December 7

Did Japan really have to attack the United States and their interests?

Could Japan have just attacked the Allies in the Pacific and left America alone? Or were they sure the USA would get in on the war and just wanted to be sure they wouldn't be able to be a formidable foe if and when they happens?
 
In theory but too risky

Did Japan really have to attack the United States and their interests?

Could Japan have just attacked the Allies in the Pacific and left America alone? Or were they sure the USA would get in on the war and just wanted to be sure they wouldn't be able to be a formidable foe if and when they happens?
Yes. And NO, even NFW.

It would have been better in most respects better for Japan to avoid attacking the US, obviously. What it wanted was the resources of SE Asia to continue its attempts to gain hegemony in China. BUT, this would leave the USN with bases in the Philippines sitting on the supply lines back to the Home Islands and able to cut them pretty much at will. As you say, the Japanese couldn't be certain enough that the US wouldn't join the war on the side of the European colonial powers. It might not, I'm sure experts on 1940s US politics can give a better answer than me on the probability of it DOWing Japan without Pearl Harbour. What's more relevant is that the Japanese thought the risks of that were too great, and, as you say, decided they needed to weaken the USN to give them time to build an "impregnable" buffer zone around Japan. As well as seize the Philippines of course.

I think it's been discussed before here and my opinion is that of the two BAD options, attacking the US was slightly worse than not attacking it. But I don't think that's the consensus and I dont have a great deal of confidence in my view. It was the case that the Japanese establishment believed itself to be backed into a corner with no viable options other than seizing SE Asia. And their answer to the dilemma differs from mine.
 
Remember that it was the USA that started the trade embargo on Japan and the IJN considered the USN its main opponent during the 20 and 30s.
If Japan doesn't attack the US what's to stop the Philippine islands being built up over 2 years till by 1943 it is now impregnable and home to a USN fleet larger than the IJN courtesy of the two navy act, then the US just tells Japan to give back its gains or else ?

At that's without the US just start sending LL to everybody who is fighting the Japanese, GB and China etc....

Ninjed above
 
Japan might have decided to seek Peace with China, and tried to seek the 'Co Prosperity sphere' by other means (but it was run by militarist fanatics)
 
they could have, after June 1941, done something (almost) ASB and struck further deal with USSR.

gotten as much oil as they needed and plausibly Sakhalin Island as well.

more importantly the Soviets had control of large part of China (Sinkiang) and influence on both sides of KMT/Communist.
 
Not really. Remember, the U.S. forces in the Philippines were too well positioned to cut off any Japanese advances southwards so as long as the U.S. was there they represented a complete existential threat to Japanese ambitions to obtain the resources they needed.
 
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