What would have happened if, after Johnny Carson retired, The Tonight Show went to Jay Leno instead of David Letterman? I don't know how this would happen, maybe Johnny doesn't say anything on the topic or Letterman isn't as forceful, but I just want to know what happens if Letterman, probably my favorite talk show host ever, doesn't get his dream job. What happens to Leno's Tonight Show? Where does Dave go? And what happens to Conan O'Brien and Arsenio Hall in all this?
Letterman was a hot commodity at this time. His show attract a large audience and (importantly for potential advertisers) a younger audience than Johnny Carson or ABC's
Nightline. If he doesn't get the Tonight Show AND decides to leave NBC in protest, I could see CBS making a play for Letterman. CBS has just never had luck with late-night programming, we all know the list of flops and failed concepts: Pat Sajak (several years before this would have gone down),
CBS NewsNight, prime-time rejects and cancelled show burnoffs, Bill Maher, Jon Stewart, and many others . . .
Letterman likely would have provided the big draw CBS needed to finally become a competitive player in the late-night race, but unfortunately CBS at the time was very cheap and probably would not have paid him enough money to jump ship.
Alternately, Fox could pick up Letterman. Fox was looking to secure their position as a major broadcast network and was not afraid to throw massive amounts of money around to make it happen. Airing Letterman would have been yet another major coup for the upstart network - in fact, I think that's where Letterman is far more likely to end up (as opposed to the frugal, struggling CBS).
Conan O'Brien probably still succeeds Letterman on NBC's
Late Night (regardless of where Letterman ends up) and, stay there until Leno inevitably gets the boot for fighting with the network (Leno's ego issues being well-documented), then he likely gets the
Tonight Show. O'Brien has mentioned in several interviews that his ultimate dream job would be to host the
Tonight Show, so I doubt he would down the opportunity if offered.
Arsenio Hall is tough to call though. He had a steady audience in syndication at the time and could certainly stay there for at least several more years. But . . . if Leno gets the
Tonight Show and Fox poaches a spurned Letterman, I could see Hall's ratings dip considerably due to the more competitive late night environment, possibly dooming his show to cancellation in short order.