December 1901: An alternative path in history after the death of David Lloyd George

On 18 December 1901, Lloyd George, an up-and-coming Liberal member of Parliament, tried to speak at an anti Boer War meeting in Birmingham Town Hall. A pro-war demonstration of 7,000 people soon degenerated into a riot. In a pitched battle one policeman and one rioter were killed, at least 40 injured and the Town Hall wrecked. In OTL Lloyd George escaped disguised as a policeman. The POD for this TL is that somehow he is fatally injured. In it I want to explore the consequences of the removal of probably the second most important figure in British politics in the 20th century after Winston Churchill.

The news of Lloyd George's death was greeted with shock and indignation. Some Liberals blamed Joseph Chamberlain, the Colonial Secretary and uncrowned king of Birmingham as being indirectly responsible for his death. But he vehemently rejected any measure of responsibility. Arthur Balfour, the Conservative Prime Minister, and Chamberlain said they deeply rejected this tragic death. Charles Ritchie, the Home Secretary, appointed a public enquiry which some months later came to the conclusion that Lloyd George's death was a tragic accident for which no one could be held responsible.
 
The by-election in the Caernarvon District of Boroughs (1) caused by the death of Lloyd George, was held on 8 February 1902. The local Liberals wanted a Welshman as their candidate, and they chose Allen Clement Edwards.

Edwards won the by-election in a straight fight with the Conservative candidate by 58.5% to 41.5%. This was a swing of 5.2% from Conservative to Liberal.

As in OTL Arthur Balfour resigned as Prime Minister on 4 December 1905 and Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, the leader of the Liberal Party, became Prime Minister the next day. His government was the same as in OTL except as follows:

Cabinet
--------
Reginald McKenna: President of the Board of Trade

Outside the cabinet
------------------
Walter Runciman: Financial Secretary to the Treasury
Thomas Macnamara: Parliamentary Secretary to the Board of Education
Thomas Lough: Partliamentary Secretary to the Local Government Board.

Leading ministers were as follows:

Campbell-Bannerman: Prime Minister
Herbert Henry Asquith: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Sir Edward Grey: Foreign Secretary
Herbert Gladstone: Home Secretary
Richard Haldane: War Secretary.

Winston Churchill was appointed Under-Secretary of State for the Colonies.

(1) Before 1950 towns in Scotland and Wales were grouped together to form districts of boroughs for parliamentary elections.
 
pipisme

Going to be a big impact with the most important radical reformer of the period, at the time, removed from play. Hopefully others will take up the slack and possibly even more successfully if less controversial. Also would be some big impacts if WWI comes along as OTL.

Steve
 
Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman resigned as Prime Minister because of ill-health on 5 April 1908 and Herbert Henry Asquith, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, became Prime Minister.

Here is Asquith's cabinet where it diifers from OTL:

Chancellor of the Exchequer: Reginald McKenna

First Lord of the Admiralty: Winston Churchill

President of the Board of Education: Herbert Samuel

Postmaster-General: Walter Runciman

President of the Board of Trade: Sydney Buxton.

Ouside the cabinet, Charles Masterman was Under-Secretary of State at the Home Office.
 
Before Winston Churchill was appointed First Lord of the Admiralty in April 1908 he had not been a supporter of the Admiralty line of building more warships than agreed to by the government. However as First Lord he went native and in early February 1909 circulated a printed Cabinet paper in which he warned about the danger of the German threat and argued for the Admiralty programme of six capital ships for the financial year 1909-1910.

In this he was strongly resisted by a group of four in the Cabinet headed by Reginald McKenna, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who thought four ships were enough.
 
Churchill was backed in cabinet by most of his colleagues including Sir Edward Grey (Foreign Secretary), Lord Crewe (Colonial Secretary), Sydney Buxton (president of the Board of Trade), and Walter Runciman (Postmaster-General).

When the Cabinet on 24 February 1909 it decided to lay down six capital ships in the financial year 1909-1910. McKenna, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, decided against resignation after some consideration because to do so wouldf wreck his political career and he did not feel strongly enough about the issue to resign.

McKenna introduced his budget to the House of Commons on 29 April. It raised income tax from 1 shilling to 1 shilling and three pence in the pound, increased surtax on annual incomes above £5,000, and estate duty. There were also increases in taxes on alcoholoc liquor, tobacco and petrol. (1)

Though it vigorously condemned by the Tories as a tax raising budget, they did not object to it in principle. The Finance Act 1909, which incorporated the budget provisions, passed through the House of Commons and the House of Lords and became law in late July 1909.

(1) Unlike in OTL there were no taxes on land values so it was not rejected by the House of Lords.
 
pipisme

That's going to make for some changes. A still unreformed House of Lords will make other changes more difficult. However it will mean that the government isn't bogged down in a ruinous tussel over reform of the Lords so could leave the Liberal party in a stronger position to meet probably coming changes.

Will there still be a Home Rule bill? That will also cause problems for both sides. However might stand a chance of getting through although unless there's compromise [I know, we're talking about Ireland her:(] that could mean civil war.

Steve

Churchill was backed in cabinet by most of his colleagues including Sir Edward Grey (Foreign Secretary), Lord Crewe (Colonial Secretary), Sydney Buxton (president of the Board of Trade), and Walter Runciman (Postmaster-General).

When the Cabinet on 24 February 1909 it decided to lay down six capital ships in the financial year 1909-1910. McKenna, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, decided against resignation after some consideration because to do so wouldf wreck his political career and he did not feel strongly enough about the issue to resign.

McKenna introduced his budget to the House of Commons on 29 April. It raised income tax from 1 shilling to 1 shilling and three pence in the pound, increased surtax on annual incomes above £5,000, and estate duty. There were also increases in taxes on alcoholoc liquor, tobacco and petrol. (1)

Though it vigorously condemned by the Tories as a tax raising budget, they did not object to it in principle. The Finance Act 1909, which incorporated the budget provisions, passed through the House of Commons and the House of Lords and became law in late July 1909.

(1) Unlike in OTL there were no taxes on land values so it was not rejected by the House of Lords.
 
Originally posted by stevep
Will there still be a Home Rule bill?
In OTL Asquith introduced a Home Rule bill in 1912 because the Irish Nationalists held the balance of power after the general election of December 1910. In this TL because the House of Lords didn't reject the 1909 Finance Bill there won't be a general election in 1910.

Theoretically the next general election need not be held until February 1913. But based on precedent it will be sometime in 1911 or 1912. A Home Rule bill would depend on the result of that election, and any promises made by Asquith before it.
 
In February 1910 Herbert Gladstone, the Home Secretary, was made a viscount and appointed Governor-General of South Africa. He was an opponent of Women's suffrage and responsible for the introduction of the forcible feeding of suffragette hunger strikers, so the identity of the new Home Secretary was of great importance to supporters of women's suffrage

In the ensuing cabinet reshuffle Herbert Samuel, the President of the Board of Education became Home Secretary; and Charles Masterman joined the cabinet as President of the Board of Education. Samuel was an opponent of women's suffrage, while Masterman was a supporter.
 
The Liberals lost seats to the Tories and Labour in by-elections in 1909: Glasgow Central, Stratford-on-Avon, and Bermondsey to the Tories; Sheffield Attercliffe and Mid-Derbyshire to Labour. These changes were as in OTL.

At a by-election on 30 April 1910, the Liberal seat of Crewe was lost to the Conservatives because of Labour intervention.
 
Although Charles Masterman was officially President of the Board of Education, he used his cabinet post to campaign for social reform beyond his departmental responsibilities. He was the unofficial leader of the radical wing of the Liberal Party.

At a meeting of the cabinet in late September 1910, Masterman proposed the introduction of a system of National Insurance for working people against ill-health. In return for weekly contributions contributions by workers, employers and the state, an insured worker would receive sick pay and be entitled to free medical treatment from doctors who had enrolled on insurance panels.

Masterman argued that his scheme would have the following advantages (not in order of importance):

It would be popular among working class voters. Benefits paid for out of insurance were regarded as having been earned by payment of contributions.

It was an attractive compromise between the Majority and Minority Reports of the Poor Law Commission. (1)

It would head of socialism by social reform.

If the Conservative dominated House of Lords rejected a Health Insurance Bill, the government could go to the country on a popular platform of Peers versus the People.

Masterman was enthusiastically supported by John Burns, the President of the Local Government Board and by Winston Churchill. Other ministers in favour were Sydney Buxton, Sir Edward Grey, Richard Haldane and Herbert Samuel. Reginald McKenna, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, was hostile to the scheme being a strong believer in the classical liberal values of individualism and laissez faire . However he did not take his opposition to the point of resignation. With little enthusiasm Asquith supported the majority opinion in his cabinet which authorised the drafting of appropriate legislation.

(1) The two reports of the Royal Commission on the Poor Laws were published in 1909 as in OTL. The Majority Report wanted to make the Poor Law into an all-purpose relief organisation. The Minority Report argued for the complete destruction of the Poor Law. Its ideological basis was Fabian socialism. On insurance, the Majority Report was equivocal and the Minority Report was hostile.
 
The National Insurance Bill was published in mid November 1910. It was divided into two parts. Part 1 was the health insurance scheme. Part 2 was a selective unemployment insurance scheme.

Part 1 proposed that wage-earners who did not pay income tax (that is earned not more than £160 a year) would pay a weekly contribution of fourpance, their employers threepence and the state would contribute twopence into an accumulating fund to finance benefits. An insured worker would receive ten shillings a week in sick pay, seven shillings and sixpence in the case of women, and free medical treatment from a doctor on a panel organised by local Insurance Commissions. Doctors would be paid a capitation fee dependent on the number of panel patients they had. The scheme would administered by 'approved societies' which wage-earners would join at their choice. Any organisation, trade union, insurance company or Friendly Society which had been insuring people previously could become an 'approved society'. The scheme would be voluntary for individual wage-earners, but employers would be required to contribute in respect of their employees who have joined the scheme. (1)

Part 2 provided insurance against unemployment for workmen in the buiilding and enginnering trades, in which the demand for labour fluctuated greatly.

(1) Thiese provisions were the same as in the National Insurance Act 1911 in OTL except that membership of the scheme was voluntary, not compulsory for employees.
 
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pipisme

Is the weakening of the bill due to a weaker radical element in the Liberal party without LG?

I presume there's a tax missing after the income on the 1st line of paragraph 2.

Steve

The National Insurance Bill was published in mid November 1910. It was divided into two parts. Part 1 was the health insurance scheme. Part 2 was a selective unemployment insurance scheme.

Part 1 proposed that wage-earners who did not pay income (that is earned not more than £160 a year) would pay a weekly contribution of fourpance, their employers threepence and the state would contribute twopence into an accumulating fund to finance benefits. An insured worker would receive ten shillings a week in sick pay, seven shillings and sixpence in the case of women, and free medical treatment from a doctor on a panel organised by local Insurance Commissions. Doctors would be paid a capitation fee dependent on the number of panel patients they had. The scheme would administered by 'approved societies' which wage-earners would join at their choice. Any organisation, trade union, insurance company or Friendly Society which had been insuring people previously could become an 'approved society'. The scheme would be voluntary for individual wage-earners, but employers would be required to contribute in respect of their employees who have joined the scheme. (1)

Part 2 provided insurance against unemployment for workmen in the buiilding and enginnering trades, in which the demand for labour fluctuated greatly.

(1) Thiese provisions were the same as in the National Insurance Act 1911 in OTL except that membership of the scheme was voluntary, not compulsory for employees.
 
Originally posted by stevep

Is the weakening of the bill due to a weaker radical element in the Liberal party without LG?

To some extent, but mainly because Reginald McKenna, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, was opposed to compulsory insurance contributions by employees.

I presume there's a tax missing after the income on the 1st line of paragraph 2.

There is, and I have edited my previous message appropriately.

The second reading of the National Insurance Bill was put forward until the new session of Parliament which began on 31 January 1911. The second reading debate in the House of Commons took place on 8 February.

A few days previously on 3 February, Asquith had made Masterman President of the Local Government Board with responsibility for the bill. McKenna felt slighted by this as he believed that he should be the responsible minister. In OTL Lloyd George was the responsible minister on the National Insurance Bill. So McKenna resigned from the government and the House of Commons to become Permanent Secretary to the Treasury (the civil servant who is the official head of that department.

This necessitated the following changes to the cabinet: Richard Haldane, the Secretary of State for War became Chancellor of the Exchequer; John Burns moved from President of the Local Government Board to President of the Board of Trade; Sydney Buxton moved from President of the Board of Trade to Secretary of State for the Colonies; Lewis Harcourt moved from Colonial Secretary to Secretary of State for India; the Earl of Crewe who was also Lord Privy Seal relinquished the India Office portfollio. Walter Runciman moved from Postmaster-General to President of the Board of Education. Charles Hobhouse and John Seely joined the cabinet as Postmaster-General and War Secretary respectively.
 
In the Committee Stage of the National Insurance Bill an amendment was moved by a backbench Liberal MP on the left of the party to make employees contributions compulsory, instead of voluntary. This was opposed by the government, but supported by many Liberal backbenchers. The Conservatives were also opposed, as were the Irish Nationalists. Labour MPs were divided, with a large minority against the amendment. It was defeated by a large majority. The Conservatives, the majority of Liberals and Labour, and the Irish Nationalists voted against.

The Bill passed through all its stages in the House of Commons by the end of April 1911, after bitter opposition from the Conservatives. It then went to the Conservative-dominated House of Lords, for the second reading debate on 10 May. It received its second reading unopposed, but the Tories said they would drastically amend it in committee.
 
On 25 May 1911, the Marquess of Lansdowne, the leader of the Conservative Party in the House of Lords, moved an amendment to the National Insurance Bill to make employer contributions voluntary, instead of compulsory. It was passed by a vote of 326 to 62. Another Lords amendment to abolish the panels of doctors which would provide free medical treatment to insured workers was passed by a similar majority on 31 May.

On 9 June the cabinet decided that when the Bill returned to the Commons, the government would ask members to remove the Lords' amendments.

After passing through all its stages in the Lords, the Bill returned to the Commons on 13 June. The Lords' amendments were debated on 14 and 15 June. Charles Masterman, the President of the Local Government Board, denounced them as wrecking amendment and urged the Commons to remove them. They were removed from the Bill by substantial majorities and the Bill was returned to its original provisions.

The Bill now returned to the Lords where it was debated on 22 and 23 June. The Peers voted to reinstate their amendments and the Bill passed through all its stages in the Lords by 29 June. The cabinet now had to decide whether to accept the Lords' amendments or ask the House of Commons to remove them.
 
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