DBWI: what if the attempt on Archduke Ferdinad's life succeded

what would have happend if the black hand had succeded in killing Archduke ferdinad, rather than the failed attempt they made in OTL I know it seems specified but it could have important impact much later on
 

Deleted member 1487

Without FF enacting reforms upon ascending to the throne, there might not have been the 2nd Hungarian revolution in 1917. This event helped create the modern incarnation of the Austro-Hungarian federation. FF's death would mean no reform and likely civil war in the empire after the next heir's ascension after Franz Joseph's death, the later emperor Karl. This would mean a near certain breakup dual monarchy and untold trouble to the already fragile Balkans.

It would be a harsher world, with several wars threatening to ignite the rest of Europe and the Ottomans into numerous conflicts over the corpse of the empire. Germany might pick up German Austria, while each other nation fights for their scraps: the Italians for South Tyrol and Istria, Romanians for Transylvania, Serbia for Bosnia and the Southern Slav area, and Russia for Galicia.
 
Would it have led to general war? I don't think so. The German Empire is too smart to fight a two-front war, which has historically been Germany's nightmare.

But even if the European powder keg doesn't ignite, the Balkans become very unpleasant very quickly.
 

The Vulture

Banned
If FF wasn't around, it might have led to tensions in AH between the various ethnic groups. The Hungarians might not have launched their revolt, like someone mentioned.

I doubt it'd lead to open warfare in the AH Empire though. I mean, right now the AH Federation is one of the most stable and wealthy powers in the world, I really can't picture the various factions fighting in the streets, like something in the Ottoman Civil War.
 
Wait what are we talking about here, the famous Coronation Day Shooting of 1917, or the lesser known grenade attack on the Royal Motorcade in 1914?
 
Wait what are we talking about here, the famous Coronation Day Shooting of 1917, or the lesser known grenade attack on the Royal Motorcade in 1914?

1914 I presume. Back when the Serbs still had a country they were somewhat dodgy in that respect.
 
Wait what are we talking about here, the famous Coronation Day Shooting of 1917, or the lesser known grenade attack on the Royal Motorcade in 1914?

Definitely the latter. By 1917 FF had enough supporters in high places that it would be difficult at best to halt reforms.
 
Serbia and its Romanov Protectors would have been defeated much faster in 1914 than in 1917.
Its obvious that the French never intended to honor their accords with Russia anyway as the events of OTL show,
and I could hardly understand how winding the clock back by three years would make the Germanic powers significantly
weaker or Russia significantly stronger.

Where it goes from there I don't know, maybe Russia gets to keep its monarchy, or Germany and Austria don't develop
their industrial sectors due to a lack of availible raw materials. Perhaps Germany's territorial expansion frightens Britain more
than in did in 1917 and it foolishly steps in to maintain a balance of power on the continent instead of engaging in more pragmatic
and realistic policies.
 
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