Konrad Sartorius
Banned
As we all know, the Nationalists under Chiang Kai-Shek triumped and defeated the communist rebels under Mao in the late 1940s. What if the Communists had won, how would China and the World look like today.
As we all know, the Nationalists under Chiang Kai-Shek triumped and defeated the communist rebels under Mao in the late 1940s. What if the Communists had won, how would China and the World look like today.
Might be that Cold War would last much longer. I know that Mao was pretty egoistic and there probably would have been rising tensions between USSR and Communist China later. But without pro-West China USSR would last much longer instead that it wouldn't have collapsed violently on 1970's. And might be that Korean Civil War would be pretty different. With Communist China Korean Commies could win the civil war. And winning of Commies in SE Asia would be harder..
Interesting idea. How would the communists have handled Tibet? I've always thought the Chinese government treated Tibet terribly and effectively made them into a puppet state - would the communists let them go their own way? Would they be better, or even worse? Is it possible the communists would annex Tibet or something as drastic as that?
It wasn't really winning for the French considering they still lost control of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. They were aware of that, and took the nicer terms Uncle Ho was giving due to the Algerian Crisis that was really brewing during the late 40s. The Metropolitan was more important than an eastern colony (and Oran is such a nice place mind you).
Ho Chi Minh was always a nationalist first and a communist second, a pragmatist that used political means to achieve his goals. Hell, he only used Communism as a tool due to the Soviet Union being one of the few nations to back his cause from the beginning (well, that and he sympathized with a lot of Marxist doctrine). His repudiation of the system and adopting a Democratic Socialist approach was a way to achieve his goal of a free Vietnam. This change in tact during the 1940s made him more palatable to Cheng's China and the US, which forced France to acknowledge that a more happy parting was better than even more guerrila war.
It really did help the KMT that Zhou Enlai decided to backstab his rival Mao in exchange for amnesty too. The loss of two members of the Gang of Five really damaged the Chinese Communists.
The Chinese Communists winning would be interesting. Cheng took a decade post civil war to finally centralize the state (with the help of such figures as Ma Bufang and Li Zongren, who'd also take reins at different points), and his successors took another couple of decades to get China really start booming as the Economic Giant it is today. A solid Communist win would result in a more centralized state, but Mao as the top dog would probably have been as good an idea as the time Beria had the reins on the CCCP; terrible and crippling. He just seemed to be too much of an idealogue.
Interesting idea. How would the communists have handled Tibet? I've always thought the Chinese government treated Tibet terribly and effectively made them into a puppet state - would the communists let them go their own way? Would they be better, or even worse? Is it possible the communists would annex Tibet or something as drastic as that?
Good question. Some communist leaders wanted annex Tibet but there was some who wanted just turn the country as communist puppet state. It is good notice that any country haven't recognised Tibet as independent nation. But situation might be different if communists win the war. Problem of Tibet is that its army was on 1940's very underdeveloped so it couldn't fight alone long.
And I am pretty sure that fate of Tibetan culture would be even worse than in OTL. Leastly in OTL China allowed Dalai Lama staying in Lhasa and allowed Tibetan practise their culture on some level. I doubt strongly that communists would allow that.
Vietnam was settled easily as well because Ho realized he couldn't move against the Viet Quoc either, since they are essentially the Vietnamese KMT. So the two of them were more or less stuck together lest they provoke Chinese intervention.
A Communist China means Asia would be a potential theater in the Cold War, instead of Western-leaning bystander. That means Europe and Africa are going to have less focus with resources diverted to Asia. I doubt the Hungarian insurgency would last as long as it did if the West was occupied elsewhere. Cuba is still going to be invaded because America isn't going to allow a Communist state in the Americas, but would it get involved as it did OTL in Africa
It makes me wonder what might have happened to Japan over the years. If China had gone Communist, they would have been the US's biggest ally (in terms of population, at least) against the Soviets and the Chinese. Would they have avoided the long doldrums if China, Vietnam, and others were practically closed to Western commerce, along with the reverse?