that this affords to break up the 'Congress System' insofar as it exists. Too, he will be most interested in retaining the largely philhellenic public opinion in Britain. Metternich will be correspondingly pissed. France is a revisionist power anyway and probably will go along with things. Prussia is too busy fiddling with its Church structure and running around quashing Burschenschaften to have a particular interest in the Eastern Question. Their foreign service is mostly focused on German affairs, especially the preparatory negotiations for the customs union of 1828 that OTL laid the foundation for the Zollverein.
 
This is quite likely; the Decembrists i think were veterans of the Napoleonic Wars, and they themselves held great admiration for the travails of their men. Communication though is going to be a problem; most of the upper class actually spoke French, and although at this point in time more and more are speaking russian in view of 1812, there is still going to be a little language barrier going on.
Yes the plotters of the Decembrist Revolt were basically romanticist Russian nationalists. One of the exiled plotters actually rejected Peter the Great reforms and started wearing a beard and pre-reform clothing. I don't think communication would be a terrible problem- it would appear that the officers were able to successfully speak to their own people.

Konstantin was actually a vicious anti-Polish dude as viceroy of the Congress Kingdom. I doubt it very seriously. His main policy object will be intervention in the Greek uprising currently going on to the south - after all, he was named 'Konstantin' because Ekaterina had the object of placing him upon the throne of a resurrected Byzantine state. More international stuff.
What do you think the more successful Decembrist Revolt would do though?

Constantine is holed up in Poland, but if the Decembrists are in control of St. Petersburg, then I would expect Poland to go into open revolt. So Constantine flees, gets taken prisoner, or gets killed (during the OTL Polish revolt there was a serious attempt to kill him).

Constantine has abdicated, Nicholas I is gone (since I think Nicholas I being killed is the POD needed to get the Decembrists off the ground), which leaves either Nicholas' son Alexander II (who is a child) or the youngest son of Paul I, Grand Duke Michael, aged 27.

With the Poles definitely in revolt and the loyalty of their own peasant army in question (not to mention the capital St. Petersburg under the control of rebels who had murdered the Czar) Czar Michael is not going to thinking about international interventions, he'll be thinking about how to save his throne.
 
What do you think the more successful Decembrist Revolt would do though?

Constantine is holed up in Poland, but if the Decembrists are in control of St. Petersburg, then I would expect Poland to go into open revolt. So Constantine flees, gets taken prisoner, or gets killed (during the OTL Polish revolt there was a serious attempt to kill him).

Constantine has abdicated, Nicholas I is gone (since I think Nicholas I being killed is the POD needed to get the Decembrists off the ground), which leaves either Nicholas' son Alexander II (who is a child) or the youngest son of Paul I, Grand Duke Michael, aged 27.

With the Poles definitely in revolt and the loyalty of their own peasant army in question (not to mention the capital St. Petersburg under the control of rebels who had murdered the Czar) Czar Michael is not going to thinking about international interventions, he'll be thinking about how to save his throne.
Konstantin is in Poland at that juncture? Yes, I suppose that could make things messy if he doesn't attempt to reach Petersburg with all speed. Still, isn't the knyaz Sergei Trubetskoy the interim dictator?
 
Konstantin is in Poland at that juncture? Yes, I suppose that could make things messy if he doesn't attempt to reach Petersburg with all speed. Still, isn't the knyaz Sergei Trubetskoy the interim dictator?

He is, but I think that if this the revolt goes off then the radicals from the Southern Association will quickly ride north. With Nicholas I already murdered, and the freeing of the serfs, I think that the whole thing could rapidly spin out of the control of the moderates like Sergei Trubetskoy. The leader of the Southern Association, Pavel Pestel, was an actual republican, who views are expressed thus:

"The second edition of the Russkaya Pravda manifested further democratization of Pestel’s views. It demanded an immediate emancipation of the Russian serfs with their land, limitations of the right to landownership, creation of public and private land funds, elimination of class privileges, and concession of political rights to males over 20 years of age." Also mentioned is the physical removal of the imperial family. From Wikipedia
.

If radicals gain control, they could start remaking Russian society- starting with the St. Petersburg nobility.

I don't think the Decembrists could win, but I do think that with temporary control of St. Petersburg they will have a much larger effect on history then they did OTL. The radical program they announce, the possiblity of wide-spread social violence, this will force the discourse in Russia to move forward. Furthermore, with the taking of St. Petersburg they have almost assured themselves death without trail when the city is retaken. 1825 will be the "First Russian Revolution" and Pestelism could be the ideology of future Russian revolutionaries.
 
He is, but I think that if this the revolt goes off then the radicals from the Southern Association will quickly ride north. With Nicholas I already murdered, and the freeing of the serfs, I think that the whole thing could rapidly spin out of the control of the moderates like Sergei Trubetskoy. The leader of the Southern Association, Pavel Pestel, was an actual republican, who views are expressed thus:

.

If radicals gain control, they could start remaking Russian society- starting with the St. Petersburg nobility.

I don't think the Decembrists could win, but I do think that with temporary control of St. Petersburg they will have a much larger effect on history then they did OTL. The radical program they announce, the possiblity of wide-spread social violence, this will force the discourse in Russia to move forward. Furthermore, with the taking of St. Petersburg they have almost assured themselves death without trail when the city is retaken. 1825 will be the "First Russian Revolution" and Pestelism could be the ideology of future Russian revolutionaries.


So like the OTL Revolutions of 1848, this revolution is put down. What would the temporary success of the Decembrists do to the Russian political system? If Michael takes the throne, what kind of Tsar will he be, and if not him then who will be the Regent for Alexander II? Will there be reforms to prevent this from happening again and to placate the masses or will there be vicious repression like under Alexander III? Will Russia recover in time to be willing and able to intervene in TTL's version of the 1848 Revolutions? Will the Tsar be willing to?

Not to mention what would Poland be like if it has risen in full-out revolt for independence? I don't imagine Prussia or Austria would take kindly to that...
 
About the loyalty of the Army, I was under the impression the general Russian public loved the Czar but hated the aristocracy. They believed the Czar would help them with their problems if only he knew of them.

In one of the Decembrist threads earlier, someone commented the Army might attack the Decembrists if they murdered the Czar--the beloved king has been murdered by aristocrats!
 
About the loyalty of the Army, I was under the impression the general Russian public loved the Czar but hated the aristocracy. They believed the Czar would help them with their problems if only he knew of them.

In one of the Decembrist threads earlier, someone commented the Army might attack the Decembrists if they murdered the Czar--the beloved king has been murdered by aristocrats!

this itself could spur on a French-style Revolution in my opinion, or at least a wave of violence directed at the aristocracy.
 
So like the OTL Revolutions of 1848, this revolution is put down. What would the temporary success of the Decembrists do to the Russian political system?

I'm not sure what it would do. I think the big question would be whether the rebellion spreads outside St. Petersburg to the countryside. If the serfs have been freed, with the promise of their land, and then are told that they are neither free or landed, that will spark massive rebellions. In OTL there were rebellions in the 1860's once the serfs found out that they were getting personal freedom and little else. In this case, they would be getting what they wanted, and then having it all taken away. I have a feeling that the new Czar may be forced to make permanent concessions to the serfs in order to keep the rebellion within manageable bounds.

If Michael takes the throne, what kind of Tsar will he be, and if not him then who will be the Regent for Alexander II?

I think Michael is probably going to be the next Czar. Alexander, the son of Nicholas, is only 7 years old, and there is the possibility that he is under rebel control after the murder of his father. About Michael's actual political leanings I know absolutely nothing (because wikipedia has nothing on it).

Will Russia recover in time to be willing and able to intervene in TTL's version of the 1848 Revolutions? Will the Tsar be willing to?
I think so. The '48 Revolutions threatened the balance of power in Europe, and whatever the political leanings of the Czar, a revolutionary shift of power cannot be allowed.

Not to mention what would Poland be like if it has risen in full-out revolt for independence? I don't imagine Prussia or Austria would take kindly to that...

It would be crushed. Even if the serfs get some concessions, the Poles are a different matter, and can't possibly get independence or even concessions. The Poles will be made examples of in the aftermath of jarring events in St. Petersburg.
 
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