DBWI: What if Stalin turns down Truman's ultimatum in 1948?

Actually, no. Moscow is a very large city. A nuclear bomb landing on its outskirts, especially a 1948 sized bomb (Which compared to modern city killers produces relatively little radiation and a smaller blast yield). Several hundred thousand, possibly a million would die immediately, but the rest would survive.

Which would be enough to throw the city into chaos. Another one or two (and there were 50+) would do the trick.
 
Which would be enough to throw the city into chaos. Another one or two (and there were 50+) would do the trick.

Nonesense, the Soviets had plans to shelter many people in the Moscow underground, along with evacuating those that they couldn't save. The Soviet Union was a totalitarian state, chaos and panic would have been crushed ruthlessley by the NKVD. Plus there's the fact that the Red Army would have defeated Allied forces in Europe within weeks, which would have given Stalin an interesting bargaining chip. The Allies would have been in for a rude awakening when they realized that, just as in WW2, startegic bombing is not a decisive war winner unless you have total dominance over the skies. 50 nuclear weapons and a slight advantage in the air simply isn't going to cut it. 200or 300 would have been enough, but less than 100 simply isn't enough to bring the Soviet Union to its knees. Well, at least visibly. I admit that the Soviet Union was still broken from WW2, yet the Allies would not realize that. All they would see is the Red Army continuing to advance and a distinct lack of request for negotiations.
 
I'm talking about retaliation after a U.S. nuclear attack on the Soviet Union so that worrying about making the U.S. mad wouldn't be a concern.
Okay and after a US nuclear strike they are already a dead nation anyway, not going to matter in the long run what they do to forces in Europe
 
Every student of history knows well the events of June 1948. The Soviet Union, unknowing of the provocation of the revelation of Klaus Fuchs' spying, institutes a blockade of Berlin. Just 24 hours later, the Soviet Union was given what we now know of as "The Ultimatum"--the Soviet Union was given 24 hours to agree that the blockade of Berlin would be totally ended, and that the Soviet Union would permit free and open elections in the Eastern European countries they had occupied. If this were not done, the United States would drop an atomic bomb on one Soviet city, followed by bombs on two Soviet cities 24 hours later, followed by three 24 hours after that, until the Soviets agreed to the terms.
OOC: What's the PoD? Did Truman actually make such an ultimatum? Why would he, given the Soviets wouldn't cave in? Removing the blockade, sure. "Free and fair elections in all East European countries"? Stalin can't possibly actually agree to that. Now, you have him caving in on part, but not all, but you shouldn't ever issue an ultimatum unless you're prepared to go all the way.
 
Nonesense, the Soviets had plans to shelter many people in the Moscow underground, along with evacuating those that they couldn't save. The Soviet Union was a totalitarian state, chaos and panic would have been crushed ruthlessley by the NKVD. Plus there's the fact that the Red Army would have defeated Allied forces in Europe within weeks, which would have given Stalin an interesting bargaining chip. The Allies would have been in for a rude awakening when they realized that, just as in WW2, startegic bombing is not a decisive war winner unless you have total dominance over the skies. 50 nuclear weapons and a slight advantage in the air simply isn't going to cut it. 200or 300 would have been enough, but less than 100 simply isn't enough to bring the Soviet Union to its knees. Well, at least visibly. I admit that the Soviet Union was still broken from WW2, yet the Allies would not realize that. All they would see is the Red Army continuing to advance and a distinct lack of request for negotiations.
Uh no. The Red Army of 1948=/= the Red army of 1945 or 1955

They may reach the Rhine but no further, their logistics suck and the USSR ran down its inudtry massively in 1941-1945 and still has not recovered the damage

This would be made worse by the fact that a large number of those nukes would be aimed at railway yards, taking out just a half dozen of those (Moscow is the biggest one and highest on the list) would stop the Red Army in its tracks for lack of fuel and supplies
 
Nonesense, the Soviets had plans to shelter many people in the Moscow underground, along with evacuating those that they couldn't save. The Soviet Union was a totalitarian state, chaos and panic would have been crushed ruthlessley by the NKVD. Plus there's the fact that the Red Army would have defeated Allied forces in Europe within weeks, which would have given Stalin an interesting bargaining chip. The Allies would have been in for a rude awakening when they realized that, just as in WW2, startegic bombing is not a decisive war winner unless you have total dominance over the skies. 50 nuclear weapons and a slight advantage in the air simply isn't going to cut it. 200or 300 would have been enough, but less than 100 simply isn't enough to bring the Soviet Union to its knees. Well, at least visibly. I admit that the Soviet Union was still broken from WW2, yet the Allies would not realize that. All they would see is the Red Army continuing to advance and a distinct lack of request for negotiations.

Which wouldn't save the factories, office buildings, houses etc. that just got blown to smithereens by the blast or burned down in the ensuing fires.
 
IC: Wow, Soviet intelligence must have been much worse than we've previously assumed. The rumours that Fuchs and the Cambridge Five had been turned by the Security Service must be true, so well done MI5.

OOC: In 1948 the US had a handful of atomic bombs (nowhere near 175) and only a small number of B-29s capable of carrying them. The Superforts sent to the UK during the Berlin Blockade were conventional only.
In 1948 the only nuclear capable unit in the USAF was the 509th Composite Group.
 
IC: Wow, Soviet intelligence must have been much worse than we've previously assumed. The rumours that Fuchs and the Cambridge Five had been turned by the Security Service must be true, so well done MI5.

OOC: In 1948 the US had a handful of atomic bombs (nowhere near 175) and only a small number of B-29s capable of carrying them. The Superforts sent to the UK during the Berlin Blockade were conventional only.
In 1948 the only nuclear capable unit in the USAF was the 509th Composite Group.

Yeah, about 50 which is more than enough.
 
Effects of bombing...

...Whilst an atomic bomb would not have destroyed the Moscow Metro or Stalin's various HQ, it would have damaged the transport and communications with localised EMP. The two bombs on Japan burnt out the tram motors in the two affected towns. Radio and line telephony were both badly damaged. That's worse than fire and blast damage.

Soviet troops in East European depots themselves formed a most attractive target for nuclear attack - irradiated troops in radioactive tanks don't fight well. And it's a shorter range for the US bombers.

One of the worst consequences would have been the narrowly-averted Curtis Le May Presidency; the US ultimatum over Korea gave him a power base. The world has a lot to thank Richard Millhouse Nixon for.
 
Every student of history knows well the events of June 1948. The Soviet Union, unknowing of the provocation of the revelation of Klaus Fuchs' spying, institutes a blockade of Berlin. Just 24 hours later, the Soviet Union was given what we now know of as "The Ultimatum"--the Soviet Union was given 24 hours to agree that the blockade of Berlin would be totally ended, and that the Soviet Union would permit free and open elections in the Eastern European countries they had occupied. If this were not done, the United States would drop an atomic bomb on one Soviet city, followed by bombs on two Soviet cities 24 hours later, followed by three 24 hours after that, until the Soviets agreed to the terms.

We know that Truman's anger drove him to this after the discovery in early June 1948 of Klaus Fuchs' spying for the USSR--that was the final straw that caused him to explode, as written in the famous biography Truman--"I've had enough of that duplicitous bastard--sooner or later they're going to learn that when they play with fire they're going to get burned." So when, unknowing of Truman's anger because the arrest of Fuchs was kept secret, the USSR began the blockade of Berlin...Truman had truly had enough, saying, as he did to Omar Bradley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs at the time..."...it's time we used our hammer. I'm no longer willing to let them oppress people as they please for fear of war. They're either going to back down here, AND permit free elections in Eastern Europe, or they're going to get blown to cinders until they do."

Given the naked threat of nuclear destruction at the hands of the United States--and with the knowledge they had from data Fuchs had already passed--that the USA had ~175 atomic bombs in its arsenal--a weapon they had no response to--Stalin felt he had no choice but to accede to Truman's ultimatum...the humiliation of which, combined to the effects of withdrawal of the blockade, and of the free elections held throughout Eastern Europe in December of 1948, led to the deterioration of his power until his death from a stroke in the Kremlin in March of 1949, just as a plot by the leaders of the Soviet Army to overthrow the government was about to come to fruition.


OOC: Such an ultimatum from Truman seems like an extreme overreaction to the Berlin Blockade. The Blockade was technically legal since the Western Allies hadn't secured agreements guaranteeing transit rights to West Berlin and the Soviets were reacting to the currency reforms in the Western occupation zones which they believed to be in violation of the Postdam Agreement. Even before the Communist takeover, the Communists had recieved about 40 percent of the vote in what were considered fair elections. Other countries in the Soviet block were mostly former Nazi Allies or had Fascist or semi-Fascist governments such as Poland. The Communists were the main anti-Fascist opposition in many of these countries and had at least some popular support.

It would also appear hypocritical for Truman to complain about Soviet interference in Eastern European elections when the U.S. had forced the French and Italian governments to expel Communists from their cabinets in return for U.S. aid. Also, why the outrage over Fuchs? The Soviets were just doing what all governments including the U.S. do during both peace and war. The Soviets could also justify their atomic espionage by noting that the U.S. shared the secret of the Atomic Bomb with Britain and Canada but not the Soviet Union. Truman's ultimatum despite being successful, might spark a backlash against his Cold War policies, and a higher vote for Wallace in 1948.
 
OOC: Such an ultimatum from Truman seems like an extreme overreaction to the Berlin Blockade. The Blockade was technically legal since the Western Allies hadn't secured agreements guaranteeing transit rights to West Berlin and the Soviets were reacting to the currency reforms in the Western occupation zones which they believed to be in violation of the Postdam Agreement. Even before the Communist takeover, the Communists had recieved about 40 percent of the vote in what were considered fair elections. Other countries in the Soviet block were mostly former Nazi Allies or had Fascist or semi-Fascist governments such as Poland. The Communists were the main anti-Fascist opposition in many of these countries and had at least some popular support.

It would also appear hypocritical for Truman to complain about Soviet interference in Eastern European elections when the U.S. had forced the French and Italian governments to expel Communists from their cabinets in return for U.S. aid. Also, why the outrage over Fuchs? The Soviets were just doing what all governments including the U.S. do during both peace and war. The Soviets could also justify their atomic espionage by noting that the U.S. shared the secret of the Atomic Bomb with Britain and Canada but not the Soviet Union. Truman's ultimatum despite being successful, might spark a backlash against his Cold War policies, and a higher vote for Wallace in 1948.

Very unlikely, politicians tend to benefit when they are able to get other countries to back down.
 
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