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In August 1864 Radicals Associated with the Chosu domain sought to kidnap/protect the emperor in Kyoto, setting fire to much of the city in the process. What would be the reprecussions if the conflagration spun out of the control, killing the emperor and his (only) heir, OTLs future Meiji?

You can assume that the radicals will blame the Bakfu for killing him, and that the Bakfu blame the Chosu radicals- that's more or less what happened in 1867. But TTL the heir to the throne is gone as well (of course, eliminating Komei and placing Meiji under Tokugawa "protection" for his own safety is also an interesting alternative, but not the one I am contemplating).

Probable short term consequences:
a. The first Chosu expedition does not back down. It may be defeated or suffer from defections but any legitimacy of rule by the Tokugawa requires they exterminate Chosu, compromise is not an option.
b. Given the abyysmal performance of the Tokugawa in the second Chosu expedition winning outright may not be possible - but the cracks in the Bakfu system, and the outright defection of the Satsuma ware not as advanced. So defeat may give the Tokugawa a bit more of a breathing space to modernize and prepare themselves for the onslaught of the outer lords.
c. Without the loss of legitimacy and resignation of the Togugawa following OTL's imperial support of the rebel outer lords, the Tokugawa may succesfully halt the rebel advance in the alternate boshin war long enough to arrive at a truce - or for EUropean powers to take sides and force a settelement.
d. Divided Japan? Ongoing Feaudalism/warlordism?
e. Do the Japanese imperial dynastic rules allow for succession by a collateral line? If so, who is the closest heir? Can the Tokugawa produce a credible one?

Thoughts?
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