DBWI: The USSR does not attack Germany 6/6/1940

OOC POD: The Allies were able to escape through Abbesville before the Germans took so were able to mount a more effective defense afterwords. The Germans take 30% more casualties than OTL. Stalin sees the Germans using the vast majority of their troops in France (even more so than OTL) and decides to go for it.

As we know Stalin saw that there were actually very few troops in Poland and Romania and decides to invade them himself. He took Warsaw in a week and the Plotsei oil fields within two. The political damage to Hitler was catastrophic. It was clear that he was outsmarted by a "subhuman" Slav. Rioting broke out in Berlin and Hitler was ousted by Goehring. Goering immediately sent a negotiator to France. He agreed to have the Whermacht leave France immediately and to give France a large tribute to get out of the war. Germany then sent most of its army east. The Russians got pushed back and war continued in Europe for another 4 years when the Russians sued for peace. What would have happened if they didn't attack?
 
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The French forces were far to strong to succumb to the German heel. It would be a repeat of the the first war. The Royal Air Force and manpower from the dominions would have turned the tides and brought the war to Germany anyway.
 
Probably but what about the Russians. Would Hitler have dealt with them afterwards or would he have been satisfied with France.
 
Without Soviet intervention, the Allied position in France would be untenable in the medium term. I'd say there'd be a holding action while France tried to evacuate as much of its men and equipment from the continent, a consolidation in North africa, and a season of the allies licking their wounds.

After that, I'd say they'd wait for an opening. The Axis conquest of metropolitan France would soak up a lot of losses, but there would obviously be another campaign afterwards. With the French fleet and RN taking few losses and significant Allied air and ground forces making their way to North Africa, there's not a lot of places for the Germans or Italians to go. They can try for the Balkans or go straight after Russia.

In the end it comes down to the Russians. Either Germany or Russia are going to attack their neighbour eventually. When they do, the Allies would be in a much inferior position than in OTL, but they'd still be able to threaten an invasion either against the French coast or in the Balkans. Perhaps a less than totally friendly intervention in Salonika ala WW1?

The Axis would need to divert forces from the Russian front to counter the Allied invasion threat, probably more than they did after the truce in OTL. Ironically, Russia may be in better shape fighting the Germans later than in OTL, when they had a potential continental ally intact than with France hypothetically kicked off its own soil. The Allies would be more motivated to aid the Soviets in material and would be unlikely to make a status quo separate peace.

OOC: Having a hard time picturing a status quo ante bellum peace in the west with the Germany on the ropes from the east after Germany took their best shot at them.
 
Without Soviet intervention, the Allied position in France would be untenable in the medium term. I'd say there'd be a holding action while France tried to evacuate as much of its men and equipment from the continent, a consolidation in North africa, and a season of the allies licking their wounds.

After that, I'd say they'd wait for an opening. The Axis conquest of metropolitan France would soak up a lot of losses, but there would obviously be another campaign afterwards. With the French fleet and RN taking few losses and significant Allied air and ground forces making their way to North Africa, there's not a lot of places for the Germans or Italians to go. They can try for the Balkans or go straight after Russia.

In the end it comes down to the Russians. Either Germany or Russia are going to attack their neighbour eventually. When they do, the Allies would be in a much inferior position than in OTL, but they'd still be able to threaten an invasion either against the French coast or in the Balkans. Perhaps a less than totally friendly intervention in Salonika ala WW1?

The Axis would need to divert forces from the Russian front to counter the Allied invasion threat, probably more than they did after the truce in OTL. Ironically, Russia may be in better shape fighting the Germans later than in OTL, when they had a potential continental ally intact than with France hypothetically kicked off its own soil. The Allies would be more motivated to aid the Soviets in material and would be unlikely to make a status quo separate peace.

OOC: Having a hard time picturing a status quo ante bellum peace in the west with the Germany on the ropes from the east after Germany took their best shot at them.


They aren't as germany has to give France a heavy tribute. We are talking about serious cash. The French and Brits are almost as scared of the Russians as the Germans. Either they allow the Germans to go east or they are going to fight the Russians themselves.
 
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