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Imagine that Heraclius decides not to resume war with the Persians after his defeat.
In OTL he resumes the war in 622 and defeats the Persians and recaptures Jerusalem. Unfortunately this was just before the Muslim Arabs were able to emerge and defeat the two weakened empires.
ATL: Instead after 616 he pays some tribute to the Persians and stays in Constaninople and iscntent to live out his days consolidating the western portion of his Empire. Maybe even governing from Carthage (that seemed to be his intention if Constaniople fell).
This leaves the Persians much stronger and probably able to contain the Arabs.
This would probably leave the 'Holy Land' under Persian Zoroastrian rule for centuries.
What are the chances of a western crusade against the Zoroastrians in later centuries? Would the more militant Zorastrianism of the later Sassanids take root in the Middle East? Would we today be talking about Zoroastrian fundamentalists instead of Muslims?
Could a new Christian/Zoroastrian civilization emerge that would ultimately achieve more than the Arab civilization did?