DBWI: What if Warsaw was not divided by the wall?

January 17, 1991 is the day that West Poland and East Poland united into one country for the first time since the end of World War II.

On December 24, 1990, the Communist government of East Poland was on its last legs and did nothing to stop the people from dismantling the wall that divided Warsaw. Mikhail Gorbachev was about to resign as President of the Soviet Union and did not do anything to stop the wall from going down.

As Poland marks the 18th anniversary of the reuniting of the country, I have always wondered what would have happened if the Warsaw Wall was never built.

Any comments?
 
It depends on when the allies launched Operation Downfall. If they had, as we have learnt since the files have been released, decided to attack Normandy rather than the Dutch coast then I think that the Soviets would have reached the Oder before the Anglo-American troops.

It really depends on who would have succeeded Stalin as leader of the USSR, Molotov was obviously a key figure in setting up the foreign investment plans in East Poland and Austria but a more extreme figure may well have decided to have a much more insular attitude as the region would be far more economically secure from Moscow.

Who knows what would have happened though? I don’t think that President Joseph Kennedy would have won his second term if he had not made his speech in Piłsudski Square and equally, would Dole have been re-elected in 1988 had it not been for his “Cast this barrier down” statement?

In short, you’re going to see a very different central Europe!
 
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Without the Warsaw Wall, there would have been greater strains on the Sino-Soviet Alliance. Molotov, in need of an international ally, often took more extreme measures than he normally would have, all in an effort to stabilize the alliance. Chairman Lin Biao often challenged Vyacheslav Molotov on his "revolutionary fervor" throughout the 1950s and 1960s. According to many Cold War historians, Lin Biao's pressure on the Soviet state led to the brutal crackdown on Prague in 1953, the purge of Yugoslavia's Tito in 1956, and even the deployment of the Soviet Atlantic Fleet during the Suez Crisis in 1961. With the loss of the Warsaw Wall, China would have seen the Soviets only as a regional power.

Then again, we might not have had the border conflict between Jiang Qing and Mikhail Gorbachev over the Amur River border in 1989. This was the death blow to the Communist Internationale....
 

wormyguy

Banned
Yes, if Yegor Ligachev hadn't actively pursued his policy of "True Communism," forcing the "moderate" governments of the Soviet Union and East Poland out of power, then it is unlikely that the people of West Poland would have rebelled against their capitalist oppressors and reunited with their Eastern brothers. :D:D:D
 
Yes, if Yegor Ligachev hadn't actively pursued his policy of "True Communism," forcing the "moderate" governments of the Soviet Union and East Poland out of power, then it is unlikely that the people of West Poland would have rebelled against their capitalist oppressors and reunited with their Eastern brothers. :D:D:D
Well the reunification process of was started under conservative MP Karol Wotyjla in 1987, who called for a national referendum. Also, there has to be consideration for the 1989 European Monetary Crisis, when the ruble was placed on the stock market.

As for the "True Communism" path, the 1989 Sino-Soviet border conflict forced Ligachev to open the Soviet economy for foreign investment. That is why a majority of Soviet cities have "In & Out" burger joints, "Peet's Coffee" bars, along with "Planet Hollywood" restaurants...
 
As for the "True Communism" path, the 1989 Sino-Soviet border conflict forced Ligachev to open the Soviet economy for foreign investment. That is why a majority of Soviet cities have "In & Out" burger joints, "Peet's Coffee" bars, along with "Planet Hollywood" restaurants...

Or indeed, "RedStarbucks"

:D
 
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As Poland marks the 18th anniversary of the reuniting of the country, I have always wondered what would have happened if the Warsaw Wall was never built. Any comments?

You know, the thing that always struck me, was... why didn't the Soviets take the TUR (Transcarpathian Ukrainian Republic) along with Poland after WWII ? It's a small, economically and militarily not so powerful country - just like Slovakia until it's unification in the early 1960s. I really don't understand, how the Western Allies managed to consolidate the Iron Curtain on the outline of the Carpathian Mountains... The Soviets had a great chance to invade the TUR and then most of the eastern Slovak states, that existed back then. My guess is, that they weren't fast enough and the Allied defensive forces came just in time.

I remember my grandfather's stories about that Crisis of 1947. The tensions between the USSR and the WA were really bad for about three months or so... Grandpa mentioned, how everybody was affraid of WWIII breaking out just because of the Iron Curtain's location dispute. He was affraid of it more than anyone else, since he was still serving in the Zemplín Fedaration Air Force's fighter wing at the Michalovce airbase. The war could have broken out any minute, so they were permanently ready to go into action. He feared another war, he did - even though there weren't any of those darn nuclear weapons back then...

The situation gradually calmed down in June that year, but, as you know, the WA had to cease their political fights with the USSR over East Poland. It was already occupied for about two years, so I doubt they could have come to any reasonable agreement with the Soviets...

But yeah, what if ? I really can't imagine modern day Slovakia, Hungary or the Czech-moravian-silesian republic being part of the East Bloc until the 1990s - no sireee... :cool:

(OOC : :D)
 

wormyguy

Banned
But yeah, what if ? I really can't imagine modern day Slovakia, Hungary or the Czech-moravian-silesian republic being part of the East Bloc until the 1990s - no sireee... :cool:

(OOC : :D)

If the Soviets had focused too much of their attention on Europe, it's unlikely that Manchuria or Korea would be part of the USSR. It's also unlikely that they might have found allies in Pakistan or Greater Arabia.

They were quite canny with the TUR and Slovakia. By not invading the Slovakian states, they prevented the WA from stationing troops next to them. That way, the Soviet helicopter divisions could easily have invaded the Union of European States and their Unified NORAD Command allies.

As for the TUR, they consigned their national defense to the Soviet Union in 1957, and the Supreme Soviet has had the right to appoint the TUR's Prime Minister since 1960.

On a different subject, what due you think of Karl Habsburg-Lothringen winning the first Slovakian presidential election, under a platform of unifiction with the Kingdom of Hungary-Croatia?

As for the "True Communism" path, the 1989 Sino-Soviet border conflict forced Ligachev to open the Soviet economy for foreign investment. That is why a majority of Soviet cities have "In & Out" burger joints, "Peet's Coffee" bars, along with "Planet Hollywood" restaurants...

Ligachev did, however insist that equal amount of square footage of Soviet state businesses had to be built in the US, at the expense of the corporations who built restaurants in the USSR. That's why all those GUM supermarkets started popping up everywhere!

I hear that Peet's Coffee has never done well in Bulgaria. Must have been the incident where their translator played a little joke on them. Not very many Bulgarians wanted to drink "Piss Coffee!"
 
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As for the TUR, they consigned their national defense to the Soviet Union in 1957, and the Supreme Soviet has had the right to appoint the TUR's Prime Minister since 1960.

Didn't know they were a bullied puppet state for real ! I thought those were just rumours... :eek: God... :( But it doesn't matter now, the Cold War is over anyway...

Hehe, just thought of a crazy AH topic. Could you imagine us here in central Europe being dependent on Soviet oil and gas, and the Russians cutting it off, if we were dissobiedient ? Hilarious, I know... :) Luckily, we have been supplied with fossile fuels by Greater Arabia, Norway and Great Britain ever since the late 1960s. Can't fail... Although I keep hearing news about the deposits in the Northern Sea starting to severely diminish in the last decade... :(

On a different subject, what due you think of Karl Habsburg-Lothringen winning the first Slovakian presidential election, under a platform of unifiction with the Kingdom of Hungary-Croatia?

You're clearly a foreigner, since you've confused it a little. Otto von Habsburg tried to claim the throne of Austria, then Hungary, and even the Czech lands and our balkanized country a few times during the inter-war period, but he didn't succed, did he ? Karl Habsburg-Lothringen is long dead, so it must be just some fraud nutjob claiming the non-existant throne, since Hungary hasn't been a kingdom since the times of Horty's reign. Also, diplomatic relations between Hungary and Croatia are pretty strained in the last few years. They're argueing over some joint economic treaty or project of theirs... I doubt it will materialise. That river cargo ship project on the Danube still hasn't materialised - ever since the 1970s, when it was first proposed...

But, yeah, back to our topic. :)

(OOC : I was hinting at Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros, which was actually finished in OTL 1990s, although not completely. In this reality, it is still way off the planned schedule of coompletion. Hungary and Slovakia in this TL are similiar to their OTL counterparts, the Czech lands are more federative and Poland is as it is... And yeah, the part with the Russians cutting off our fossile fuel resources from us is a reference to the current gas crisis over here... :D )
 
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wormyguy

Banned
You're clearly a foreigner, since you've confused it a little. KHL is just some fraud nutjob claiming the non-existant throne, since Hungary isn't a kingdom since the times of Horty's reign. Also, diplomatic relations between Hungary and Croatia are pretty strained in the last few years. They're argueing over some joint economic treaty or project of theirs... I doubt it will materialise. That river cargo ship project on the Danube still hasn't materialised - ever since the 1970s, when it was first proposed...

The Treaty of Kiev, 1933, which absolved the border dispute of Hungary and Croatia, technically created a supra-national entity called the "Kingdom of Hungary-Croatia," at Hungarian insistence. However, both states have since declared themselves "republics within the Union." KHL wants Slovakia to become a signatory to the Kiev Treaty.

Of course, the President is a figurehead position, selected by the old Hungarian nobles in Slovakia, if I understand it, but it still seems an interesting development. :p

(OOC: How about this TL for Slovakia/related. After WWI, racial and political tensions within the Austro-Hungarian Empire ]are even greater than OTL, causing Slovakia to fragment into minature republics, communes, and fiefdoms ruled by the old nobility and Czech irredentism to go out of control [yet strangely not directed at their Slovakian kin]. In 1990, Slovakia is reunified. Part of the (myriad) conditions for the reunification of Slovakia is the nobles keeping their titles, and electing the President from among themselves. The President has no powers except for granting pardons. Of course, that's not the only condition, the Bratislavan Supreme Soviet was legitimized and given the right to elect the Premier, who has no powers except to veto the president's pardons and appoint ambassadors. Real power resides with the parliament, which due to various reunification compromises consists of over 2000 members from over 600 political parties. Reunified Slovakia is not a very stable state (as nothing "reunified" ever is). It is in essentially a similar economic condition vis a vis the West because of 60 years of economic blocades from the Soviet bloc and between the Slovakian microstates. Also the, Soviet Union is much more of a force, since it, thwarted in its attempts to gain a "buffer" in Eastern Europe, is also spared the cost of rebuilding those states after WWII and subsidizing their economies. Instead it turns to Asia, and, critically, POD2 is that they are much more focused on the Middle East, meaning they are much more aggressive even than IRL in the Suez Crisis, and, crucially, manage to gain economic and military hegemony throughout the Middle East. As a result, Pan-Arab Socialism is much more popular, hence Greater Arabia. Igor Sikorsky never leaves Russia, hence Soviet helicopter divisions. It must be miserable having no gas over there. It's -10 degrees Celsius up here, and I can't imagine having no heating. I shouldn't take it for granted, our heating oil comes from Venezuela!)
 
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Ligachev did, however insist that equal amount of square footage of Soviet state businesses had to be built in the US, at the expense of the corporations who built restaurants in the USSR. That's why all those GUM supermarkets started popping up everywhere!

I hear that Peet's Coffee has never done well in Bulgaria. Must have been the incident where their translator played a little joke on them. Not very many Bulgarians wanted to drink "Piss Coffee!"
Unfortunately, much like the Zils of the 1980s or the "Gamer Wars" of 1987 (e.g. Tetris v. Atari), most Soviet consumer products tended to be poor in quality.The only consumer products that seem to be doing well in the Soviet Union are porn DVDs, mail-order brides, and bootleg software....

I remember Chris Rock pointing out during the Rodney King case in 1992, "When the LAPD said that they caught Rodney King's Zil going 100 mph, the Zil manufacturers used the line in their commercials..."
 

NomadicSky

Banned
OOC-A divided Poland?

If the Allies pushed farther East leaving a divided Poland what would it look like?

That would mean that all of Germany would have been under US influence and possibly the Czechs.

What might the borders be like?

I'd guess Poland overall would be smaller and why would their capital city be a divided zone?

Poland wasn't an enemy combatant the way that Germany and Austria were that's why Berlin and Vienna were divided.

Since Warsaw is around the middle of the country I'll go with this to a point supposing that Poland is divided that way.

It's western borders would probably be pre WWII or not much larger because the Allies wouldn't have moved the Germans out the way Stalin did.

And in the East it might be larger because the USSR wouldn't want their half to be to weak.

So perhaps East Poland has all of East Prussia. Now what happens to the Germans? Without East Germany would the Soviets still expel all of them into Germany?

Interesting idea it would have actually been better discussed rather than a DBWI.
 

General Zod

Banned
OOC-A divided Poland?

If the Allies pushed farther East leaving a divided Poland what would it look like?

That would mean that all of Germany would have been under US influence and possibly the Czechs.

What might the borders be like?

I'd guess Poland overall would be smaller and why would their capital city be a divided zone?

Poland wasn't an enemy combatant the way that Germany and Austria were that's why Berlin and Vienna were divided.

Since Warsaw is around the middle of the country I'll go with this to a point supposing that Poland is divided that way.

It's western borders would probably be pre WWII or not much larger because the Allies wouldn't have moved the Germans out the way Stalin did.

And in the East it might be larger because the USSR wouldn't want their half to be to weak.

So perhaps East Poland has all of East Prussia. Now what happens to the Germans? Without East Germany would the Soviets still expel all of them into Germany?

Interesting idea it would have actually been better discussed rather than a DBWI.

OOC: I'm getting more and more the uncanny feeling that this DBWI directly comes from my own "Valkyrie victorious" TL. It has a divided Poland, with a West-East border running on the Vistula and a divided Warshaw, and pretty much all of the stuff you quote. A parallel development ?
 

NomadicSky

Banned
OOC: I'm getting more and more the uncanny feeling that this DBWI directly comes from my own "Valkyrie victorious" TL. It has a divided Poland, with a West-East border running on the Vistula and a divided Warshaw, and pretty much all of the stuff you quote. A parallel development ?

OOC I'll have to go read that.
 
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