DBWI the Black Hand assassinated the Austrian heir

Austrian emperor Francis Ferdinand I visited Bosnia in late June 1914 while he was still just heir presumptive to his uncle's throne. On the 28th in Sarajevo there was a failed attempt on his life by the Black Hand, a secret society of Servian nationalists, involving a bomb that bounced off his automobile. WI the attempt had been successful?

Edit: Oh God damn it, I forgot the question mark! Excuse the language but I find mistakes in punctuation intolerable.
 
I imagine condolences sent from all over the world and AH pounding the Hell out of Serbia for a while but that would be that.
 
Well, then the Great War might have triggered then and there, instead of being delayed until the 1920s. The failing Ottoman Empire might have won this war, instead of creating the vacuum that caused it.

Also, this assassin would kill one of the real peacekeepers and reformers in Europe!:eek: Try to imagine Austria-Hungary-Slavonia without Franz Ferdinand reforming the Dual Monarchy into a more Federal State. Kaiser Ferdinand did a LOT to keep that nation together in its roughest times--if you have a war in 1914 caused by his death, AH is going to be gone--they will have lost EVERYTHING. Even if their forces won the war, they can not win the peace.

Finally, there would be no way for the Central Powers to win the war. Russia simply has way too many forces it could bring to bear in this kind of counterfactual scenario. This would not follow OTL's massive drive south and Germany hitting a very distracted Russia--Russia would launch her White Armies straight into Germany. It should all be over by Christmas.
 
Well, then the Great War might have triggered then and there, instead of being delayed until the 1920s. The failing Ottoman Empire might have won this war, instead of creating the vacuum that caused it.

Also, this assassin would kill one of the real peacekeepers and reformers in Europe!:eek: Try to imagine Austria-Hungary-Slavonia without Franz Ferdinand reforming the Dual Monarchy into a more Federal State. Kaiser Ferdinand did a LOT to keep that nation together in its roughest times--if you have a war in 1914 caused by his death, AH is going to be gone--they will have lost EVERYTHING. Even if their forces won the war, they can not win the peace.

Finally, there would be no way for the Central Powers to win the war. Russia simply has way too many forces it could bring to bear in this kind of counterfactual scenario. This would not follow OTL's massive drive south and Germany hitting a very distracted Russia--Russia would launch her White Armies straight into Germany. It should all be over by Christmas.

But you are forgetting that at 1914 Russia's army was even worse than in the '20s, and its doubtful that they could have mobilized quickly enough to prevent the initial German drive from taking much of Russian Poland.
 
But you are forgetting that at 1914 Russia's army was even worse than in the '20s, and its doubtful that they could have mobilized quickly enough to prevent the initial German drive from taking much of Russian Poland.

I grant you that it would take a long time to fully mobilize Russia, but its hard to believe that Russia, once mobilized, isn't just going to roll over Germany. Yeah, Russia will lose Poland--temporarily. But in this 1914 war, Russia is not going to face attack in the Far East, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe at the same time. That's going to be huge. The UK and Japan would still be allied, and there would be no Arab Insurgency drawing away a large number of Russian Forces.

The real question is whether the 1914 war would follow a similar path in Central Europe--OTL, after a stronger consolidation of forces in play, the treacherous Italians were slowly but steadily beaten behind Venice and Lombardy. Instead of helping the situation, the partial collapse and Italy's withdrawal to the Po River wound up sucking away a large number of Entente troops.

The main differences with this earlier war is that the Ottomans are a possible player instead of the spoils of war, the dual monarchy is playing at a time of great fragility and likely faces collapse, Japan can be convinced to side with Russia, and it might not be completely insane for Germany to trounce the entire White Army. It's still borderline ASB, though...
 
Russia didn't have the industry to support a long-term war; they, like everyone else, assumed it'd be over quick. They had manpower, but not guns and ammunition for them; Germany, after crushing France with an encirclement through Belgium (it's called the von Schlieffen Plan, was deemed very important at the time, so no chance it gets thrown out), would easily beat them in a war of attrition.
 
No, no, no, you're completely forgetting the Ottoman's historic ties to Germany.

They'd have probably been in the Central Powers, and if they had, they'd have still lost, and still fallen apart, because Germany could not have knocked out Russia that fast, nor could they have knocked out France. I refuse to believe that Germany would have that much luck.

The only real question is if the various movements in the Arabian peninsula succeeded rather than faltering. Would we perhaps see a "Saudi Arabia" today?
 

Germaniac

Donor
Theres not chance a War that big could start over a Austrian prince. I just can't see the Powers of Europe overreacting that much. It took much more for our TL Great War too happen.
 
Theres not chance a War that big could start over a Austrian prince. I just can't see the Powers of Europe overreacting that much. It took much more for our TL Great War too happen.

Your forgetting the system of alliances that were in place at the time. Granted, the Austrians probably would have needed a blank check from Germany before starting a war with Serbia, and then Russia, and possibly France too if Germany got involved directly. This 'blank check' isn't entirely believable, but likely none the less.
 
Austria Hungary was already on the verge of collapse. If such an assassination had occurred, they would have decided to smash down the Serbs before other groups under their control decided they could do whatever they want.

And with the system of alliances, it'd be a cascade effect that would plunge everyone into war.

Maybe even the United States would have gotten invovled; there's really no way to know for sure there, though.
 
No, no, no, you're completely forgetting the Ottoman's historic ties to Germany.

They'd have probably been in the Central Powers, and if they had, they'd have still lost, and still fallen apart, because Germany could not have knocked out Russia that fast, nor could they have knocked out France. I refuse to believe that Germany would have that much luck.

The only real question is if the various movements in the Arabian peninsula succeeded rather than faltering. Would we perhaps see a "Saudi Arabia" today?

A "Kingdom" of Arabia maybe, but "Saudi" Arabia? I doubt it.
After the Saud family (clan? whatever) was discovered by the Ottomans to be formenting rebellion and seccession, they were exterminated by forcing all the female members into concubinage and "allowing" the male members to become eunochs. After about forty years, the family was effectively extinct.
 
Austria Hungary was already on the verge of collapse. If such an assassination had occurred, they would have decided to smash down the Serbs before other groups under their control decided they could do whatever they want.

And with the system of alliances, it'd be a cascade effect that would plunge everyone into war.

Maybe even the United States would have gotten invovled; there's really no way to know for sure there, though.

Why would the US get involved? It is in its interest to stay neutral and sell arms to everybody.
 
A "Kingdom" of Arabia maybe, but "Saudi" Arabia? I doubt it.
After the Saud family (clan? whatever) was discovered by the Ottomans to be formenting rebellion and seccession, they were exterminated by forcing all the female members into concubinage and "allowing" the male members to become eunochs. After about forty years, the family was effectively extinct.
Eh, good point. The only way they could have, I suppose, is if the Ottoman Empire completely fell apart after a CP loss.

Why would the US get involved? It is in its interest to stay neutral and sell arms to everybody.
Because Woodrow Wilson is just the sort of type to get the U.S. involved in foreign wars, no matter what the people want.

Plus, the Germans would probably have engaged in unrestricted submarine warfare, just as they did in OTL. It's possible they might've done something like take out a civilian U.S. ship a few times and give Wilson a good enough reason to stoke the flames of the American people.
 
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