DBWI: What if Teddy Kennedy hadn't won the 1980 Democratic nomination?

TheKinkster

Banned
I was just wondering the other day...how is our world different if Jimmy Carter had managed to beat back Kennedy's challenge in 1980? Some questions being...

(1) If you think that Carter would have eeked out the same narrow victory over Reagan that Kennedy did, how do you think a Carter 2nd term would have differed from Kennedy's 1st term?

(2) If you think Reagan could/would have beaten Carter, what do you think a Reagan administration would have looked like? Yes, I realized that the "what if Reagan had been elected in 1980" is one of the most over-beaten subjects in AH, right up there with the unmentionable sea mammal...but it hasn't come up here in a while, and I think we're ready for a fresh take on it. Personally, I think Reagan could have made a great President...but we'll never know. What do you think?
 
2) Reagan probably would've hiked-up our deficit, but could've been successful in ending the Cold War by the end of his first term.

Even though I'm conservative I loved Teddy until he tried to pass UHC in his second term -- probably led to three successive defeats (1988, 1992, and 1996) for the Democratic Party. I'm sure Vice President Bentsen still hasn't forgiven him for ending his career early...

...of course Kennedy is seen as the one who ended the Cold War (aka: dissolving the USSR) even though it didn't happen until the mid-90's
 
genusmap.php


Reagan did win the popular vote in 1980, and Kennedy failed to win any Southern states won by Carter the Southerner. Kennedy won New Jersey by a razor-thin margin of 0.7%, and in Texas by simply 720 votes. To have Reagan won the election, the best way was to pick George H. W. Bush, his primary opponent as his running mate. Howard Baker was a good man and was a qualified successor had anything unfortunate happened to Reagan, but may not help Reagan much in the election. Not sure how he could have won New Jersey though. It was already stunningly surprising that Reagan could perform that good there, against a Northeastern Liberal:p

Had Carter been renominated, he would have kept most of the South except in Texas and Florida where Reagan was leading him by wide margins in previous polls. Nothing else. Carter may in such a scenario lose New Jersey to Reagan given Carter's extreme unpopularity there, perhaps Oregon, Illinois, and Missouri where Kennedy won by less than 5%. Still, Carter would have won by a 276-262 electoral college margin.

Also, I would say Kennedy was only lucky to have won reelection in 1984. The economic recovery came just at the right time. He was still trailing Howard Baker by 10 points in January 1984. And I won't say the UHC really hurt the Democrats, it was irrelevant. The GOP controlled the Senate in 1985 (indeed since 1980), but various moderate-to-liberal Senators like John Chafee, Lowell Weicker Jr, Arlen Specter, William Cohen, Millicent Fenwick, Charles H. Percey and Mark Hatfield voted for the UHC after Kennedy's compromise. At the same time, the GOP did not seek filibuster:p At last, it was passed by a 51-49 margin.

It was after what would be called the Republican Revolution of 1986 under Trent Lott that House Republicans would begin to confront vigorously with President Kennedy on domestic fronts, leading to the temporary shutdown of the government in 1987. Politicians across the political spectrum in both the House and Senate could work together before then. The GOP would keep the House until 1998, and then you see what happens - Democrats took revenge, leading to the shutdown of government in a long battle against President Kemp. Coupled with the global economic earthquake thanks to the Japanese economic bubble burst in 1998, Kemp would be defeated in 2000 by a landslide.
 
john kerry's victory in 2000 was no shock though, democrara wanted victory the scotus had repealed uhc and the dems had been locked out of the whitehouse for 12 years.

i wonder, had kennedy not won, if we wld still see president sam brownback in 2004. personally considering the gop won in 88,92,96,04, and 08 i believe it was kenbedys staunch liberalism and decisiveness that fucked the dems over..
 
john kerry's victory in 2000 was no shock though, democrara wanted victory the scotus had repealed uhc and the dems had been locked out of the whitehouse for 12 years.

And conservatives still have the gall to complain about activist judges :rolleyes:. UHC is not and was never unconstitutional and never would've been struck down without Laxalt and Kemp packing the courts with Robert Bork and his ilk.
 
i wonder, had kennedy not won, if we wld still see president sam brownback in 2004. personally considering the gop won in 88,92,96,04, and 08 i believe it was kenbedys staunch liberalism and decisiveness that fucked the dems over..
Well, who's going to complain about Kennedy's decisiveness over the Tehran embassy staff held hostages by Iran? When he said "We will not EVAH...! negotiate with terrorists!" in the first debate, he literally swept the floor with Reagan. When the revelations came out of Iran right after the November election that the Reagan team was doing just that, and the hostages were freed just after Kennedy was inaugurated, Teddy was vindicated.
 
Love Reagan, wish he could have been President, but I gotta say President Ted Kennedy was the best thing to ever happen to the GOP. We get Congress for three decades, the White House for all but one term, the Supreme Court since 1994, and the Kennedy name brought back to Earth? I'll trade a Gipper presidency for that.
 
Top