DBWI: The Germans strike first

What if the Russians didn't strike in early 1945 like they did in OTL? We know the Germans also had a plan to attack Russia but the Athens Landing had it pushed back. Using documents we have found its known the Germans planned on attacking on May 15th, 1941. So lets say they do. What happens?
 
Well, the Red Army was still a mess, still a year or two off from the reforms straightening it out, so they may have made serious in-roads. I'm dubious about the prospect of them even making it into the Russian interior though: the size of the USSR and the significant strategic reserves available would blunt the advance well before then. Not to mention what I have heard about "Operation Barbarossa "seems to think that the entire Red Army was stacked up along the frontier, which wasn't at all true. Plus, Stalin wasn't stupid. A man as clinically paranoid as him would certainly have seen such an attack coming.
 
In many ways it would be a reversal of 1945. The Red Army had undergone severe purges, and the Wehrmatch had its top officials at command, before the SS took over. But I still think the Soviets would repel the attack. Whetever they would march all the way to Berlin like OTL I'm not sure.
 
It is hard to see. Greece was a real meat grinder for the Germans. The British had total command of the air and sea, the Free French wanted revenge and the Greeks were very stubborn fighters when properly equipped on their home turf. The skillful use of terrain by the various Allied commanders made the Germans have to pay a very high "butcher's bill" to finally take it after 2 years of tough fighting. The butcher's bill was so high they couldn't fend off GB's attacks in Italy and France. When Stalin finally invaded it was as a vulture arriving late to a feast.
 

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Well, the Red Army was still a mess, still a year or two off from the reforms straightening it out, so they may have made serious in-roads. I'm dubious about the prospect of them even making it into the Russian interior though: the size of the USSR and the significant strategic reserves available would blunt the advance well before then. Not to mention what I have heard about "Operation Barbarossa "seems to think that the entire Red Army was stacked up along the frontier, which wasn't at all true. Plus, Stalin wasn't stupid. A man as clinically paranoid as him would certainly have seen such an attack coming.

Couldn't have been much worse than OTL; by 1945 Germany was suffering under the blockade very badly, the US/UK were pounding Europe to dust, and it was just a question of occupying the collapsing mess than was Europe. In 1941 Germany was at the peak of its power and if the Soviets were so messed up by the purges maybe the Germans could have toppled Stalin because of how unpopular he was and gotten all the resources that sank them IOTL.
 
Couldn't have been much worse than OTL; by 1945 Germany was suffering under the blockade very badly, the US/UK were pounding Europe to dust, and it was just a question of occupying the collapsing mess than was Europe. In 1941 Germany was at the peak of its power and if the Soviets were so messed up by the purges maybe the Germans could have toppled Stalin because of how unpopular he was and gotten all the resources that sank them IOTL.

Occupying the USSR would be a worse meatgrinder that Greece ever was: there would be no way to extract resources from there. It's a wonder that the Nazis got as much from the MR Pact.

Some dismiss Generalplan Ost as Soviet propaganda, but it had the approval of Hitler himself. If it ever went through, even if the USSR collapsed... the Nazis would face an insurrection never seen before. Greece would be peanuts compared to that.
 
Couldn't have been much worse than OTL;

A grinding war of attrition on top of all that other stuff? Despite all of the pounding the German homeland was taking most of the German army was still in the field, deployed against the WAllied lodgements in France, Greece, and Italy even if they were weakening fast from the lack of replacements.

And hey, maybe taking the burden of breaking most of the German army would have put the Soviets in a more favorable light in the western eyes, averting the Cold War. Then again, given the sheer gap in views between the Russians and the west, I'm kinda dubious on that.

if the Soviets were so messed up by the purges
Except it's pretty clear they were not that messed up by the purges, otherwise they would have never rebuilt the Red Army.

maybe the Germans could have toppled Stalin because of how unpopular he was and gotten all the resources that sank them IOTL.
Given how poorly thought out Barbarossa apparently was? Fat chance. And Stalin had pretty well cowed any sort of dissent within the Soviet Union. Even the recently annexed frontier region was thoroughly cowed by '44-'45.

Occupying the USSR would be a worse meatgrinder that Greece ever was: there would be no way to extract resources from there. It's a wonder that the Nazis got as much from the MR Pact.

It's pretty clear that the MR-Pact wasn't a one-sided deal though. From '42 on, Stalin kept making Hitler pay exorbitantly more for the flow of raw materials.
 
I think the impact of the purges is way overstated anyway. People are acting like it would have meant the Red Army could barely function. You simply can't argue with manpower - if Hitler struck in '41 they'd have barely made it out of Soviet Poland before they started getting rolled back.
 
I think the impact of the purges is way overstated anyway. People are acting like it would have meant the Red Army could barely function. You simply can't argue with manpower - if Hitler struck in '41 they'd have barely made it out of Soviet Poland before they started getting rolled back.

I think that's giving the Wehrmacht too little credit. The sheer numbers of Germans planned and having quality leadership could see decent breakthroughs like in France. The Winter War showed what a purged Red Army operated like. However relying on horsedrawn carts to supply a Blitzkrieg? I'd predict 1812 Two: Frostbite Bugaloo as Germany's "best" bet - punching through and crippling themselves through logistical chaos before being finished off by the weather. Difference being a good deal of their tanks would be surrounded and obliterated before a retreat from the hinterland is even on the cards.
 
Lets face it, the Soviets in 1940-43 were a mess. Look how many divisions the Germans annihilated before they broke, (1st, 2nd, and 3rd battles of Warsaw anyone?)

Honestly the Germans could've probably succeeded in 1941 with getting up to Moscow, however afterwards would be something interesting.

Although Panzer 2's and 3's vs KV1's and T34's and winning would be ASB.
 
I think that's giving the Wehrmacht too little credit. The sheer numbers of Germans planned and having quality leadership could see decent breakthroughs like in France. The Winter War showed what a purged Red Army operated like.

Yeah but the breakout in France was achievable by being right next door to the Ruhr (pretty handy for supplies) and with France dropping the idiot ball over and over. AND they had to break through a much smaller number of men, and go a much shorter distance to reach Paris as opposed to Moscow. Also - mud. So - much - mud.
No matter how badly led the Soviets may have been in '41, you'd have a situation like the Japanese found against a wall of men in China. Just no way through.

Some of this chat about Hitler rolling to Moscow is laughable. And to be honest, typical of the worst trends of this forum. Wehrmacht wanking, plain and simple.
 
Yeah but the breakout in France was achievable by being right next door to the Ruhr (pretty handy for supplies) and with France dropping the idiot ball over and over. AND they had to break through a much smaller number of men, and go a much shorter distance to reach Paris as opposed to Moscow. Also - mud. So - much - mud.
No matter how badly led the Soviets may have been in '41, you'd have a situation like the Japanese found against a wall of men in China. Just no way through.

Some of this chat about Hitler rolling to Moscow is laughable. And to be honest, typical of the worst trends of this forum. Wehrmacht wanking, plain and simple.

Remember the 1st and second battles of Warsaw? Men who had been there since 1941 led the initial attacks and only lack of supplies kept the Wermacht from smashing the Soviets attack armies.

in 1941, those same buffoons were the defense, the purges in the West had done worse than the Eastern theaters.
 
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