DBWI: WI Russia had supported Serbia in 1914?

Anaxagoras

Banned
The Third Balkan War, as we all know, started because some stupid Serbian nationalistic hotheads assassinated the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June of 1914. About a month later, the Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on Serbia. Despite stronger than expected resistance, the Serbs were defeated by the spring of 1915.

What is not widely known is that one of the reasons the Serbs felt they might be able to get away with assassinating Archduke Ferdinand is that they felt the Russian Empire would protect them from Austro-Hungarian reprisals. IOTL, the Russians were deterred when it became clear that supporting the Serbians would mean war with Germany.

WI the Russians had been a little more bold (or a little more reckless, perhaps) and announced that they would come to the support of Serbia if Austria-Hungary attacked them? Would Austria-Hungary have still gone to war? Would the Germans have supported them, or backed down? Could this event have possibly lead to a general European war?
 
The Russians may use pan-Slavism to distract the rabble but you don't really think the Kremlin would sacrifice its military in defense of some malarial Balkan backwater?

OOC: No there's no malaria in Serbia.
 
I see the Germans staying out of it. Start a general European war over some backwards microstate in the Balkans? Not really likely. Austria-Hungary probably has to back down, rather than face a war against Russia. Serbia doesn't have to suffer the Austrian occupation, but I doubt that makes it any more developed than it is in OTL. Bulgaria is slightly smaller.

Of course, a war could be just the thing required to keep Austria-Hungary fully intact, with all of those nationalities uniting against a common foe.
 
The Russians may use pan-Slavism to distract the rabble but you don't really think the Kremlin would sacrifice its military in defense of some malarial Balkan backwater?

You're falling into the idea that Russia was weak militarily just because of its defeat a decade previously. There had been many reforms undertaken since Mukden, and I'm pretty sure the Imperial Army could easily have held its own against the Austrians, though the Germans entering the mix would be different.
 
I see the Germans staying out of it. Start a general European war over some backwards microstate in the Balkans? Not really likely. Austria-Hungary probably has to back down, rather than face a war against Russia. Serbia doesn't have to suffer the Austrian occupation, but I doubt that makes it any more developed than it is in OTL. Bulgaria is slightly smaller.

Of course, a war could be just the thing required to keep Austria-Hungary fully intact, with all of those nationalities uniting against a common foe.

That’s the Hungarians not the Russians in A-H’s case.;)

Seriously, this really depends on how France in particular reacts if France backs Russia's move to protect Serbia, then the Kaiser would likely press Vienna to back off. Accepting some other from of reparations from Serbia to save face.

If a between Serbia and A-H drags Russia in them well A-H's will suffer a crubstomp, unless Germany quickly sends help. Italy may try for a backstab on A-H as it did OTL if the Russians do well enough. The Serbs could also give the A-H a bloody nose as it did OTL.

This intresting. we get an early war, might be good for the Russians in an odd way they can mobilise earlier, will have clearer, more noble and popular reasons for fighting (I.E actually saving Serbia) that could help the Tsarist regime quite a bit. As in this case Russia is much less likely to launch disastrous offensives. Placing any troops on for mobilised for the Russo-German border on a defensive footing.
 
You're falling into the idea that Russia was weak militarily just because of its defeat a decade previously.

No, merely an acknowledgment that no war lacks cost and casualties and Mikhail wouldn't waste a kopeck or a Cossack on Serbian instigators.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, Russia lost a lot of face in the aftermath of the crisis, which ended their claim to being the protector of Slavdom. Indeed it likely precipitated the coup against the Czar, which ended with his uncle heading up the Romanov family and the nation. Also, for the record, Germany did support Austria to the hilt during the crisis with their 'blank cheque', which caused Nicholas to back down. Germany was very reckless with their actions during this point and would have likely gone to war over the issue. Indeed there were indications that they wanted war and were looking for the excuse, only to be disappointed in the result.

And as a point of history, the Serbian invasion ended in 1914 after two months, during which the crisis again inflamed popular sentiments in Russia, but was saved by the palace coup, which incapacitated the Russian political apparatus. The entry of Bulgaria in September was also a major tipping point, as they then gained their desired land, but changed the tone of the invasion, as another slavic power was involved, instead of just the Germanic bully beating up on the tiny Serbs. The aftermath was a mess and lasted until 1915 with the extremists fighting against the new royal family in Belgrade, which required Bulgarian and AH troops to quell.

But the Balkans were much more stable after the mess. That is until Franz Josef died and the Hungarians managed to bully Kaiser Karl into defacto independence in just about every way, except for the customs union. One could say it led to a much stronger Austria and Hungary, with both sides of the Habsburg federation developing without the troubles of the other, but the fate of Hungary later on kind of nixes that theory. Honestly the scenario was better for the Austrian, who then were able to effectively deal with the Czechs, though there were significant troubles in the process. Ultimately though, had the Russians stood up then and war resulted, I don't like their chances. Sure, France would have joined in, though who know if Britain would have; I personally doubt it, as the Anglo-German reproachment had already started. Russia would have fallen into revolution sooner than it did, which would have been uglier than that mess they fell into during the 20's. Revolutions during war always are, like in 1905.

I guess it is a good thing for Western civilization that the war did not result from the crisis, as it would have spiraled out of control. I don't think either side was strong enough to pull a quick win off; technology had evolved too much in some ways, but not enough in others to quickly win. Luckily we never had to find out.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Of course, a war could be just the thing required to keep Austria-Hungary fully intact, with all of those nationalities uniting against a common foe.

But many of those nationalities are Slavs themselves. Do you think they would unite behind the Hapsburg government to fight against fellow Slavs in Serbia and Russia?
 
But many of those nationalities are Slavs themselves. Do you think they would unite behind the Hapsburg government to fight against fellow Slavs in Serbia and Russia?

You tell me: do the Balkans economically, culturally, and internationally look towards Vienna today, or St. Petersburg? Aside from the obvious case of Hungary, the Balkans are more tied to Austria and to each other by the economics of the Treaty of Salzburg than by any zaniness of the Pan-Slavic Council.

Granted, I think at this time there may have been some trouble, but there didn't seem to be too many issues for the Austro-Hungarians when they fought the Serbians.
 
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