December 7, 1941, a date that was, well, kind of boring...

[robertp6165]

What if, on November 5, 1941, Japanese Emperor Hirohito rejected the plan for an attack on Pearl Harbor which had been presented to him by Fleet Admiral Nagano on November 3? Instead, Hirohito...banking on isolationist sentiment in the United States to prevent any effective intervention by the U.S. Pacific Fleet or U.S. forces in the Philippines...orders that no attacks are to be made against the United States, but that planned operations against southeast Asia and the Dutch East Indies are to proceed as scheduled.

So, December 7, 1941, passes like any other day in the United States. On December 13, the Japanese invasion fleet leaves Cam Ranh Bay in French Indo-China, bound for Borneo. They land on December 15.

What happens from here? Does the United States declare war on Japan, or does F.D.R. find himself prevented from doing so by isolationists? If the U.S. doesn't get involved in the war now, does it get involved later, and if so, when and how? If the U.S. stays out of the war completely, except for perhaps acting as a supplier to the allies, how does that affect allied chances of victory?

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

What if, on November 5, 1941, Japanese Emperor Hirohito rejected the plan for an attack on Pearl Harbor which had been presented to him by Fleet Admiral Nagano on November 3? Instead, Hirohito...banking on isolationist sentiment in the United States to prevent any effective intervention by the U.S. Pacific Fleet or U.S. forces in the Philippines...orders that no attacks are to be made against the United States, but that planned operations against southeast Asia and the Dutch East Indies are to proceed as scheduled.

So, December 7, 1941, passes like any other day in the United States. On December 13, the Japanese invasion fleet leaves Cam Ranh Bay in French Indo-China, bound for Borneo. They land on December 15.

What happens from here? Does the United States declare war on Japan, or does F.D.R. find himself prevented from doing so by isolationists? If the U.S. doesn't get involved in the war now, does it get involved later, and if so, when and how? If the U.S. stays out of the war completely, except for perhaps acting as a supplier to the allies, how does that affect allied chances of victory?

I See it as Leading to a State of War Between The Respective Fleets in ALL But Name, Much as The Situation then in The Atlantic towards The German U-Boats ...

However in The Pacific, There's a Lil' Twist ...

The Philippines Sit Right Astride Japan's Most Important Supply Line!

 

[The Mists Of Time]

Japan attacked several places in The Pacific on December 7 and 8, 1941. Several of them such as The Phillippines were US possessions. So this would probably have still pushed The USA into WWII.

WWII both in Europe and in The Pacific was such that I don't really believe The USA could have stayed out of it even without Pearl Harbor. Eventually something was going to force America to enter the war, and it would not have been much longer than in OTL. America's entry into the war was inevitable.

 

[adam888]

The Japanese emperor never had the power to reject any plans
by the military. I wonder though what if Hirohito offered to
meet with Roosevelt to defuse the sentiments for war so that
it would have been possible for Japan to not start a war that
leaders like Yammamoto knew they could not win.

 

[Derek Jackson]

The thing to remember is that Japan would either have to get US sanctions stopped - probably by withdrawing from China, find some other source of raw materials or collapse.

An option might have been to go for Indonesia and ignore the US. It would not be guaranteed that the US and UK would ignore that but America especially would not be as united as it was after December 7th,

 

[torque7844]

The thing to remember is that Japan would either have to get US sanctions stopped - probably by withdrawing from China, find some other source of raw materials or collapse.

An option might have been to go for Indonesia and ignore the US. It would not be guaranteed that the US and UK would ignore that but America especially would not be as united as it was after December 7th,

The Aussies certainly wouldn't have been real happy about Japan pushing into Indonesia.

I'm inclined to agree that, by not attacking the US, Japan maybe delays American entry into the war but doesn't halt it completely.

 

[robertp6165]

Japan attacked several places in The Pacific on December 7 and 8, 1941. Several of them such as The Phillippines were US possessions. So this would probably have still pushed The USA into WWII.

The POD is that the Emperor Hirohito orders NO ATTACKS ON THE UNITED STATES, at all. Not just no Pearl Harbor attack.

WWII both in Europe and in The Pacific was such that I don't really believe The USA could have stayed out of it even without Pearl Harbor. Eventually something was going to force America to enter the war, and it would not have been much longer than in OTL. America's entry into the war was inevitable.

I think you underestimate the strength of the isolationist movement in the U.S. at the time.

 

[robertp6165]

I See it as Leading to a State of War Between The Respective Fleets in ALL But Name, Much as The Situation then in The Atlantic towards The German U-Boats ...

However in The Pacific, There's a Lil' Twist ...

The Philippines Sit Right Astride Japan's Most Important Supply Line!

But again, what exactly could the U.S. do without declaring war? They can't actively attack Japanese convoys. They can't mine the waters in the shipping lanes. Both of these are acts of war. Unlike the U-Boat situation, the U.S. can't argue that they are protecting American shipping when the Japanese aren't interfereing with American shipping.

 

[Advernt]

Would have Congress ever voted for war short of an attack on American soil at that time?

 

[robertp6165]

The Japanese emperor never had the power to reject any plans by the military.

That's not actually true. Military plans were submitted to the Emperor for his approval or rejection, and the Emperor did have veto power over all decisions made by the military. Hirohito rarely exercised those powers, because, in general, he agreed with what the military was doing. But there were a number of cases where, in fact, Hirohito did over-ride the decisions made by the military high command...one example was the selection of Hideki Tojo as Prime Minister...the military unimously supported a different candidate. The most famous one, of course, was the decision to surrender in 1945.

The idea that Hirohito had no power to resist or change the aggressive plans of his military high command is Japanese propaganda intended to excuse Hirohito of responsibility for Japanese Imperialism and aggression during World War II.

 

[robertp6165]

The thing to remember is that Japan would either have to get US sanctions stopped - probably by withdrawing from China, find some other source of raw materials or collapse.

An option might have been to go for Indonesia and ignore the US.

Which is, indeed, the stated POD for this thread.

It would not be guaranteed that the US and UK would ignore that but America especially would not be as united as it was after December 7th,

I think the UK would end up at war with Japan, because Japan is definitely not going to leave Burma, Singapore and Hong Kong alone. Of course, whether they could do any more to stop the Japanese steamroller than they did in OTL is questionable. The U.S. reaction, I think, is a much more iffy thing. I agree they would not be united, and the isolationists would cause a lot of problems if FDR tries to force the country into the war before people are ready for that.

 

[robertp6165]

Would have Congress ever voted for war short of an attack on American soil at that time?

That, indeed, is the prime question. I very much doubt that it would.

 

[Sargon]

Although the Philippines would lie across Japanese supply routes, it's a risk worth taking. It's easy for us to see it in hindsight of course, but without the sheer anger that Pearl Harbor caused, then if the US does join the war at a later date there is more likelihood of a negotiated settlement with the Japanese if the war sees stunning Japanese victories (American BB fleet perhaps sortieing to the Philippines in the event of a declaration war as per War Plan Orange, and the Japanese finding and intercepting and perhaps inflicting heavy damage/losses to it as per their pre-Pearl Harbor plans).

The US would of course win the war in the long term, but if things bog down into the island fighting with the Japanese being just as stubborn as they were OTL and fighting to the last man, then without the indignation and anger that Pearl caused, it could be difficult for the US government to continue the war if the public saw this as unacceptable. Especially if it is sold by the opposition as the US being involved in a war to save the European powers' colonial holdings.


Sargon

New Story - Science Fiction Comes Alive in East Asia's Spratly Islands!: Be Careful What You Wish For...

 

[robertp6165]

Although the Philippines would lie across Japanese supply routes, it's a risk worth taking. It's easy for us to see it in hindsight of course, but without the sheer anger that Pearl Harbor caused, then if the US does join the war at a later date there is more likelihood of a negotiated settlement with the Japanese if the war sees stunning Japanese victories (American BB fleet perhaps sortieing to the Philippines in the event of a declaration war as per War Plan Orange, and the Japanese finding and intercepting and perhaps inflicting heavy damage/losses to it as per their pre-Pearl Harbor plans).

The US would of course win the war in the long term, but if things bog down into the island fighting with the Japanese being just as stubborn as they were OTL and fighting to the last man, then without the indignation and anger that Pearl caused, it could be difficult for the US government to continue the war if the public saw this as unacceptable. Especially if it is sold by the opposition as the US being involved in a war to save the European powers' colonial holdings.


Sargon

Agreed. The sea battle you mention where the U.S. Pacific fleet sorties out to the Philippines and is intercepted by the Japanese sounds interesting.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

But again, what exactly could the U.S. do without declaring war? They can't actively attack Japanese convoys. They can't mine the waters in the shipping lanes. Both of these are acts of war. Unlike the U-Boat situation, the U.S. can't argue that they are protecting American shipping when the Japanese aren't interfereing with American shipping.

Agreed. The sea battle you mention where the U.S. Pacific fleet sorties out to the Philippines and is intercepted by the Japanese sounds interesting.

With Japanese Fleets Depending on Shipping Going through Philippine Waters, I See The U.S. Declaring a Maritime Exclusion Zone Around The Islands ...

As at The Time The Legality of This Proclamation Would Be Suspect, The USN Would Have to Sortie Out to Enforce it ...

As you have Noted, The Battle This Would Necessarily Lead to Would Be MESSY as Anything, And is Probably Worthy of a Timeline!

 

[merlin]

At first sight - this seems a logical course of action for Japan, faced with the strangulation effect of the US fuel sanctions.
The US, especially since the USN Panay incident, wasn't happy with two of Japan's recent decisions - the signing of the Axis pact, and the Occupation of French Indo-China. The implication of Indo-China was a move 'South'.
If Japan couldn't get the oil from the US, it had to come from somewhere else - the alternative of withdrawing from China (or at least reducing its forces there) wasn't an option. If a Government had proposed it - it would not last long.
As I wrote earlier it was the logical option - seize the NEI, perhaps also British Empire interests - why should US congressmen save the empires of failed European countries - with American lives!?

Trouble was, the IJN didn't fear the US Navy. They sank the Russian Pacific Fleet, the Russians sent another (the Baltic Fleet) so they sank that one too. Why, they thought, should the Americans be any different to the Russians. Besides, what did they do in retaliation to the USN Panay incident - nothing - just diplomatic hot air.
Japan did not want to obliterate the US in any way, it wanted the US to recognise their 'right' to an 'empire' in the Western Pacific & China. It assumed that if war got to at an unacceptable level for the US it would be prepared to 'talk'.
Unfortunately (for Japan) that wasn't the way that the US conducts war!!

 

[Electric Monk]

We need a further back POD, one where Japan recognizes how limited their options are.

For instance trading China to get the US to lift sanctions is a sound strategic move. China cost the Japanese far more than they ever got out of it.

So… is there any way for Japan to swing around? Realize that Imperial expansion has to be worth it to work, ditch China, avoid attacking the USA, and seize all the good non-US bits of the Pacific Rim?

 

[M79]

You could have the Japanese get synthetic oil technology in the early 30s and try to stave off the need for US oil...

 

[wkwillis]

Oil Crisis in Japan

Japan didn't go to war with us until we stopped supplying them with oil in 1941. If they had discovered the Daquing oil field in Manchuria, they wouldn't have needed either our oil or our tankers.

 

[Admiral Matt]

But if they had found an alternate source of oil, it is doubtful that they would have attacked the British-Dutch colonies in the first place. Certainly it would have at least been delayed until the situation in China was more resolved.

I've been thinking about this POD quite a bit. I suspect that initially you would see a much more successful Japanese effort on India and Australia. Not to say either would necessarily fall - they are big places - but I could see the Japanese getting well into Bengal and occupying the Northwest coast of Australia. Perhaps more.

The trouble is, the Japanese severely overstretched themselves even in OTL. Without the United States at their backs, they'll probably just push and push and push until they collapse. A troubling tendency when the US probably enters the war later on! By the same token, the war in Europe is still likely to end in destruction of the Axis. Heaven help the Japanese if they're pushing on Delhi then.