In the late 80's during the Japanese Economic Miracle, the BOJ saw that there were severe issues with an asset bubble and worked to get rid of predatory loans, enacting large reforms. The recession of 1991 was bad, but most economists agree that had BOJ not undertaken the reforms, the entire economy could have collapsed almost completely. The recession of 1991 led to some policy reforms by the Japanese government to keep the growth going, such as encouraging large-scale immigration, as well as not being involved in the bailouts of banks. Japan recovered from the ‘91 recession and implemented much needed reforms, leading to another large growth from 1993 all the way until the 2008 Great recession.
Japan’s influence is great in the modern world, with anime being a phenomenon in the west since the late 90’s, with Japanese being the most learned 2nd language in the US (about 90% of high school students take Japanese). It’s also a very common destination for American expats, especially among young American men (for some... interesting reasons). Jokes aside, Japan’s influence is very prominent in today’s world, with nearly all developments in technology coming from Japan. Japan also has a very strong military which it reformed in the 90’s and has used in many wars around the world, greatly assisting the United States in Desert Storm, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War, and is even showing some of its muscle in the Syrian Civil War today. Japanese special forces working with the US were crucial in the defeat of ISIL. Japan is long past the terrible militarism of the 1930’s and 40’s, with even the emperor formerly apologizing for Japanese war crimes in 1998. Sorry for my opinion here, but I personally think Japan is a model global citizen and I am very glad that it is as powerful as it is.
This brings us to an interesting question, what if the BOJ had not undertaken reforms after Black Monday in 1987? If the reforms which were absolutely needed at that time were not undertaken by BOJ, then most economists agree that the recession of 1991 would have been absolutely catastrophic for the Japanese economy. If the BOJ doesn’t undertake these reforms, here’s what I think happens:
1. The Japanese Economy will undergo a severe depression in the 1990’s, with the economy never being able to truly bounce back from the collapse in 1991, never implementing the policies such as increased immigration and less banking involvement that were crucial in maintaining Japan’s economic growth.
2. Japan would not be a major cultural influence today. Anime and Japanese language would not be a phenomenon in the United States and Europe.
3. Without Japan as the dominant power in East Asia, I think we would have undoubtedly seen the rise of China instead. China is of course growing rapidly IOTL, but ITTL I think it would have overtaken Japan’s economy. Perhaps China will successfully militarize the South China Sea, the only reason this didn’t work IOTL was because Japan virtually threatened China over this issue.
4. Japan would have much worse relations with China and South Korea. IOTL once the emperor formally apologized (albeit this apology was pressured by the United States and Europe), China and South Korea finally were able to have some normal relations with Japan. However, ITTL, with Japan not being as powerful, the Japanese will not be pressured to apologize for the militarism of the 30’s and 40’s, not to mention the lack of Japan’s influence in the world will lead to less study of Japanese history in the west and less knowledge of Japanese atrocities. Given all of this, I think Japan would not have apologized for their atrocities during their militarism and would still have terrible relations with China and South Korea.
5. Tech. Technology would undoubtedly be much, much less advanced today had BOJ not enacted the reforms and the economy had crashed. The Japanese tech industry came out with technology in the early 2000’s which many in the 70’s would have thought absolutely impossible. Self-driving cars being introduced in 2007 was a major advancement. The re-interest in Space endeavours due to Japan’s space program as well as the planned Japanese space tourism industry by 2020 is also something which undoubtedly would not have occurred had Japan’s economy crashed in ‘91. VR would probably get introduced about 10 years later, maybe in 2018 rather than in 2008. Computers would undoubtedly be much slower and less advanced than IOTL. I speculate that smartphones and smart watches would be introduced many, many years later, with these becoming commonplace in society about 10 years later than IOTL.
6. Lastly, less Japanese immigrants in the US as well as less Half-Japanese mixes in the US and Europe would almost certainly be the case.
It’d be a different world, and I’m certainly glad BOJ recognized the problems. What do you guys think would’ve happened?
Japan’s influence is great in the modern world, with anime being a phenomenon in the west since the late 90’s, with Japanese being the most learned 2nd language in the US (about 90% of high school students take Japanese). It’s also a very common destination for American expats, especially among young American men (for some... interesting reasons). Jokes aside, Japan’s influence is very prominent in today’s world, with nearly all developments in technology coming from Japan. Japan also has a very strong military which it reformed in the 90’s and has used in many wars around the world, greatly assisting the United States in Desert Storm, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War, and is even showing some of its muscle in the Syrian Civil War today. Japanese special forces working with the US were crucial in the defeat of ISIL. Japan is long past the terrible militarism of the 1930’s and 40’s, with even the emperor formerly apologizing for Japanese war crimes in 1998. Sorry for my opinion here, but I personally think Japan is a model global citizen and I am very glad that it is as powerful as it is.
This brings us to an interesting question, what if the BOJ had not undertaken reforms after Black Monday in 1987? If the reforms which were absolutely needed at that time were not undertaken by BOJ, then most economists agree that the recession of 1991 would have been absolutely catastrophic for the Japanese economy. If the BOJ doesn’t undertake these reforms, here’s what I think happens:
1. The Japanese Economy will undergo a severe depression in the 1990’s, with the economy never being able to truly bounce back from the collapse in 1991, never implementing the policies such as increased immigration and less banking involvement that were crucial in maintaining Japan’s economic growth.
2. Japan would not be a major cultural influence today. Anime and Japanese language would not be a phenomenon in the United States and Europe.
3. Without Japan as the dominant power in East Asia, I think we would have undoubtedly seen the rise of China instead. China is of course growing rapidly IOTL, but ITTL I think it would have overtaken Japan’s economy. Perhaps China will successfully militarize the South China Sea, the only reason this didn’t work IOTL was because Japan virtually threatened China over this issue.
4. Japan would have much worse relations with China and South Korea. IOTL once the emperor formally apologized (albeit this apology was pressured by the United States and Europe), China and South Korea finally were able to have some normal relations with Japan. However, ITTL, with Japan not being as powerful, the Japanese will not be pressured to apologize for the militarism of the 30’s and 40’s, not to mention the lack of Japan’s influence in the world will lead to less study of Japanese history in the west and less knowledge of Japanese atrocities. Given all of this, I think Japan would not have apologized for their atrocities during their militarism and would still have terrible relations with China and South Korea.
5. Tech. Technology would undoubtedly be much, much less advanced today had BOJ not enacted the reforms and the economy had crashed. The Japanese tech industry came out with technology in the early 2000’s which many in the 70’s would have thought absolutely impossible. Self-driving cars being introduced in 2007 was a major advancement. The re-interest in Space endeavours due to Japan’s space program as well as the planned Japanese space tourism industry by 2020 is also something which undoubtedly would not have occurred had Japan’s economy crashed in ‘91. VR would probably get introduced about 10 years later, maybe in 2018 rather than in 2008. Computers would undoubtedly be much slower and less advanced than IOTL. I speculate that smartphones and smart watches would be introduced many, many years later, with these becoming commonplace in society about 10 years later than IOTL.
6. Lastly, less Japanese immigrants in the US as well as less Half-Japanese mixes in the US and Europe would almost certainly be the case.
It’d be a different world, and I’m certainly glad BOJ recognized the problems. What do you guys think would’ve happened?
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