DBWI Tories win the 2015 UK general election

I was playing around with electoralcalculus.uk, and it looks like with some very small shifts in the popular vote, Cameron could have actually gotten a small majority in 2015. How would British politics change if this had happened?
 
Ed Miliband goes, probably, and there is a leadership election to replace him. My money is on Chuka Umunna to win that, though I don't think I'd have given him my first preference - that would probably have gone to whoever the left put up in that situation (if their candidate gets the nominations they need, obviously, which isn't inevitable by any means).

We'd have had an EU referendum by now (or, at least, soon), too. Not sure how that would have gone.
 
Ed Miliband goes, probably, and there is a leadership election to replace him. My money is on Chuka Umunna to win that, though I don't think I'd have given him my first preference - that would probably have gone to whoever the left put up in that situation (if their candidate gets the nominations they need, obviously, which isn't inevitable by any means).

We'd have had an EU referendum by now (or, at least, soon), too. Not sure how that would have gone.
I doubt anyone from the left would have got the necessary nominations. Loads of key voters thought Miliband was far too left, why would Labour swing even further left because he lost?

I'd expect to see a surge in support for UKIP even larger than what we got IOTL, mostly because of a government that seems totally opposed to even considering an EU membership referendum.
 
Less likely that UKIP would have won those by-elections in Oldham and Sheffield and would have gained far less than 600 council seats. They also wouldn't be polling anything like the 25%ish that they are now.
 
What about Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader? He is a really cool guy, especially when he challenged Ed Miliband last month over trident. I love his ideas on getting rid of austerity.

Shame only 8 MP's supported him...
 
Perhaps that EU referendum would have taken place, But obviously remain would win, I mean, who could possibly believe the lies told by Farage and The Daily Mail
 
What about Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader? He is a really cool guy, especially when he challenged Ed Miliband last month over trident. I love his ideas on getting rid of austerity.

Shame only 8 MP's supported him...

That ain't happening in any world. Nobody had even heard of him before the Trident debacle, and even then, it's not like he's leading the charge from the left now.

As Cevolian rightly said, the left hasn't got a chance.
 
Less likely that UKIP would have won those by-elections in Oldham and Sheffield and would have gained far less than 600 council seats. They also wouldn't be polling anything like the 25%ish that they are now.

25%?! Which polls have you been looking at? Still their place in the height teens surely wouldn't be tenable if Cameron had gone ahead with a referendum on 2017... Maybe they'd be up to that place if "No" lost that referendum and anger rose at Cameron's government...
That ain't happening in any world. Nobody had even heard of him before the Trident debacle, and even then, it's not like he's leading the charge from the left now.

As Cevolian rightly said, the left hasn't got a chance.
Yeah. Corbyn getting elected leader is, quite frankly, pretty damn implausible and nearly ASB in my opinion
 
Looking at the Cabinet now and thinking about the rumours from 2014, Burnham would probably have run and he'd have done well.

His social care initiative has caught on in a big way and the Tories claims about weekend deaths in the NHS have been well-rebuffed - he's come into his own, definitely. The Health Secretary is one of the most popular people in government right now, so a post-Miliband run would be a good bet.
 
Who would Cameron's successor be in about 2019 when he said he would resign? Osbourne would have a good chance, but Theresa May would be 63 in 2019, and might be considered too old.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Who would Cameron's successor be in about 2019 when he said he would resign? Osbourne would have a good chance, but Theresa May would be 63 in 2019, and might be considered too old.
It would be Osborne vs Boris Johnson. People would have said Cameron had abandoned traditional Tory principles, and want a rightist Eurosceptic like Johnson, although admittedly he can be rather inconsistent on Europe and has his enemies too. Maybe a return for IDS? :)
 
I don't think Osborne or May would have got it, after the years of Cameroon modernisation I imagine the Tories might have gone for someone more to their tastes. Maybe Boris Johnson - he's a good choice to bridge both moderates (especially since he's pro EU) and the more extreme members (hardline pro-austerity angle etc.).
 
It would be Osborne vs Boris Johnson. People would have said Cameron had abandoned traditional Tory principles, and want a rightist Eurosceptic like Johnson, although admittedly he can be rather inconsistent on Europe and has his enemies too. Maybe a return for IDS? :)

Johnson is far from a right-wing Eurosceptic. He's very much a liberal Tory, but he's fairly hated amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party (just see how Amess and Bone have kept Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet, preferring to fill it with their right-wing cronies).
 
Johnson is far from a right-wing Eurosceptic. He's very much a liberal Tory, but he's fairly hated amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party (just see how Amess and Bone have kept Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet, preferring to fill it with their right-wing cronies).
Agreed. One positive of A Tory victory would be we'd see far fewer hackish analogue TLs with Jeremy Corbyn as Amess...
 
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