Putting this in After 1900 instead of Chat. If the mods feel the need to move it, please do so; I can understand why it would still be considered current politics. Also, excuse the rant. I feel it needs to be said, though.
I’ve seen a lot of threads in the past two years suggesting that had Fidel or Raul survived their assassinations, Cuba and the rest of the world would have developed into a much nicer place spared the ravages of Martin Castro’s rule. While we can all agree that Martin was a deranged, evil son of a bitch who is deservedly burning in Hell, I don’t think his brothers were anywhere near as paragons of rationality and political moderation that some of the useful idiots here think they were.
We know now Fidel had demanded the Soviets use their missiles against American cities during the First Cuban Missile Crisis. We know of their support for Che Guevera and his terrorist campaign across the Andes. We know that Fidel refused to sign the NPT in 1968. We know that Fidel ruthlessly crushed dissent against his regime. There is no reason whatsoever to believe that Fidel or Raul would have behaved any differently had they ruled past 1970.
Under Fidel, we would have almost certainly seen the same policies we saw under Martin. We would still have seen the communist revolutions across Latin America and the rise of the Caracas Pact as IOTL. We would still have seen Cuban support for groups like the Weathermen and the Black Panthers. Cuba would probably still have become a nuclear power by 2000, and Fidel and Raul would have probably supported the Second Mexican Revolution just as Martin did. And there is no question in my mind that either Fidel or Raul would have hesitated a second longer than Martin did before launching the missiles that so horribly devastated Miami, Atlanta, and Birmingham on that fateful spring morning in 2015.
In short, it is my belief that all three Castros were evil, murdering sons of bitches and swapping one out for another wouldn’t magically change that.
OOC: IRL, Mártin Castro was the half-brother of Fidel and Rául Castro. IOTL, he was offered a role in the Cuban government in 1959 but turned it down, instead working as a farmer until his death in 2017. By all accounts he was a simple, peaceful man.
ITTL, he accepts his brother’s offer and joins the Cuban government. When his brothers are assassinated in 1970, he develops a strong hatred for the United States and works hard to bring about that nation's downfall, resulting in the events depicted above.