De Gaulle dies before the Algerian War. What happens to France?

France was in a really bad political situation during the Algerian War. If De Gaulle had died before the war, what would happen to France? Would it have collapsed or would it have turned into a military dictatorship? What would the USA do? Also, from what I've read, France did not lose the Algerian War militarily, it won militarily, the FLN was largely destroyed, but the brutal tactics, that, it employed to achieve that alienated both the French, the Algerians and the international community. Of couse, a militarily dictatorship wouldn't have cared about that.
 
Yes, David Galula's work on the Pacification of Algeria more or less ends in 1958 since he considered the war "won" in a military sense by that time. However, he was not blind to the political nature of revolutionary warfare and he stressed the importance of building an alternative national narrative to counter that of the FLN. Should the 4th Republic fall to a military coup, I am unsure if the generals would continue the status quo in Algeria. As the people who fought the war on the frontlines, I would like to think that certain individuals within the military establishment, hopefully prominent and influential individuals, would understand the fundamental need for some kind of devolution of power. Perhaps the military government might force through a compulsory French Union, instead of the former colonies being given a choice.

Within France's wider relationship with NATO, I'm not sure how it would play out. Would the generals be more conciliatory with the Anglo Americans while still maintaining an independent nuclear deterrent? Would the Anglo Americans welcome a conservative government which promised more stability than the 4th Republic?

Regardless, I doubt France would have simply collapsed. Galula states in the same book that despite the chaos of the 4th Republic, day to day life functioned pretty well due to a stable bureaucracy and "the richness of the land". I'm not sure if there would have been a strong enough reaction by the left wing and trade unions etc. against a military coup to result in widespread civil unrest.
 
Would there have been a coup attempt at all without the unifying figure of de Gaulle for the generals to look forward to, someone they could realistically expect to lead the country? It might have taken a pretty different shape, happening later or not at all. Though, without the Fifth Republic’s Constitution, France would look very, very different now, and given the importance it had during the Cold War as a ‘Third Force’ of sorts, it could have led to some huge butterflies.
 
I often wonder how bad could a french "junta" be. And whether it would be as short lived as the greek portuguese and spanish dictatorships that all collapsed peacefully in 73-76. Even in a short timespan it could do a lot of damage. The french left fueled by Moscow certainly won't seat on its hands doing nothing. It could become ugly very fast (hint, metro charonne OTL). Same for human right abuses, what happened in Algeria could easily extends to the Metropole, to muslims, left activists, and others.

As for the nuclear weaponry - not much before 1964 (first Mirage IV squadrons) not very useful in Algeria and of course the real risk of becoming a pariah or... a vitrified parking lot. Hence the french military would not use them.
 
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I would like to think that certain individuals within the military establishment, hopefully prominent and influential individuals, would understand the fundamental need for some kind of devolution of power.
Amount of devolution needed to keep Algeria would make it an independent state in all but name.

I am unsure if the generals would continue the status quo in Algeria. As the people who fought the war on the frontlines,
The incentive to try find a political solution stops once the fighting does, and not like much be done besides the status quo as Algeria to simply too big for France to absorb.
 
Amount of devolution needed to keep Algeria would make it an independent state in all but name.

I'm inclined to agree. The French were so good at suppressing moderate resistance to their rule that only the most extreme proponents of independence remained. The same thing happened in Vietnam where the French suppressed the VNQDD (Vietnamese Kuomintang) and other pro-independence movements to the point that they ceased to exist and the only opposition was the Vietminh. Maybe with a far enough POD, the French could support a more moderate party which was amenable to autonomy within the French Union but seeing as how even the British couldn't manage that with any of their former (non-white) colonies IRL, it's hard to see the French being able to pull that off.
 

longsword14

Banned
and other pro-independence movements to the point that they ceased to exist and the only opposition was the Vietminh
Not quite. It was not the VM but Diem who expelled the French. And the VM mayhave started as a broad coalition but it became dominated by the communist faction.
 
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