DDR Defection

I've been thinking of the plausibility and outcomes of this.

Such as in the late 80s East Germany, after several months to a year plan how to rebel against the Warsaw Pact. They watch the bases and Soviet troop movements that are stationed in East Germany. I understand that the Soviets may very well outnumber the East German army, even if they were to mobilize 100%.

However, if they knew when and where Soviet soldiers trained year round, where their leadership meet, etc. Could they mount a surprise attack, despite having Soviet intelligence watching their every move. Such as mobilizing the Army under the guise of a training exercise.

Would they be able to have enough force to defeat the soviet troops in country under the circumstances of surprise attack and both terrorist/ guerilla strikes, pre placed artillery and air strike locations and as well as shut down the power to their bases?

I understand that regardless of the outcome, the regular Soviet army and other Warsaw Pact Forces would get organized and stomp the hell out of East Germany within the following days.
 
I don't even understand the post. Who is "they" who are planning this massive attack on Soviet troops? Do you think the Nationale Volksarmee was commanded by anti-Communists?!
 
With the OTL leadership it would need an ASB level intervention for them to change.
The USSR was terrified that a strong Germany, even a Communist one, would March east again. Because of that, the first sign of independence of thought and the Soviets would stamp on it, hard.

I think you'd need a less hardliners USSR and a Germany that had it's own episode of unrest in the 60's which is stamped on. With that then come the 90's you could potentially have a situation where a Nationalist government decides to break with the Warsaw Pact.
 
Slight problem is that the East Germans spied on each-other wholesale. Parents on children, children on parents, neighbours on neighbours, workers on each-other. Even the *official* spies spied on each other...

And, IIRC, there were enough 'agent provocateurs' about to entrap any-one with the slightest hesitancy about the overwhelming authority of the state...

At least the Norks get stuff ballooned in !!
 

cgomes

Banned
Slight problem is that the East Germans spied on each-other wholesale. Parents on children, children on parents, neighbours on neighbours, workers on each-other. Even the *official* spies spied on each other...

And, IIRC, there were enough 'agent provocateurs' about to entrap any-one with the slightest hesitancy about the overwhelming authority of the state...

At least the Norks get stuff ballooned in !!
Exactly, the Stasi wouldn't let such a large scale thing roll, they had near orwellian levels of surveillance.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Twilight 2000 has this as its POD. Its a 90's role-playing game set in 2000 I believe with a 1996 Chinese-Soviet war, 1997 NATO-soviet war and then a general nuclear exchange with the world in 2000 being the playground. I've read side information to do with armies, orbats and strategic thinking. Yet, the POD in that is an East German defection.
Any defection would be damn impossible unless the Soviets were very distracted elsewhere and the East Germans involved kept it all tight, neat and confusing: get those taking part to not actually understand what they were doing until afterwards.
 
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