DBWI: Wi no 1991 Downing Street Attack?

Hi all,

As everyone in the UK knows, on February 7th 1991, the IRA successfully launched a mortar shell at 10 Downing Street, killing the Prime Minister of the time, John Major.

Now I know this has been discussed on here many times, but I haven’t seen it recently and the topic interests me, as it’s the first politically related event I really remember hearing about, as a child of 5 at the time.

Let’s say that the attack is either averted or at the very least is a lot less “successful”-(eg no deaths/injuries as a result). So what happens in the immediate/short-term future? Obviously there’s no reason ITTL for the (all be it fairly limited) crackdowns we saw in the immediate aftermath, which in itself changes a lot. What’s John Major’s remaining time in office like? As he was only PM for a couple of months IOTL I do wonder what he’d have done given more time. Does this have any effect on what’s happening in Iraq?

When exactly is the next election? And who wins it?

Long-term, what effects does no Downing Street Bombing have on the IRA, the UK and the world at large?

OOC-I’ve tried to leave it as vague as possible, basically Major dies, though he’s probably not the only death/casualty-I’ll leave that to be determined by others however.
 
OOC: The war cabinet was in session at the time, so a mortar attack would likely see several casualties apart from Major, and leave most of the rest seriously injured.

IC: Well Ireland would certainly be in a better position, those sanctions really hurt their economy. Hard to say how Britain would be today without his death since he'd really only just been elected.
 
Probably not a great deal would be different except he would lose to Kinnock rather than Heseltine in 1992.
 
Well Kinnock didn't really "win" that election did he? True he ended up as PM, but it was a hung parliament.

That said, if Major survives I do believe that an outright Labour victory in June 1992 (the most likely election date imho) would be likely, as you wouldn't have the lingering sympathy for the government you had IOTL, or the support for the measures that were implemented post-attack.

That's by no means a certainty though as it's hard to tell what Major could have done in office.

I do wonder whether the Tory Leadership election would have been different had Major lead the Tories into that election though. For a start, Heseltine could well have put himself forward. I personally doubt that he'd win even if he did (there was no immergency as there was in OTL, so their'll be more time for people to gather round alternatives) but his presence could effect things.
 
That's interesting in itself, though Irish politics (or the Irish economy) isn't my strongpoint. SO what do you see happening in Ireland?

Ooc: I figured ther'd probably be more casualties, though I thought I'd leave room for discussion on that point.
 
Well we would not have had Thatcher in office until 1997 and of course those executions (some of innocents) would not have happened
 
That's interesting in itself, though Irish politics (or the Irish economy) isn't my strongpoint. SO what do you see happening in Ireland?

Ooc: I figured ther'd probably be more casualties, though I thought I'd leave room for discussion on that point.

The UK had at this stage long accepted that the actions of the IRA had nothing to do with the Republic, so I can't see any reprisals in terms of sanctions against the Republic (and you get back to the point of mutual assured economic damage, the ROI makes up 20% imports/exports of the UK alone).

Edit: The IRA killed an UK Ambassador, and a senior member of the Royal Family without the Republic being held accountable for their crimes, and the citizens of the Republic burnt down the UK Embassy without repercussions, so I don't the ROI being held responsible for this.

By 1991 the economic reforms that would create the first section of Celtic Tiger are underway and shouldn't be affected. The Republic might be "encouraged" to spend some more on the Army but that's about it.

In NI the Peace Process is most likely dead for a decade if not a generation, which might have consequences
 
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