DBWI: Yugoslav King Alexander assassinated in Marseilles?

On October 9, 1934 King Alexander I of Yugoslavia was in a State Visit to the Third French Republic, he was almost killed by Vlado Chernozemski, who shot at him, missed, and was beaten to death by the crowd and guards.

How would European History unfold from then, would Regent Paul be as much of a hardliner against the Ustaše, and go to war with the Nazi's, or would Paul surrender and not die during the Guerilla War like he and Alex I did in '43?
 
Well, Paul was pretty sympathetic to the Croats as far as I know. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he would have sought rapprochement with the Ustase and perhaps even tried to stay on decent terms with Nazi Germany... though I doubt he'd have gone for an alliance, so it's likely Yugoslavia would have been crushed anyway. Maybe solving the Serb-Croat problem could have prevented the post-war splintering of the restored Yugoslavia, at any rate - and with a strong capitalist Kingdom of Yugoslavia firmly aligned with the West, the Soviets might not have been able to pull basically all of the Balkans into their sphere of influence during the next decade... and maybe a smaller socialist bloc would not have survived the crisis of the early 90's... but oh well, I'm just rambling here.
 
What has potential for more faithful consequences than whatever happens to the Yugoslav King is the fact that there was Bartou, French foreign minister. Had he died, grand Alliance between France and the USSR would possibly be reversed. That Hitler fellow could do who knows what in that case.

This way, France challenged him as soon as German troops attempted to occupy Rheinland. Yugoslav civil war that ensued eventually was as much consequence of Alexander's hard line policies to keep the state centralized as it was of the Soviet and the British meddling.
 
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