DBWI: The commonwealth doesn't conquer Moscovia

A friend of my while drunk told me about his new book, placed in a world where not only the Polish didn't annex Moscow and just 200 years later, the Muscovites created a large nation and once controlled a empire that goes even into Germany. The POD would be keep Moscow free, what do you think? Is it possible?

(ooc: correct my English if you must, it's not my first language)
 
A friend of my while drunk told me about his new book, placed in a world where not only the Polish didn't annex Moscow and just 200 years later, the Muscovites created a large nation and once controlled a empire that goes even into Germany. The POD would be keep Moscow free, what do you think? Is it possible?

(ooc: correct my English if you must, it's not my first language)

It's possible, but you might need a fairly far-reaching POD: Maybe the Golden Horde doesn't try invading the Duchy in 1477, after the Vladimir Incident? (That eleven year war in our reality pretty much ruined the country and would eventually set the stage for Moscovia becoming a puppet of what was then the Polish-Lithuanian Empire in 1557-albeit one with a lot of autonomy for a while-prior to it's full annexation on October 4, 1707, following the War of Three Tsars). What's so tragically ironic about this is that the Horde themselves weren't doing well and had just a few more things gone Moscovia's way.....they would have won, instead of just a draw.) That's the easiest scenario I can think of, but there may be others, too.

Come to think of it, I wonder how the non-existence of the Muscovite War might affect English history? Remember, England did begin establishing some friendly ties with Poland in 1492, just as Christopher Columbus was leaving for Hispaniola-the Brits even had a couple of Polish kings a few centuries later(albeit, both were Protestants). And would China ever gain control of the region once known as Siberia in the 1800s as well?

OOC: Somehow, I managed to accidentally leave out a word somewhere. :coldsweat:
 
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Who knows, perhaps the Russians would have invaded the Sibir Khanate instead of the Kazakhs led by Khak Nazar invading the Sibir in his last years. I wonder what would have occurred to the Mirzas had they not crossed the Urals escaping from the Kazakhs. I doubt that the Khanate of Cherdyn would have been established.
 
I think it depends on whether or not you think the consolidation of Europe into nation-states that was beginning to take place right around this time could be butterflied away. Personally, I think the Pan-Ruthenianism that laid the groundwork for many of the old Russian states to consolidate into the Russian Empire might have even been present during the reign of Andrew I of Moscovy. He was subjecting a number of local duchies directly under the rule of Moscow before the Tatar invasion in 1477, though with mixed success.

Given the difficulty he had in doing this, I think that in a TL where the Commonwealth doesn't conquer Muscovy, Russia will probably gradually centralize around Muscovy or Tver or some other polity that throws off the Tatar yoke, but any state that develops organically like this will be much more decentralized than the Russian Empire and then later Republic have proven to be. After all, there is no ideological motivation this way. I doubt the Commonwealth would have been able to put a stop to it. Going Protestant made ruling over their Catholic and Orthodox subjects rather difficult at first, especially once the Holy Roman Emperors were able to start intriguing.
 
Another possible POD would be making the 1611 rebellion successful and perhaps a change in the ruling dynasty might increase Muscovy's power base and make it the center of an independent Russian nation. Perhaps Michael Romanov could have that role although his execution in king Sigismund III courts could be a problem
 
Another possible POD would be making the 1611 rebellion successful and perhaps a change in the ruling dynasty might increase Muscovy's power base and make it the center of an independent Russian nation. Perhaps Michael Romanov could have that role although his execution in king Sigismund III courts could be a problem

The more I think about it, I think the best way to keep Muscovy out of Commonwealth hands would be to have it conquered by Tver. They were starting the beginning of their slow ascent around this time, maybe their arrival on the scene as an important regional power would have happened sooner.
 
I have a hard time envisioning a world where the north Caspian isn't dominated by the Nogai Republic. Slav-controlled Astrakhan just seems weird.

Any unconquered Muscovy will probably turn into a gigantic monster and spread across Sibir to get control of great lands to fuel the fur trade, especially if they get ahold of Novgorod and have some ports on the Baltic. If the Golden Horde blows up enough, you could end up with a Muscovy wank where they spread from the Baltic all the way to the Sakha Khanate.
 
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I have a hard time envisioning a world where the north Caspian isn't dominated by the Nogai Republic.

I mean, the Nogai Republic was only established in 1943, so that shouldn't be too hard to imagine.

Anyway, I don't see how Muscovy would magically conquer the entire northern third of Asia, or any of Asia for that matter. I think expansion into Europe is much more likely. I could easily see then taking over Sweden, and possibly Poland if they got strong enough.
 
I mean, the Nogai Republic was only established in 1943, so that shouldn't be too hard to imagine.

Anyway, I don't see how Muscovy would magically conquer the entire northern third of Asia, or any of Asia for that matter. I think expansion into Europe is much more likely. I could easily see then taking over Sweden, and possibly Poland if they got strong enough.
A eastern invasion could be quite easy if it's done before the Chinese settlements in the land formerly known as Siberia. Before them only nomadic tribes lived there and even a muscovite Amy would conquered them using firearms and contemporary tactics
 
Anyway, I don't see how Muscovy would magically conquer the entire northern third of Asia, or any of Asia for that matter. I think expansion into Europe is much more likely. I could easily see then taking over Sweden, and possibly Poland if they got strong enough.
I can't see Baltic-Scandinavian Muscovy.

Nothing's really going to stop them if they go east, since a strong Muscovy would almost have to involve a fractured Golden Horde. They really benefit from controlling the fur-trapping lands east of them.
 
I just don't think its possible. I'm sorry. The Russian states were far too disorganized at the time to put up a solid defense about the united Polish-Lithuanian common wealth. Also, could you really see Moscow(!!!) being able to absorb the Ukraine and the White Russians? These groups all hate one another to this day. Any state Russian state that combined them is going to be, at best, a basket case and ripe for revolution. I mean, Poland had enough troubles during the Age of Nationalism, although it was able to ride out the storm pretty well. Moscow? I just can't see it!
 
A eastern invasion could be quite easy if it's done before the Chinese settlements in the land formerly known as Siberia. Before them only nomadic tribes lived there and even a muscovite Amy would conquered them using firearms and contemporary tactics
Send an army across Asia to conquer nomads and fur trappers, or send an army next door to attack towards Pskov/Riga or Helsingborg?

I know what I would pick (Riga when the Poles are weak, Helsingborg when the Swedes are).

As an aside, I wonder what the butterflies will be for the Empire. The Poles might be more focused on defending against Muscovy, in which case German states will probably take the German cities on the Baltic coast - but with how German the Commonwealth turned out, it might be a net negative to the German peoples. Casimir VII had almost as many German advisors as Charles V of Spain had Dutch/Flemish advisors.
 
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