The Empire State Building might still be standing today
Butterfly effects are hard to predict, but that's doubtful. Bin Laden was mostly just an isolated figurehead for a decentralised Al-Qaeda movement once he and the Taliban been removed from Afghanistan, so its hard to see that his death would really have changed so much, no matter how much disgruntled jihadi youths like to chant his name in the streets.
If the capture/assassination attempt in Abbottabad hadn't been so badly botched we might have been spared the taped executions of several Navy Seals which did for Obama's second term prospects like the Iranian hostage crisis did for Jimmy Carter, though.