DBWI: the "Fascist" movements of the 20s where successful?

I remember reading that in the Early 20s, there where a number of far right movements through out Europe that attempted coups. The Fascists in Italy, 1922, and the National Socialists in German in 1923. What if these movements had been successful? What would it take for them to become successful? How would, (for example) Trotsky react if the National Socialists came to power in Germany, and he suddenly had a militant anti-communist government just on the other side of Poland from him? Any thoughts guys?
 
You mean the "Colorguard" movements? The Blackshirts in Italy, the Brownshirts in Germany, and later the Grays in Romania.

Mostly, the old elites recognized that the future was in capitalism, safeguarded through international arrangements, not armies and empires. It is a very good thing that we had President Roosevelt in 1912-20 to see a gentle end to WW1 and a meaningful international trade network.

The other thing we don't know is what would have happened if the Russian Civil War played out fully. Historically, the West seized the opportunity to create a negotiated peace between Whites and Reds, leading to a "Pink Coalition" leading the country. Would the Reds have won if the fighting continued past 1919? Could that have made the Colorguard movements much more than a fringe affair?

Who knows...
 
I remember reading that in the Early 20s, there where a number of far right movements through out Europe that attempted coups. The Fascists in Italy, 1922, and the National Socialists in German in 1923. What if these movements had been successful? What would it take for them to become successful? How would, (for example) Trotsky react if the National Socialists came to power in Germany, and he suddenly had a militant anti-communist government just on the other side of Poland from him? Any thoughts guys?

Well, the important bit is "on the other side of Poland." I'd imagine the French would slap the Germans down pretty hard if they tried to remilitarize - I mean, they were willing to march into the Rhinelands just to collect debts, what would they have done if a German dictatorship had started rebuilding their military? (People will point out here that the 'emergency regime' of the 30's did just that, but you have to remember that this was during the depression, was done slowly and cautiously, and the French were terrified of the possibility of war setting off a communist revolution during the Depression).

Italy might easily have gone fascist, though, if the king had shown an atom less of firmness - it was a close thing as it was, if Mussolini had managed to put in a few more political markers before his March On Rome he might have pulled it off. After all, Italy was a poor country, and _most_ of the poorer parts of Europe ended up as dictatorships of one stripe or other.

What would have a Fascist Italy have done? Italy was certainly never strong enough militarily to seriously challenge France, let alone the UK, but it might have had a strong influence on the perifery of things. It might have gone to war with Yugoslavia rather than just funding under-the-table Croat seperatist groups. Perhaps it would have made it's "informal" protectorate over Albania into a more formal dominance.

A possibly important question: would have Italy have remained neutral with respect to the civil war in Spain? The republican victory was a fairly close thing as it was - would notable Italian help have forestalled this (and the messy liberal-trotskyite-syndicalist struggle afterward)?

(Of course, one must ask - what would be in it for the Italians?)

Bruce
 
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You mean the "Colorguard" movements? The Blackshirts in Italy, the Brownshirts in Germany, and later the Grays in Romania.

The other thing we don't know is what would have happened if the Russian Civil War played out fully. Historically, the West seized the opportunity to create a negotiated peace between Whites and Reds, leading to a "Pink Coalition" leading the country. Would the Reds have won if the fighting continued past 1919? Could that have made the Colorguard movements much more than a fringe affair?

Who knows...

I'm not sure it would have been very different in case of an outright Red victory - after all, Trotsky and the Left had come to dominate Russian politics by the late 20's thanks to the White's utter lack of ideas other than "God, nation and private property- oh, and down with the Jews!" and would until the 50's. I mean, read some of the stuff the Bolsheviks actually wrote - it's not like they were planning to establish some totalitarian monstrosity like the Brazilian Technocrats.

Bruce
 

mowque

Banned
it's not like they were planning to establish some totalitarian monstrosity like the Brazilian Technocrats.

Bruce

I was just going to mention them. Some fascist movements have went off rather well outside of Europe. Maybe we would have seen more of these if the European nations had went that far to the right. Only about a half of S. America and South East Asia lean that way...maybe more if Spain/Germany/Russia/ or Italy had 'fallen'?
 
I was just going to mention them. Some fascist movements have went off rather well outside of Europe. Maybe we would have seen more of these if the European nations had went that far to the right. Only about a half of S. America and South East Asia lean that way...maybe more if Spain/Germany/Russia/ or Italy had 'fallen'?

Well, the technocrats aren't really the same as fascists - most fascist movements had a romantic, irrational, blood-and-soil outlook which tended to celebrate hitting people in the face rather than rational thinking. Nasty as technocracy is, like socialism it derives from the rationalist side of western modernity, while fascism probably has more to do with 19th century romanticism and nationalism. As irrational as technocracy often seems in practice, its leaders have always claimed they were building a rational, scientific world, and if that involved killing loads of people, well, omelets, eggs.

That being said, fascist victories in Europe would have certainly have made it a much more widely imitated phenomenon. I can't really see a fascist success in Germany in the 20's, but given a fascist success in Italy, we might have seen a "latin" alliance of Italy, Spain, Romania, and perhaps Portugal, which could have been influencial enough to change South America's political history.

Russia, hm. A White victory in the civil war is one of those old AH perennials...

(OOC: in a TL sans a totalitarian Russia or Nazi Germany, what do AH writers waste the most brain cells on after the US Civil War?)

Bruce
 
Interstingly Mosley wrote in "My Life" that had circumstances been different he would have started a fascist group or joined an existing one.
 
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