DBWI: What if the Belgian Revolution was succesful?

What do you think would happen if the Southern Provinces successfully gained independence from the Netherlands?
 
I'd imagine that they end up being conquered by France or Germany at some point. I can't see them lasting too long as an independent state nor gaining any colonies. But, if they do manage to gain independence, the Netherlands probably won't be as active a player in African colonization.
 
The territories of the Southern Netherlands that rose up in 1830 were an odd fusion of a French- and a Dutch-speaking community. I don't see how that would have worked out - the state would probably have fallen apart in two, with the respective halves annexed by France and the Netherlands. So essentially, returning to the OTL borders, except that the Walloon minority is reunited with France. It would certainly have resulted in a Netherlands-screw as the Southern Provinces were and still are important to the Dutch economy.
 
What do you think would happen if the Southern Provinces successfully gained independence from the Netherlands?

No Free City of Brussels for one.....btw, would it still be the capital of the European Community, if such were to still exist?

But, also, might not there have been nearly as much of a Walloonian exodus to America, if even any, had the Belgian revolution succeeded?

The territories of the Southern Netherlands that rose up in 1830 were an odd fusion of a French- and a Dutch-speaking community. I don't see how that would have worked out - the state would probably have fallen apart in two, with the respective halves annexed by France and the Netherlands. So essentially, returning to the OTL borders, except that the Walloon minority is reunited with France. It would certainly have resulted in a Netherlands-screw as the Southern Provinces were and still are important to the Dutch economy.





Which actually happened to a degree in 1874 IOTL, btw, after the Netherlands sided with the Germans during the Franco-German war and subsequently lost a good portion of Wallonia altogether(well, not all of it, of course: Namur and Liege are still part of the Dutch Republic today).
 
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I'd imagine that they end up being conquered by France or Germany at some point. I can't see them lasting too long as an independent state nor gaining any colonies. But, if they do manage to gain independence, the Netherlands probably won't be as active a player in African colonization.

Why not? After all, even if all Southern provinces would join this 'Republic of Belgium' (which I highly doubt), it would only have a very small coastline. Most of the coastline would remain Dutch, which is kinda neat if you're in the whole colonialism thing.
I don't think Belgium would join the scramble for Africa, though, since it just wouldn't be able to compete with the major European powers. Wish is perhaps a pity, 'cause maybe I'm naive but I've always wondered if a colonisation of Africa by smaller countries such as the Scandinavian ones or in this case Belgium would be slightly gentler than in OTL - if only because they didn't have the manpower to invest in heavyhanded exploitation.

Anyways, just like other people, I can't see it last. The uprising just didn't have the necessary backbone: the majority of the people were rather apathic to the whole thing, and the majority of the country's elite was firmly Orangist. It's just a matter ot time before the whole thing crumbles. And even if it outlasts the first few revolutionary years, I predict it would be divided in the end. If this division happens early enough, either more or less randomly between France and the Netherlands, or, if later, more or less alongst linguistic lines. There just isn't room in Europe for multinational states, unfortunately - with the notably exception of Switzerland. (Although the linguistic border might not be exactly the same as it is now. Some towns near the present-day linguistic border - e.g. Maastricht - might be 'frenchified', considering their closeness to Wallonia and the possibility that French would continue to be the elite's language for a longer periode of time.)

No Free City of Brussels for one.....btw, would it still be the capital of the European Community, if such were to still exist?

I somehow doubt it. I mean, there's a reason why they chose Brussels: although one of the two symbolical capitals of the Netherlands, it isn't the center of political power (which is The Hague). Hence, it has a relatively neutral position. If Brussels were a the capital of an independent Belgium, it would just be another Paris, Rome or London - or, in size, The Hague or Copenhagen. My guess is that Strasbourg would've become the sole European capital, with perhaps some other things being delegated to Brussels, such as perhaps the European Food Agency or even the European Defence Forces.

Of course, all this assuming that the European Community wouldn't be butterflied away, which is highly likely.

[OOC: How did Brussels end up a Free City in this ATL? After all, without Belgian revolution it would likely have remained Dutch speaking, which would have eliminated the need for a special status.]
 
If the revolt of the Southern Nehterlands was succesful then Europe would have 2 minor natiosn instead of the very influential Nation we now know.
From the 1820ties onward the industrailisation and economic growth was upwards.
Probably the new Nation in the South, with its coal fields would industrialise much faster than the North but this industrial out put would be halve compared with the industrial output as we now know it, most likely due to the vast colonial empire.
The Northen part had already a nucleus of colonial posssions, not more than some trade post in the far East and some sugar plantations in the West Indies, but this rapidly expanded after 1850. especially after machinations with the Afrikaanders and the right out gun boat politics towards Portugal, whihc resulted in colonisation or protectorate of not only the Boer republics but also vast swats of land, picked in fornt of the nose of advennturers as the Brit Ceceile Rhodes, who, after his defeat, promplty applied for Dutch citizens ship in order to pursue his fortune.
Further it is unlikley if the North would keep the former slave post of present Ghana and it is even more unlikley that, with the support of the Ashanty, this would result in the large protectorate of Ghana, inlcuding Togo and the Gambia at the African West coast.
If this independent Southern state, iif the revolt would be succesful would have colonies is unsure, probably not or some sugar flint colonies in west Africa or Central America.
It is also very unlikley that is the Netherlands would split in halve, that there will be such an impressive Royal Dutch Navy, at the end of the 19th century this was the 3rd navy of Europe. And although the relations at the last decades of the 19th century rose,due to the imperial policies, the Netherlands remained out of the major conflicts betweent the real "Great Powers". It always manage to play the large nations in order to get what it want.
Internaly there were increasing tensions between the Catholics and Protenstants, regardless language, and whihc was fueled by the large migration streams of the poverised manly Protestant parts of the country to the former Cahtolic part of Walonia. Now these day this is not an issue any more but it is replaced by a, rather small language issue. Only two provincec are still manly French and in the other former Waloon provinces the French is replaced by Dutch due to the migration stream in the 19th century.
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Belgian rebellion, please. I know it had some big effects on the Dutch state - the king abdicated in favor of his son, it probably hastened the transition to constitutionalism - but whatever the myth-making of modern-day Walloon nationalists, you can't be called a revolution if you lose.
 
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[OOC: How did Brussels end up a Free City in this ATL? After all, without Belgian revolution it would likely have remained Dutch speaking, which would have eliminated the need for a special status.]
'

OOC: See the second part of my post. It should help explain everything:

Which actually happened to a degree in 1874 IOTL, btw, after the Netherlands sided with the Germans during the Franco-German war and subsequently lost a good portion of Wallonia altogether(well, not all of it, of course: Namur and Liege are still part of the Dutch Republic today).
But here, Brussels was divided between French and Dutch speakers, and since no other solution could be found, it was turned into a city-state a la Singapore.

Why not? After all, even if all Southern provinces would join this 'Republic of Belgium' (which I highly doubt), it would only have a very small coastline. Most of the coastline would remain Dutch, which is kinda neat if you're in the whole colonialism thing.
I don't think Belgium would join the scramble for Africa, though, since it just wouldn't be able to compete with the major European powers. Wish is perhaps a pity, 'cause maybe I'm naive but I've always wondered if a colonisation of Africa by smaller countries such as the Scandinavian ones or in this case Belgium would be slightly gentler than in OTL - if only because they didn't have the manpower to invest in heavyhanded exploitation.

Anyways, just like other people, I can't see it last. The uprising just didn't have the necessary backbone: the majority of the people were rather apathic to the whole thing, and the majority of the country's elite was firmly Orangist. It's just a matter ot time before the whole thing crumbles. And even if it outlasts the first few revolutionary years, I predict it would be divided in the end. If this division happens early enough, either more or less randomly between France and the Netherlands, or, if later, more or less alongst linguistic lines. There just isn't room in Europe for multinational states, unfortunately - with the notably exception of Switzerland. (Although the linguistic border might not be exactly the same as it is now. Some towns near the present-day linguistic border - e.g. Maastricht - might be 'frenchified', considering their closeness to Wallonia and the possibility that French would continue to be the elite's language for a longer periode of time.)


OOC: Hmm....well, it seems you may have overlooked the first part of my post as well: Again, some parts of Wallonia eventually became part of France; which is certainly more plausible that it all remaining Dutch anyway, given the ethno-national tensions and other cultural factors that existed even before said POD.

And although the relations at the last decades of the 19th century rose,due to the imperial policies, the Netherlands remained out of the major conflicts betweent the real "Great Powers". It always manage to play the large nations in order to get what it want.

IC: True, but this is mainly because they were so badly humiliated after losing the Franco-German War. Well, of course, that didn't stop them from eventually entering into the Great War on Germany's side(and losing yet again), but I digress.....

Internaly there were increasing tensions between the Catholics and Protenstants, regardless language, and whihc was fueled by the large migration streams of the poverised manly Protestant parts of the country to the former Cahtolic part of Walonia. Now these day this is not an issue any more but it is replaced by a, rather small language issue. Only two provincec are still manly French and in the other former Waloon provinces the French is replaced by Dutch due to the migration stream in the 19th century.

IC: Just remember, a good chunk of the old Wallonia was annexed by France, anyway, after the Dutch lost the Franco-German War; that's also why there was a second Walloon Diaspora to the United States in the 1880's: a lot of the more nationalistic Dutch blamed the Walloons for losing the war.....:(
 
I know the rebellion used 'Belgium' as a monicker, but would that really make sense on a larger scale?

After all, the Netherlands had used Belgium as name (at least on official documents) for centuries. Much more likely a hypothetical succesful rebellion would call itself Wallonia eventually.

That said, I disagree with the posters suggesting the rebels would be so weak. Certainly, not as strong as the Netherlands historically, but the industrial core of the Netherlands was in the south. We can't predict the exact extent of a succesful rebellion, but much of the Dutch-netherlands industrial areas, in North Brabant and Limburg, might just as well have joined the former Habsburg Netherlands. This would make Walloon control extremely unstable, but leave the northern Netherlands little stronger than Denmark.

And, that means, Wallonia would be quite a strong player, possibly making a difference in a French-German conflict at some point.
 
I know the rebellion used 'Belgium' as a monicker, but would that really make sense on a larger scale?

After all, the Netherlands had used Belgium as name (at least on official documents) for centuries. Much more likely a hypothetical succesful rebellion would call itself Wallonia eventually.

That said, I disagree with the posters suggesting the rebels would be so weak. Certainly, not as strong as the Netherlands historically, but the industrial core of the Netherlands was in the south. We can't predict the exact extent of a succesful rebellion, but much of the Dutch-netherlands industrial areas, in North Brabant and Limburg, might just as well have joined the former Habsburg Netherlands. This would make Walloon control extremely unstable, but leave the northern Netherlands little stronger than Denmark.

And, that means, Wallonia would be quite a strong player, possibly making a difference in a French-German conflict at some point.

OOC: Erm.....there was a Franco-German conflict.....in the 1870s. See my initial post.
 
OOC: Erm.....there was a Franco-German conflict.....in the 1870s. See my initial post.

Maybe Avernite refers to the OP or the post of Parma?

Besides chances are there will be more than one Franco-German conflict. Oh wait, there were. ;-) (Granted some 'only' were diplomatic crises...)
 
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Revolution is a big word, more a few weeks of unrest in Brussle and Liege in 1830 initiated by some French agitators living in Brussels and who where inspired by the July revolution in France. They made use of the social unrest due to the taxes and economic climate among the low classes.
By accident mr. van Hoogendorp, was in Brussels on his way back to the Hague after a holliday in Spa. He was one of the creators of the kindom but sidelined by king Willaim I when the king evolved in an absolute monarch. Van hoogendorp intermediate between the Civil guard, errected by the bourgoisy of Brussels to counter the rioters, and the Crown Prince who was at Vilvorde. It resulted in a co-operation between the army and the civilguard and the revolt never got wing. In liege rioters were chased away also by the amry and in September any sign of unrest was dissapeared.
The bigger chance came when the liberals of the South and North united and William I came under such presure that he abdicated in favor of his oldest son Willaim II. William II had his flwas but he was just the flaboant king the Nehterlands needed. Most of his time he lived in Brussels. He already built a palace at the 'warande' when he was Prince, but after his crowning he moved to the royal palace next door and transformed this building in a real royal palace. It was not his only building project. Brussles transformed in a city a king worthy. Since he finaced most of this projects him self his successor, his oldest son, King Alexander I inherreted a kingdom and a huge debth instead of a fortune. Never the less William II legacy was one of the most prestigues Museums of Art the world know and Brussles had turned in to an example for later Housmann's Paris althoug the old city remained its medeval character, only now with a cristal clear river Zenne running through it.

Please remind me which 19th century conflicts the Netherlands was involved with? I can not remember that they were involved in a real war or at least not on the losing side. I know there were severe tensions between the Netherlands and Great Brttian when the Boer republics offred their crown to Willaim II and whihc at the end resulted in this huge land grab of nearly entire Southern Africa. One war was only avoided when the Dutch expedition retreated from the Kantanga and leave it to the Brittish expedition who was there accidentaly at the same time and bumped on each other. Also Dutch politicians tended to misuse the growing tensions between the Great powers like France and Prusssia for their own benefits and Dutch interessed.
 
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IC: True, but this is mainly because they were so badly humiliated after losing the Franco-German War. Well, of course, that didn't stop them from eventually entering into the Great War on Germany's side(and losing yet again), but I digress...
Didn't stop them from collaborating with Germany on major military projects like Project Willem/Wilhelm and Project Habsburg, which gave them the excellent de Ruyter-class carriers and Fokker Komeet respectivly. Of course by that point they had all but given up on trying to match the Royal Navy in terms of firepower and just focused on spawning O-boots like no tommorow (I think at one point they had more submarines then the rest of the world combined, poor guy who had to name all of them.)
 
It would probably end up splitting again into Flanders and Wallonia at some point, particularly with the rise of nationalism in the mid and late 1800s.
 
Didn't stop them from collaborating with Germany on major military projects like Project Willem/Wilhelm and Project Habsburg, which gave them the excellent de Ruyter-class carriers and Fokker Komeet respectivly. Of course by that point they had all but given up on trying to match the Royal Navy in terms of firepower and just focused on spawning O-boots like no tommorow (I think at one point they had more submarines then the rest of the world combined, poor guy who had to name all of them.)

French aggression, after all they did annex some of the Walloon parts of the Netherlands, pretty much guaranteed that. (Sentiment is comparable to the OTL French feelings after the loss of Alsace-Lorraine.)
 
OOC: Erm.....there was a Franco-German conflict.....in the 1870s. See my initial post.

You think removing one of the great powers of Europe from the map and turning it into an unstable but strongish French-dominated country (plus a pathetic Denmark-2) wouldn't butterfly every other conflict in unpredictable ways?

Yes, French-German conflict was likely, in hindsight, but who knows how Wallonia would affect that.
 
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