So assuming that the Kaiser allied with Austria-Hungary instead of Russia, does that mean when the First World War starts over Bosnia in 1908, Germany gives the Blank Cheque to the Austrians instead of the Russians?
I would imagine that without Germany offering everyone a slice of the A-H (and Ottoman) Empire, that Italy, Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria would have joined the Entente instead of the Triple Alliance.
Serbia and Bulgaria... its been a long time since I heard those names. I'd certainly imagine that without those pie-in-the-sky promises of Russo-German aid where all their dreams would come true those two would have never joined the war, which in the long run would have been absolutely nessicery for their political and cultural survival. The Post-War occupation and displacement was hard on everybody, but the already poor and underpopulated Serbia (The eastern parts of modern Bosnia, for the less historically knowledgable) and Bulgaria (The Ottoman Vilyet of North Rumelia) got the worst of it. Romania, at the very least, had solid enough demographics and avoided enough of the worst looting/ethnic tensions to avoid the local population collapse. Italy is aligning against A-H pretty much no matter what though... they did it anyways even though it meant getting surronded by the Franco-Hapsburg alliances
Though, I'm not so sure A-H would be as willing to start the war in the first place if she only had Germany backing her up. With all the other Great Powers backing her, diplomatically the situation was much better for her intervention in Bosnia that it would be otherwise. The affair would have, in my opinion, gone to an international conferance which would have been tolerated, if not beloved, by the world. It was only because the Russo-Germans (w/ tact Italian support) thought with good reason they had total regional superiority IOTL that they allowed the situation to escalate as far as they did. Vienna could have, and by all means was expected to, blink first.
Meaning that Germany wouldn't have been able to support the Qing Dynasty's Guangxu Reformation, right?
No more so than in our timeline, given the last thing Russia wanted was a Qing that could re-assert itself in the Far East and threaten the Trans-Siberian railway, Russian interests in Manchuria (Remember; Vladivostok and the good parts of the Russian Pacific Coast WERE tradtionally Manchu lands as well, and are not only commercially valuable but vital to supply the fleet at Port Arthur to keep the Nipponese in check.) "The Yellow Perial" WAS one of the ideological pillars of Russia seeking German support, after all.
We certainly saw WAY more moral/dipolomatic support then this timeline would produce for the Empress-Dowger, sure, but to do much material they need to reach a concordance with the Czar. What do you think would have been a realistic/smart move? It's possible, I'm sure (With a German move towards Britain and her allies, its impossible), I just can't think of any good timeline where Nicholas and Fredrick can balance a strong China with Russian concerns.