DBWI: What if Cuba was hostile to the United States?

Cuba's been an ally ever since the end of the Spanish-Civil war. What if it wasn't? I hear some fringe activists with the name "Castro" have been protesting, but I don't think they'd ever go anywhere.
 
If you avoid Batista's assassination on 1956. Even Americans didn't like him. So if his regime continue some years longer there might be someone revolutionar who oust him. But even then Cuba would need support of USSR that it could be effectively hostile for USA.
 
No way Cuba could go anti-American. The US had an unbeatable weapon in the sugar quota. If the US cuts the quota, who are they going to sell sugar to--the Soviet Union?! (The idea is so absurd that even the Cuban Communists never suggested it. For one thing, the USSR, if not self-sufficient in sugar, was itself a very large sugar producer; but of course even if it were economically feasible, a Cuban-Soviet league of any kind was politically unthinkable.)

As for that Castro guy who was killed in the shipwreck of his boat the *Granma* as he tried to re-enter Cuba from Mexican exile--I think his chances of coming to power were negligible, but in any event there is no way he was the "Communist" portrayed by Batista. Castro had been a member of the Ortodoxo party of the anti-communist Eddy Chibas. And as Castro noted in 1956, "What moral right does Senor Batista have to speak of Communism when he was the Presidential candidate of the Communist Party in the elections of 1940, when his electoral squibs hid behind the hammer and sickle, when his photographs hung next to those of Blas Roca [the Cuban Communist Party's general secretary] and Lazaro Peña [the Communist general secretary of the Cuban trade union federation from 1939 to 1947], when half a dozen of his present ministers and confidential collaborators were outstanding members of the Communist Party?" https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/newspape/isj/1970/no044/enzensberger.htm
 
Cuba could no more survive hostility to the United States than could Long Island.

If it did somehow become an enemy of the United States aligned with foreign powers (like the Soviet Union), having an open enemy within spitting distance of the US shores would be radically destabilizing on the balance of power.
 

Genghis

Banned
No way Cuba could go anti-American. The US had an unbeatable weapon in the sugar quota. If the US cuts the quota, who are they going to sell sugar to--the Soviet Union?! (The idea is so absurd that even the Cuban Communists never suggested it. For one thing, the USSR, if not self-sufficient in sugar, was itself a very large sugar producer; but of course even if it were economically feasible, a Cuban-Soviet league of any kind was politically unthinkable.)

As for that Castro guy who was killed in the shipwreck of his boat the *Granma* as he tried to re-enter Cuba from Mexican exile--I think his chances of coming to power were negligible, but in any event there is no way he was the "Communist" portrayed by Batista. Castro had been a member of the Ortodoxo party of the anti-communist Eddy Chibas. And as Castro noted in 1956, "What moral right does Senor Batista have to speak of Communism when he was the Presidential candidate of the Communist Party in the elections of 1940, when his electoral squibs hid behind the hammer and sickle, when his photographs hung next to those of Blas Roca [the Cuban Communist Party's general secretary] and Lazaro Peña [the Communist general secretary of the Cuban trade union federation from 1939 to 1947], when half a dozen of his present ministers and confidential collaborators were outstanding members of the Communist Party?" https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/newspape/isj/1970/no044/enzensberger.htm

I think its more accurate to think of Castro as Socialist Imho. I dont think it would be enough to turn USA against cuba. they wont be all that happy but they dealt with scandinavia so i dont see why they woulnd deal with Cuba.
 
Cuba could no more survive hostility to the United States than could Long Island.

This. This conversation has generally assumed that the Cubans are the masters of their own fate, but that has never been true. First Spain and then the United States have decided the fate of the island since its discovery. If a Cuban government arose that was not to the Americans' liking, troops would barely need ships, they'd wade over from Key West.
 
This. This conversation has generally assumed that the Cubans are the masters of their own fate, but that has never been true. First Spain and then the United States have decided the fate of the island since its discovery. If a Cuban government arose that was not to the Americans' liking, troops would barely need ships, they'd wade over from Key West.

Cuba is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, their currently what 19th richest country now? As a country their doing just fine for themselves, sure there are real limits to who they can ally with but America is their biggest customer and you don't piss off the guy who buys 70% of your exports.
 
Also presumably we are talking about a North Korean style regime that quickly gets its hands on nuclear weapons and rockets capable at least of hitting Florida. Having such a deterrent at hand is the only way I can see an anti-American regime in Cuba surviving for long.

How does this affect the development of Florida? Presumably southern Florida becomes a less attractive place for people to live?
 
Hostility from Cuba is bordering ASB, you just transposing our relations with Canada with those from an Island that is in all but name the 51st State.
 
This. This conversation has generally assumed that the Cubans are the masters of their own fate, but that has never been true. First Spain and then the United States have decided the fate of the island since its discovery. If a Cuban government arose that was not to the Americans' liking, troops would barely need ships, they'd wade over from Key West.

"Standard issue for assault troops in Operation Numbskulls included a rifle and an inner tube".

Hostility may be ASB, but what about Non-alignment? Still a snub at the US, but a tolerable one.

Given what the US was like during the Cold War, I suspect they'd suffer the same fate as Denmark trying to assert its neutrality too vociferously in the Napoleonic Wars.
 
Hostility from Cuba is bordering ASB, you just transposing our relations with Canada with those from an Island that is in all but name the 51st State.

Quebec or what ever their calling themselves today left during the 90s, we get along just fine with the english speaking parts of canada, and as for Quebec relations we told them that they would need Canada's approval to get into Nafta. If they have a problem with that they should talk to actual canada not us.
 
Cuba is too weak, under no scenario could it oppose the US. The US could easily invade vulnerable Cuba at any time, with minimal forces. The Bay of Pigs would be a good place for this.
 
One wonders where all the investment in casinos, huge hotels, and so forth would have gone had Cuba become hostile. Maybe some of that might have gone to the Bahamas but I don't know if the gaming laws there are as accommodating as those in Cuba. Within the continental US...good luck. Oh, sure, Nevada has some easy-going laws in this regard, but would anyone in his / her right mind want to spend untold tons of dollars to expand a very modest sized city in the middle of the desert on this shaky basis? Where would the requisite water and electric power come from? And how about an airport? IIRC, there are military airfields in NV but they're obviously out of bounds since they're primarily associated with weapons testing. Also, the airport at Las Vegas will only accommodate smaller planes, perhaps two steps above those prop-driven puddle jumpers. And you have to fly into Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix, or Salt Lake and change there to get to Las Vegas. Not exactly conducive to destination tourism.

I realize certain...ethnic organizations, shall we say...have invested some money in Las Vegas and Reno (primarily the former) but when compared to the Platinum Mile in Havana, the installations in NV look small, shoddy, and second rate. Certainly the entertainment there consists of B- and C-list names at best.
 
Cuba is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, their currently what 19th richest country now? As a country their doing just fine for themselves, sure there are real limits to who they can ally with but America is their biggest customer and you don't piss off the guy who buys 70% of your exports.

Cuba is WAY more than just a huge exporter of sugar cane and tobacco in 2016. There are also huge plantations of several tropical fruits grown in Cuba that are exported to the USA--bananas, mangoes, pineapple and more recently lychee and longan. And given the many kilometers of beaches all around the island, no wonder why it is the #1 tropical resort destination from North America and Europe.
 
Cuba is WAY more than just a huge exporter of sugar cane and tobacco in 2016. There are also huge plantations of several tropical fruits grown in Cuba that are exported to the USA--bananas, mangoes, pineapple and more recently lychee and longan. And given the many kilometers of beaches all around the island, no wonder why it is the #1 tropical resort destination from North America and Europe.

people also keep forgetting that Cuba makes a lot of radios, TV's and other electronics, their not the giant that Japan or south korea is but if you check your AC unit, theirs a good 50% chance that it was made in Cuba.
 
OOC: Guys, you can't have Cuba be a massive hardware maker, a plantation resort, and a tourist destination. Pick two, for crying out loud.
 
Top