DBWI the Iran Iraq war doesn't go nuclear

October 3rd 1980 a day that would haunt Middle eastern history forever.

The shah had fallen, Sadam hussain had invaded Iran, both countries had secret nuclear weapon programs, and on that dark day in october, the frightened revolutionary government used the 30 nuclear weapons that had been built by the shah on Iraqi cities. In its last dying gasp the Iraqi milatary used their 40 nuclear weapons on Iranian cities.

The radiation was blown west by prevailing winds causing rising cancer rates, death, deformation, and steralization in half of syria and jorden, and causing a lot of trouble in the northern most part of saudi arabia. This was the conflict that defined the middle east during the 1980s were two regional giants vanished in one of the most brutal conflicts in human history.

But this didn't need to happen, there were plenty of points where the Iranian program could have fallen apart, and Israel had breifly talked about eliminating Sadams weapons in the infancy stage before cooler heads prevailed. If the two nations had known about the capabilities of the other the war might have been prevented.

What would have happened if this had come to pass, if the Iran Iraq war didn't go nuclear?
 
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The radiation was blown east by prevailing winds causing rising cancer rates, death, deformation, and steralization in half of syria and jorden, and causing a lot of trouble in the northern most part of saudi arabia. This was the conflict that defined the middle east during the 1980s were two regional giants vanished in one of the most brutal conflicts in human history.
I will never understand why the muslim state created after the partition of india was called "The Islamic Republic of Syria and Jordan" rather than something like "The Indus Islamic Republic". I mean the Jordan river is nowhere near it!
 
The Middle East would certainly have been a lot more populous without fallout killing, maiming, and sterilizing so many millions. The surge of Islamic fundamentalism would have probably been averted, and with it the Saudi Civil War, the Syrian Civil War with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Palestinian Uprising, etc.

The European Refugee Crisis would have been averted, as well as the Wave of Terror and all that racial violence it caused. The resurgence of the European "far-right", as so many of you still insist on calling it, would almost certainly been averted as a result; without those constant Islamist massacres and riots, those parties would have lacked a grand rallying point to make their way back into the mainstream.

The rise of the Islamist regime in Pakistan might have been averted, too. I know Zia was already in power before the exchange, but he might not have shifted so terribly far into Islamic fundamentalism without the mass radicalization after the Exchange. That probably means that we avoid the Af-Pak Crisis and the Battle of the Arabian Sea. It honestly gives me chills thinking about how close we came to a full nuclear holocaust on that dark day in 1982...

We probably would still be using foreign oil and a lot less renewable energy. Reagan was really spurred to action in that regard once he realized that the Middle Eastern oil fields were, and I'm quoting from his diary here, "perilously unreliable ... the next crisis could result in their complete destruction."

Contrary to a suprisingly popular AH cliche, I believe The US SDS and the Soviet Bright Star System probably still get completed. I get that it really took the Iran-Iraq Exchange to really kick things into gear, but I really don't see why the US and USSR wouldn't have eventually built them anyway, despite certain AHers and that otherwise wonderful TL A Greater Persia insisting otherwise.
 
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there is an argument that america would have pursued alternate energy war or no war.

But the fact is, the war caused a second energy crisis that lasted through out the 80s, then the 90s was a decade where no one was certain that the middle east could be relied on for power. With prices being high and flutating for decades america, europe, the whole developed world had to pursue energy efficiency, alternative energy, and better battery storage.

The world became more energy efficient because it had too, we all benifit from that painful transition.
 
well, for one thing, we could never have gotten that excellent Oliver Stone movie about an Iraqi Armored platoon that has to navigate the breakdown of law and order immediately following the dropping of the bombs. Don't remember the name, though.

Also, we wouldn't have seen another rise in the left after the far right neoliberals in Europe conducted all those pogroms in the wake of the refugee crisis.

Unfortunately, they all seem to be Scoop Jackson Cold Warriors.
 
October 3rd 1980 a day that would haunt Middle eastern history forever.

The shah had fallen, Sadam hussain had invaded Iran, both countries had secret nuclear weapon programs, and on that dark day in october, the frightened revolutionary government used the 30 nuclear weapons that had been built by the shah on Iraqi cities. In its last dying gasp the Iraqi milatary used their 40 nuclear weapons on Iranian cities.

The radiation was blown west by prevailing winds causing rising cancer rates, death, deformation, and steralization in half of syria and jorden, and causing a lot of trouble in the northern most part of saudi arabia. This was the conflict that defined the middle east during the 1980s were two regional giants vanished in one of the most brutal conflicts in human history.

But this didn't need to happen, there were plenty of points where the Iranian program could have fallen apart, and Israel had breifly talked about eliminating Sadams weapons in the infancy stage before cooler heads prevailed. If the two nations had known about the capabilities of the other the war might have been prevented.

What would have happened if this had come to pass, if the Iran Iraq war didn't go nuclear?
Well Middle Eastern oil was really taking off prior to the war, so we'd likely see a weaker USSR (especially if they fail to adjust their expenditures to the collapsing price of oil). Furthermore it's generally accepted without the radiation poisoning putting 50% of Afghanistan's population in Soviet hospital tents it's unlikely that the Soviets would be able to pacify the country. Perhaps this could be a good PoD for an end to the cold war TL.
 
Well Middle Eastern oil was really taking off prior to the war, so we'd likely see a weaker USSR (especially if they fail to adjust their expenditures to the collapsing price of oil). Furthermore it's generally accepted without the radiation poisoning putting 50% of Afghanistan's population in Soviet hospital tents it's unlikely that the Soviets would be able to pacify the country. Perhaps this could be a good PoD for an end to the cold war TL.

People have been saying that the cold war would end any day now since the soviets left the warsaw pact during the 90s.

But Poland in Nato or not the Soviets are still there, still talking about a glorious workers republic and still falling further and further behind.
 
The Uk Russian and USA joint coalition became a real difference to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Part of the coalition agreement was the creation of ABM systems and a joint special forces brigade to tackle proliferation of WMDS
 
well, for one thing, we could never have gotten that excellent Oliver Stone movie about an Iraqi Armored platoon that has to navigate the breakdown of law and order immediately following the dropping of the bombs. Don't remember the name, though.

That would be al-Qiyāma (1998). Absolutely fantastic film, I agree. Rivals Come and See in it's depiction of the horror and depravity of war.

Also, we wouldn't have seen another rise in the left after the far right neoliberals in Europe conducted all those pogroms in the wake of the refugee crisis.

Ah, yes, the "pogroms". At the risk of turning this into a politics thread, it's amazing how you people act like a couple deportations are tantamount to genocide. Yeah, sure, there were a couple actual pogroms, but those were conducted by neo-fascist terrorist groups - and it has been proven, time and time again, that they acted without the knowledge or support of the governments they claimed to represent. And while I'm not trying to defend the actions of those neo-Nazis, it's worth noting that in many of those instances the refugees are the ones who started throwing Moltovs.

And let's not forget that the number of attacks by right-wing terrorist groups against refugees is absolutely dwarfed by the atrocities committed by Islamic terrorists such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Jihad Organization, and Hezbollah against Europeans in the 1980s.

Unfortunately, they all seem to be Scoop Jackson Cold Warriors.

You say that like it's a bad thing. I mean, have you been watching the news lately? How the Soviets literally crushed those anti-government protesters in Mongolia under their tanks? All those thousands of Pakistanis choking and writhing and bleeding and shitting on the ground after the Russians and their Balouch puppets Novichok-bombed Lahore? And now Nazarbayev's screaming about "a return to Soviet dominance in Europe", and they're massing troops on the Polish border? The "Scoop Jackson Cold Warriorism" is about the only thing the European liberals have right, IMO.

Well for one it wouldn't start the rapid nuclear proliferation in the wake of the exchange

It's really hard to say. I mean, at least some of those countries were going to get nukes no matter what. The South Africans had already built their bombs, Libyan program was already well on it's way, and the Egyptians would have gotten it's nukes to counter Libya, Exchange or not. Taiwan was always itching to get nukes to counter China, as well. Still, if not for the Exchange, I doubt Japan, West Germany, Vietnam, or either of the Koreas would have gotten the bomb.

The Uk Russian and USA joint coalition became a real difference to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Part of the coalition agreement was the creation of ABM systems and a joint special forces brigade to tackle proliferation of WMDS

The Tripartite Accords, arguably, were the best thing to happen to the world since Christ. Say what you will, but they successfully prevented the nuclearizaton of South America and kept the fanatical Pakistani regime from getting nukes, too.
 
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That would be al-Qiyāma (1998). Absolutely fantastic film, I agree. Rivals Come and See in it's depiction of the horror and depravity of war.



Ah, yes, the "pogroms". At the risk of turning this into a politics thread, it's amazing how you people act like a couple deportations are tantamount to genocide. Yeah, sure, there were a couple actual pogroms, but those were conducted by neo-fascist terrorist groups - and it has been proven, time and time again, that they acted without the knowledge or support of the governments they claimed to represent. And while I'm not trying to defend the actions of those neo-Nazis, it's worth noting that in many of those instances the refugees are the ones who started throwing Moltovs.

And let's not forget that the number of attacks by right-wing terrorist groups against refugees is absolutely dwarfed by the atrocities committed by Islamic terrorists such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Jihad Organization, and Hezbollah against Europeans in the 1980s.



You say that like it's a bad thing. I mean, have you been watching the news lately? How the Soviets literally crushed those anti-government protesters in Mongolia under their tanks? All those thousands of Pakistanis choking and writhing and bleeding and shitting on the ground after the Russians and their Balouch puppets Novichok-bombed Lahore? And now Nazarbayev's screaming about "a return to Soviet dominance in Europe", and they're massing troops on the Polish border? The "Scoop Jackson Cold Warriorism" is about the only thing the European liberals have right, IMO.

That movie was indeed excellent. Oliver Stone has a great passion for these movies and his former life as a soldier. The battles, the anarchy that followed, even the sound effects were incredibly tense.

As for the pogroms, I'm not saying it was genocide per say, as it wasn't industrial slaughter, but it was vicious hate crimes that completely derailed the far right in England and America. As for the Muslim terrorists, they seem to have a lot in common with the far right save the white nationalism. However, It was the far right surge in Europe for the time being that brought back left-Keynesianism, at least in the US, so that's why I didn't mention them. And though several refugees were the ones causing the crimes to begin with, that doesnt justify those attacks, as in sure you'd agree

As for the Soviets, I dont deny their absolute authoritarianism and war crimes, but I don't wabt to see the world go up in flames. The Sovs aren't exactly the Warsaw Pact at their height, but they still have enough nukes to burn the earth several times over.
 
That movie was indeed excellent. Oliver Stone has a great passion for these movies and his former life as a soldier. The battles, the anarchy that followed, even the sound effects were incredibly tense.

As for the pogroms, I'm not saying it was genocide per say, as it wasn't industrial slaughter, but it was vicious hate crimes that completely derailed the far right in England and America. As for the Muslim terrorists, they seem to have a lot in common with the far right save the white nationalism. However, It was the far right surge in Europe for the time being that brought back left-Keynesianism, at least in the US, so that's why I didn't mention them. And though several refugees were the ones causing the crimes to begin with, that doesnt justify those attacks, as in sure you'd agree

As for the Soviets, I dont deny their absolute authoritarianism and war crimes, but I don't wabt to see the world go up in flames. The Sovs aren't exactly the Warsaw Pact at their height, but they still have enough nukes to burn the earth several times over.

The soviets are actually pretty predicitable.

If the price of oil gets too low, then they start stiring the pot in the middle east, in south america, and start acting up.

As soon as said price rises they go back to their hermit stage, their in many ways a lot less obnoxious then they used to be.
 
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