DBWI: What if Yugoslavia Falls?

I've recently stumbled across a book written by some American journalist, back in the early 1980s, called the Coming Collapse of Yugoslavia.

I was not struck by the contents, since back then people in the west tends to hold stereotypical views on the Eastern Europeans, but I was still shocked by the degree of ignorance I saw in some of the judgements, like people there are all mad nationalists who always tried to kill each other and was only stopped from doing so by the iron fist of the reds blah blah.:confused: (Curiously, an ignorant right winger making the reds look like good guys in a book that's all about communism-bashing.)

I means, seriously, what would the dude think if he see today's Yugoslavs Union, with her internationally prestige, high living standard, democratic system as well as ethnic harmony that is on par with, if not better than, any western European Nation?

Now, to show how stupid people can get, I'm starting a Yugoslavia-screw scenario,in which you guys can screw up Yugoslavia as much as possible, making civil conflict, economic collapses, or even wars happen to the country(Yes, I know it'd be hard for its lack of plausibility). ;)
 
I've recently stumbled across a book written by some American journalist, back in the early 1980s, called the Coming Collapse of Yugoslavia.

I was not struck by the contents, since back then people in the west tends to hold stereotypical views on the Eastern Europeans, but I was still shocked by the degree of ignorance I saw in some of the judgements, like people there are all mad nationalists who always tried to kill each other and was only stopped from doing so by the iron fist of the reds blah blah.:confused: (Curiously, an ignorant right winger making the reds look like good guys in a book that's all about communism-bashing.)

I means, seriously, what would the dude think if he see today's Yugoslavs Union, with her internationally prestige, high living standard, democratic system as well as ethnic harmony that is on par with, if not better than, any western European Nation?

Now, to show how stupid people can get, I'm starting a Yugoslavia-screw scenario,in which you guys can screw up Yugoslavia as much as possible, making civil conflict, economic collapses, or even wars happen to the country(Yes, I know it'd be hard for its lack of plausibility). ;)

I remember that book. It was written in 1981 during the height of the Cold War. It wasn't very good, but at the same time it could have happened.

Harry Turtledove wrote a short story, as part of his "'80s World" universe, concerning a Yugoslavian collapse scenario back in 1989 and it was actually pretty plausible, given it's POD. What's really funny, btw, is that he pegged the USSR's collapse occurring on Nov. 22, 1991......only 3 months before it actually occurred IOTL!
He even had Clinton as President for two terms, 1992 to 2000, exactly as what happened IOTL(albeit with different scandals and such. You may remember the Lewinsky case? Get this: She wasn't a mule for money laundering as per OTL.....but rather, in Turtledove's world, she was actually having an affair with Pres. Clinton himself! Talk about mindblowing! :eek:). He sure had a knack for predicting trends back then.....:D
 
Well and I know this is very unlikely even ASB but what if after Tito died there is a rise in ethnic tensions maybe even formation of independant states. I`m not sure how many states but let`s go with Serbeia, Croatia, Solvenia and Bosinia. This leads to violence between some of the ethnic groups and eventually a series of wars in the next decade. I know it`s very silly.
 
Well and I know this is very unlikely even ASB but what if after Tito died there is a rise in ethnic tensions maybe even formation of independant states. I`m not sure how many states but let`s go with Serbeia, Croatia, Solvenia and Bosinia. This leads to violence between some of the ethnic groups and eventually a series of wars in the next decade. I know it`s very silly.

That's pretty much what happened in Turtledove's novel, btw. It wasn't a likely scenario but I think Harry did a fantastic job pulling it all off. :D
 
I've actually read a scenario where Yugoslavia descends into bitter civil war, with the Serbs desperately trying to hold it all together, and they get so brutal that a US-led NATO coalition begins bombing the Serbs,:rolleyes: and Yugoslavia ends up being broke up by force.
 
I remember that book. It was written in 1981 during the height of the Cold War. It wasn't very good, but at the same time it could have happened.

Harry Turtledove wrote a short story, as part of his "'80s World" universe, concerning a Yugoslavian collapse scenario back in 1989 and it was actually pretty plausible, given it's POD. What's really funny, btw, is that he pegged the USSR's collapse occurring on Nov. 22, 1991......only 3 months before it actually occurred IOTL!
He even had Clinton as President for two terms, 1992 to 2000, exactly as what happened IOTL(albeit with different scandals and such. You may remember the Lewinsky case? Get this: She wasn't a mule for money laundering as per OTL.....but rather, in Turtledove's world, she was actually having an affair with Pres. Clinton himself! Talk about mindblowing! :eek:). He sure had a knack for predicting trends back then.....:D

Come on, you cannot make a bunch of wild predictions without getting one or two of them right: he also predicted that Ceausescu would be shot with his wife, and Romania would enter a war with disintegrated Russia over Moldova etc etc.

Can't believe you guys are such fans of Turtledove, he is basically too good at fantasizing, especially over Yugoslavia: war rapes, mountain of skulls, a three way civil war, ethnic confusions... Admittedly those may occur during a civil war, but never to the Balkan Switzerland.

You guys still remember the "Greek volunteers fighting for Yugoslavia" story? In our history Greece and Yugoslavia almost came to wars for the naming of Yougoslav Republic of Macedonia.
 
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Come on, you cannot make a bunch of wild predictions without getting one or two of them right: he also predicted that Ceausescu would be shot with his wife, and Romania would enter a war with disintegrated Russia over Moldova etc etc.

Can't believe you guys are such fans of Turtledove, he is basically too good at fantasizing, especially over Yugoslavia: war rapes, mountain of skulls, a three way civil war, ethnic confusions... Admittedly those may occur during a civil war, but never to the Balkan Switzerland.

You guys still remember the "Greek volunteers fighting for Yugoslavia" story? In our history Greece and Yugoslavia almost came to wars for the naming of Yougoslav Republic of Macedonia.

I don't remember Turtledove ever saying that Romania would go to war with Russia. Perhaps you had that confused with "Swarm on the Prut"(It's not a bad TL, btw, though it takes place in 1948 instead of the '90s)?

Although I can admit that his prediction of the Romanian dictator's assassination was a little off; he was instead ousted peacefully in 1987, with some (slightly reluctant) help from Gorbachev. Ceaucescu's successor, btw, did a lot to bring Romania into more modern times. :D
On the other hand, though, he was eventually tried in The Hague for his actions during the Romanian Spring......and found guilty. Last I checked, he was rotting in a prison somewhere in Holland.
 
It could happen. You only have to go back to WWII to see the kind of ethnic tension that leads to a collapse. Sure, lots of young Yugoslavs are happy with their identity, but there's plenty of parents and grandparents who still think they're Serbs or Bosniaks or Croats. Plenty of them haven't forgotten the atrocities committed in the war.

I think Reuters did a recent poll and somewhere around 30% of the public still support independent governments for their respective communities, granted it was only around 10% for young Yugoslav adults.
 
It could happen. You only have to go back to WWII to see the kind of ethnic tension that leads to a collapse. Sure, lots of young Yugoslavs are happy with their identity, but there's plenty of parents and grandparents who still think they're Serbs or Bosniaks or Croats. Plenty of them haven't forgotten the atrocities committed in the war.

I think Reuters did a recent poll and somewhere around 30% of the public still support independent governments for their respective communities, granted it was only around 10% for young Yugoslav adults.

Yes, that's why Milosevic could get around 15 percent of the Serb votes when he came out of the jail... I think the Yugoslav government made a mistake for jailing him though, though his views are a bit extreme, jailing him would only make a martyr out of him. :D Could it be that Turtledove's book, which made Milosevic and Tudjman his vallains, actually influenced the Yugoslav leadership? :p
 
Your post inspired mine......

Yes, that's why Milosevic could get around 15 percent of the Serb votes when he came out of the jail... I think the Yugoslav government made a mistake for jailing him though, though his views are a bit extreme, jailing him would only make a martyr out of him. :D Could it be that Turtledove's book, which made Milosevic and Tudjman his vallains, actually influenced the Yugoslav leadership? :p

Heh, maybe. That reminds me of Matthew White's "Confederacy" series, in which the C.S.A. successfully breaks off from the U.S., and goes on to conquer much of northern Mexico as well as parts of Central America & Cuba by 1940, though falling apart by the early '50s due to civil strife, like that described in Turtledove's book. It was a pretty darn good read and actually inspired a number of academic theses contemplating how the Southern economy, society, culture, etc. could have evolved with a successful Confederacy.
 
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And, what would happen to that "Yugo" car (Zastava Koral) if Yugoslavia indeed falls, like the book suggested?

TopGear made a comparison between that car and the Malaysian Proton car, it really pissed my Malaysian friends off... One latter told me that In the 1980s Proton did not fall behind Yugo that much, it's only in the 1990s that Yugo shed its image as a cheap car aimed at low-end markets.
 
Heh, maybe. That reminds me of Matthew White's "Confederacy" series, in which the C.S.A. successfully breaks off from the U.S., and goes on to conquer much of northern Mexico as well as parts of Central America & Cuba by 1940, though falling apart by the early '50s due to civil strife, like that described in Turtledove's book. It was a pretty darn good read and actually inspired a number of academic theses contemplating how the Southern economy, society, culture, etc. could have evolved with a successful Confederacy.

Well, White's book made North Carolina, a state which abolished slavery earlier than any other southern states, an island of peace in a turbulent South. Most of the critics of that book thought that he was just bashing the South by writing that.

But later Turtledove obviously copied white's idea when he predicted that Slovenia could stay out of his "Yugoslav Civil War".
 
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