DBWI: the effects on the Russian Empire if it hadn't entered the first world war

[Mister Abbadon]

In 1862 Great Britian and France Had Just entered the first world war on behalf of the Confederate states of America.

Now I know that almost all Alternate history writers profess that if the Peter the Great Incident hadn't happend or if the Istanbul Conference hadn't gone as badly as it did, the Russian Empire wouldn't have entered the war on behalf of the union, and Neither would have the Kingdom of Prussia or Spain and Italy and the Union would have lost Completly.

However, while the Russian Empire saved the Union Militarily, People tend to forget how the U.S. effected the Empire, Lets say we have the Usual Peter the Great incident POD and the Russian Empire never enters the war how will this effect the empire in the long run.

 

[Freizeit]

I doubt this would have affected Russian capitalism and the oil trade, but a USA would probably have been more friendly with Russia.

 

[stevep]

Mister Abbadon

Well the obvious point would be that WWII, 1892-97 is less likely to occur. If the US had been more soundly stomped in the 1860's it wouldn't have tried to reconquer the south and west then. Also without the 1st conflict you would still have seen Germany divided rather than dominated by Austria after the Prussia losses against the alliance.

Without either of them you would be unlikely to have had the 2nd war and given what happened then Russia would have been in a much better state now. Not the bloody slaughter in Poland and the Carpathians and the loss of its pacific territories to Japan. Or if say any Russia state, even the unstable dictatorship that emerged in 1902, had held Baku and the oil-fields that would have significantly boosted their economy.

Alternatively, the reforms that occurred after the bitter fighting in 1862-64, following on from the defeat in the Crimean campaign, may well not have occurred. If so Russia might have collapsed earlier without those.

I think that the relations with America were probably a weakness for Russia. The Americans were poor allies, uninterested in any real co-operation either military or economically and their determination to fight both Canada and the CSA meant that Russia, along with most of Europe was dragged into the disastrous conflict in the 1890's which could otherwise have been avoided.

One other point. Without the level of venom between Britain and Russia as a result the British attempts to protect the large Jewish population in the Russian empire might have been more successful. True many of them were able to escape and found refuge in Britain and Canada after 1899 but the issue was another one that poisoned relations between the two.

Steve