I know it's a controversial topic what with the recent move of the US embassy in Palestine from Ramallah to Jerusalem and with the ongoing blockade of Tel Aviv but I wonder what would had happened had the USSR supported the Arabs while the US supported Israel? I think it's an interesting topic.
DBWI: The US supported Israel while the USSR supported the Arabs?
Israel is deeply rooted in socialist ideas (the kibbutz system, etc), and European Jews have played an integral part in the development of socialism. By contrast, leading Arab figures, like the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem had favourable attitudes towards Nazi Germany. I can't see the Soviets getting into bed with the Arabs.
By contrast, the USA is going to support anyone opposing the Soviets, which means they support the Arabs. The innate social conservatism of Islam also endears itself very well to conservative American Republicans.
By contrast, the USA is going to support anyone opposing the Soviets, which means they support the Arabs. The innate social conservatism of Islam also endears itself very well to conservative American Republicans.
BigBlueBox
Banned
First of all, the Lavon affair really harmed US-Israeli relations. And when the Suez Crisiz happened, the USA denounced French-British-Israeli imperialism while the Soviet Union stayed silent. This harmed US-Israeli relations even further, while massively boosting America’s popularity in the Arab World. The Soviet Union’s popularity in the Arab World was harmed by its inaction during the crisis. Maybe if the Suez Crisis never happened the US would have stronger ties with Israel and the Soviet Union would have better ties with the Arabs.
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You can also prevent the assassination of Harry Truman by Lehi, and with no VP and Truman being killed before the 1948 succession act his Secretary of State George Marshall became president, and refused to recognize Israel and instead strengthened ties with Arabs.
BigBlueBox
Banned
Yeah, that could help. Israel denounced Lehi and cooperated with the investigation as best as they could, but American opinion of Israel was already soured. I heard Adlai Stevenson considered mending relations with Israel, but cancelled when news of the Lavon affair surfaced.
Israeli socialist inclinations certainly limit the odds of a US-Israeli partnership. There's a reason US-Israeli relations are still somewhat frosty even with the USSR gone. Israeli Middle Eastern policy also alienates both major American political parties for different reasons-the Dems don't like Israel's treatment of Arabs in the country and Republicans don't like their disregard for the neighboring Arab states' sovereignty. There's a reason very few people cared when President Buchanan got accused of antisemitism by various pro-Israel Jewish groups even though he, objectively, was at best tiptoeing the line.
Thing is, I don't think there are many Arabs Israel has to treat bad. The 1967 Arab-Israeli war limited Israel to the Tel Aviv strip and the North Bank...
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And also not a lot of widespread protest when Jonathan Pollard was executed for treason, even though that had long ceased to be the common treatment for traitors.
Anchises
Banned
OOC: I don't see that happening. If Israel is the only client for the Soviets in the ME, they will get a shitload of high quality equipment. IOTL the Arabs had better and more equipment in most wars, so there could be an argument that Israel would perform even better militarily. More weapons and other stuff.
NATO tech superiority imho isn't felt until the 80s.
OOC: I left it up to you to figure out how this happened, but fine, maybe 1967.
Great, instead of a revival of fear mongering of "Jewish Bolshevism" the world will probably end up getting a revival of a more vanilla flavor of antisemitism to fear monger. Really Iseal (and the Jews) just keep on getting the short end of the stick by fate or happenstance. Never again my arse, the world just likes to kick the weak in the face don't they?
Though given the US dominance of media and culture maybe a support of Israel might curb the worst of antisemitism (as least in mainstream culture, although that might have an effect of making the various underground culture even more toxic).
Though given the US dominance of media and culture maybe a support of Israel might curb the worst of antisemitism (as least in mainstream culture, although that might have an effect of making the various underground culture even more toxic).
By contrast, anti-Muslim bigotry is nonexistent in the American political discourse. Only a few loonies, and that's it. Muslims are an integral part of US society (in 1990 Muslim immigration coupled with Jews leaving the US led to Islam surpassing Judaism as the second largest religion in the US), and being a staunchly conservative voting bloc even the most prejudiced Republican has some sort of respect for them. In the Muslim world there is a lot of pro-American sentiment as the US has not only supported the Arabs in their conflict with Israel but Pakistan with their conflict against India, Somalia against Ethiopia and Kenya and Bengal against Burma, which explains why there are a lot of Muslim immigrants in the US.
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True, the 1970s oil embargo led to the eventual collapse of the USSR in 1983.
But couldn't the US just drill in Alaska and Texas?
Sure, for a lot more money. It's not profitable if oil is cheap and ironically, abundant oil from the Arab world keeps oil cheap. What makes oil in the Gulf/Middle East so valuable is that it is extremely easy to pull out of the ground and it is a very high grade so it does not require a lot of refining.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
You also have to chug it half way across the world in order to get it to the US though. That's why Alaskan and Texan production is still compedative on the US domestic market. The Persian Gulf oil was REALLY more important for Europe (which often gets lumped in with the US in terms of simplified Cold War histories), since it provided the cheap energy to allow for the NATO country economies fly so far ahead of the Warsaw Pact ones and forced the Soviets into the price war that ultimately lead to the breakdown of their own petroleum industry.
Sure, and that's why the US also gets a lot of oil from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria but as you point out it's all about global supply and global demand for the big happy global economy, particularly now with countries like India and China fully in the game (not to mention Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) and in the end it is the continued unimpeded flow of oil from the Persian Gulf that drives everything else for good or ill.
Plus let's be honest, while some oil in the US and Canada is hard enough to get at due to accessibility, the environmentalists only make it that much harder and we all know you don't have to deal with those folks in the Middle East.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Nowadays, of course. But back during the Cold War the economy wasn't quite as global, and might never have been if the Arabs got sucked into the closed ecosystem of the Soviet 2nd world. Plus, making that oil available for Europe meant that the American energy grid and refining system could be built from the ground up for handling the heavier North American and Venezualian crude, helping limit their potential environmental damage as well as increasing the economically-viable global supply.
I imagine that there would be overthrows of the various monarchies in Egypt, Libya, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. American support was critical for the Egyptian Monarchy surviving after ww2, Farouk was a terrible king but his alliance with America allowed him to hold onto power. If it was the soviets then I can see them loosing power quickly. As to what takes after them is hard to say. It could be a military dictatorship, soviet style socialist government of some sort, Radical Muslims or something else entirely.
On the plus side US media would not be so fascinated with the life of the arab monarchies, particularly the Egyptian Monarchy. When the crown prince of Egypt Muhammad Ali married Princess Noal Zaher Shah of Afghanistan, the US Media could not stop talking about the royal wedding.
On the plus side US media would not be so fascinated with the life of the arab monarchies, particularly the Egyptian Monarchy. When the crown prince of Egypt Muhammad Ali married Princess Noal Zaher Shah of Afghanistan, the US Media could not stop talking about the royal wedding.