(OOC the premise is borderline ASB, but I can see the protest vote against PM John Key coalescing around Laser Kiwi as an "anti Government" protest vote as the way to get it winning the referendum. Key would be strongly tempted to ignore the result..)
IC: well, the whole process was flawed.. opening this up to public submissions was always going to generate rogue ideas.
It was an interesting mix of support for Laser Kiwi... eccentrics who liked it's quirkiness and lefties who wanted to sabotage the Prime Minister's "vanity project" (he was pretty open about favouring the Silver Fern flag).
If Laser Kiwi had failed, i think it's likely John Key would not have resigned in early 2016. Having to see such a widely adopted symbol of Anti-National Party sentiment as our flag... well, his position was untenable.
If Silver Fern had won, he'd have gone into the 2017 election in a very strong position & probably still be Prime Minister.
If the status quo had won (against any new flag), I think John Key would still be Prime Minister too. Yes, it would be a rare defeat.. but he would bounce back, he always did.. and Labour under Andrew Little didn't have the x-factor to beat him. The only reason that Little & Labour won in 2017 was that National was in disarray in the fallout after the flag & Judith Collins won a tight leadership race against Bill English (who was seen as being 'yesterday's man' and too close to Key's inner circle)
The NZ electorate were certainly not keen on our own spin on a Margaret Thatcher-style PM.