With the brilliant and heroic (and successful) desert recuse of the American hostages in Iran it looks unlikely that Ronald Reagan can defeat Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.
The nation is expecting a Democratic sweep, but the stars and the Electoral College are not in on the plan. Ronald Reagan, B actor and party product surprises even himself by pulling out a squeaker. Losing the popular vote, he wins the White House by wining close in several key States. The nation is shocked. (And as is usual with these type of elections there is much post election banter about the Electoral College this, and the Electoral College that, but in the end, as usual, the talk goes nowhere.)
The marginalized Reagan enters office as the first 20th Century President unable to carry with him at least one house of Congress, making him the first President to enter office facing two hostile chambers. (Bush the elder actually holds that ominous distinction today.) Reagan quickly realizes if he is to get any of his conservative policies through, he will have to become a consensus president, trading social spending increases for tax cuts and defense. The Democrats are quickly seduced by the free spending Reagan and abandoned all of Carter's fiscally conservative polices. The deficit soars (as does the national debt) while Jimmy Carter fumes from Plains, kicking in his stall, he can do nothing but wait.
The deficit spending bumps the economy enough that the Republicans go into the off-year election of '82 hoping for a congressional take-over. The Democrats in the end hold the House but lose control of the Senate by a slim majority.
Filled with a new sense of empowerment (and hubris) Reagan in late November (soon to be supported by a friendly Senate) places new emphasis on his foreign policies. But when Reagan tries to implement the Kirkpatrick Doctrine in Latin America, it brings him into direct conflict with Carter's popular Human Rights policies. The Democrats now weary of Reagan's sudden growth in popularity finally plant their feet and refuse to allow Reagan to roll back Carter's successful foreign policy achievements. The House refuses to fund Reagan's endeavors and like Andrew Jackson in Texas, Reagan is forced to seek alternative financing for his filibustering into Central America.
After almost six years of being held at bay by Carter’s human rights agenda, and a scrutinizing Senate, the intelligence community, excited by Reagan's bravado quickly over-extends itself, with too many irons in the fire logistics goes to hell, while Mugwump spooks run amok. It's only a matter of time . . .
The whole magilla comes to light when the illegal financing is exposed. An arms courier is shot down over Honduras, and under the threat of execution spills out the much of the subterfuge. The Democrats, (embittered by loss of the Senate) once sheep smell blood and become wolfs. Constant leaks from within the intelligence community cause the Reagan administration to turn on itself and begin to unravel, while the Republican controlled Senate, unaccustomed to being in the majority, proves an ineffective bulwark against the Democratic/media onslaught. Ronald Reagan 40th President of the United States is impeached.
Reagan is acquitted but comes out of the ordeal damaged goods. Jimmy Carter starts talking comeback.
The Election of 1984
The stress of the impeachment trial accelerates Reagan's Alzheimer's and the American people become concerned that their President is becoming addle minded. After much soul searching the GOP decides to dump their incumbent and goes looking for an alternative. The 1984 presidential election becomes an open election.
Gerald Ford makes himself available but the Republicans don't want to run a retread and go with the New England aristocratic turned Texas bureaucrat (and current VP) George H.W. Bush.
The Democrats find themselves in disarray, not certain they want to bring back the austere (tight-fisted) Carter they refuse to offer Carter the nomination by acclamation. Carter embittered begins to mount a primary campaign. Walter Mondale refuses to run against his old boss and bows out, and while Ted Kennedy's presidential ambitions remain at the bottom of a pond, Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill sees his opportunity. The Speaker tosses his hat into the ring but ignites a firestorm as copious stories of extreme Irish behavior surface and for the first time the American public understand the hue of the Speaker's nasus. Tip O'Neill self-destructs.
The Democratic primary season proves a short one, with Carter easily defeating two unknowns, a too ethnic looking 'technocrat' from Massachusetts and a gifted man-child from Arkansas. The Democrats, without enthusiasm once again nominate Jimmy Carter of Georgia for a third run at the White House.
The more dynamic and exciting H.W. Bush (Yea, I actually did said that.) proves too popular for the aging and now even more dower Carter, winning both the popular vote and the College, George H.W. Bush becomes the 41st President of the United States. The Democrats hold control of the House (while Speaker O'Neill is 'gold-watch' out); the Democrats regain control of the Senate by a slim margin, but only because the contested seats line up to their advantage.
The rest is history, it just comes four years sooner. In the end nothing really changed but the date.