I mean when the DPK got sent to the Pacific to assist the Japanese in 1942 it was on the back of several Axis victories in Egypt and at Midway, which made the transport possible.
But I think despite the ass-kicking they administered to the Australians/Americans in New Ginea, I doubt Kesselring and his men would have accomplished much long term, even if they had not been sent.
Maybe the Allies nuke Japan instead of Germany in this TL? They were nearing B-29 range of the Home islands when the Axis capitulated. Might have used that instead of the OTL Lancaster on Munich.