DBWI: Would a massive famine in mid-1990s toppled the North Korean regime?

chankljp

Donor
Looking back, the North Korean regime was at it’s weakest during the 1990s’, with the country losing most of their economic and trade partners in the Eastern Bloc with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The lost of subsidized cheap oil from the Soviets hit the North Koreans particularly hard, as it heavily affected their industrial production capacity. But against almost everyone’s expectations, the Kim dynasty was able to retain control of the country.

But what if nature decided to, as the Chinese saying goes, ‘Throw rocks down at a man drowning in a well’ while the regime was at it’s weakest?

Let’s say that a series of unfortunate natural disasters were to hit the country in the 1990s’, with a devastating floods ravaged up to 30% of the country’s limited arable lands and destroying their grain reserves, together with over half of their power generation capacity due to flood damage to country’s production infrastructure, crippling their already oil starved industry.

Would the resulting famine, which will rival the Holodomor or the Great Leap Forward, be enough to topple the North Korea regime? Or will it force Kim Il Song to enact economic reforms in order to gain much needed foreign reserves, resulting in the country slowly opening up?
 
I think the Kims will find some way to keep in power, if only barely. Perhaps they would cut down on their military, though I have a hard time seeing them do that. I don't see it rivaling the Holodomer because it isn't intentional nor the Great Leap forward since the scale of China to DPRK is so different. If famine got really bad, we could see a military coup, which would probably be lead by moderates, willing to seek some rapprochement with the west. I think a famine would weaken them where they wouldn't be able to launch their invasion of the South in the 2009, which means no second Korean war obviously, which would save countless lives. Of course a famine might drive the Kim il Song to invade the South earlier, perhaps for food and resources? Or just to distract the people?
 
I'm not in any way familiar with North Korea of this period, but I'll give it a shot. Now sino-north Korean relations of the time aren't as bad as they are nowadays, so I think China will be willing to prop up the Kims just so streams of refugees dont flood into Manchuria. This also means that North Korea can't do anything stupid (eg invade south Korea). While any sort of reform would be a long shot, I'd say the Kim's could hang on, albiet barely.
 

Cook

Banned
Maybe it'd delay their nuclear program? It seems to me that that would be the easiest thing to divert money from in order to buy food internationally. You might have a North Korea with only a limited, or even no nuclear capability. Without nuclear weapons and a reliable missile to deliver them, North Korea would pose considerably less of a threat to Japan, consequently they may not have expanded their military to the same degree that they did.
 
I think such a famine would cause a military coup followed by cutting any non-essential spending. Nukes don't happen. The world doesn't pay any attention to the Norks.

If the South somehow hears of the famine and tries to smuggle food/aid into NK, this would get interesting.
 
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