What if Meades counterattack either not have occured or had not succeeded to such a degree that Lee was not killed along with the 50% casualties (mostly surrendered) and Longstreet and Hill were not captured?
If the war hadn't ended when it did US Grant would probably have been promoted after Vicksburg fell.
If Lee had been able to make it back to Virginia the war would have just been dragged on. But even if he makes it back somewhat intact, he lost so many men the south probably would have a hard time reinforcing him.
And with the Mississippi in Federal hands now and an ever tightening blockade the South would have just been slowly strangled, ala Winfield Scott's original plan.
I for one am glad the war ended when it did. If it had lasted until the election of 1864, Lincoln might have lost; and then the south might have had someone in office who was oriented more towards punishment than reconciliation. As a southerner myself I can say almost with certainty
he WAS rather generous during the short reconstruction that followed.
You will recall that emancipation was gradual and compensated, and how Jefferson Davis, Pierre Beauregard, and Joe Johnston were treated quite liberally. Then there was the fact that he granted full presidential pardons to all citizens of the South, veterans, politicians, and civilians.
That was quite nice of him.![]()
If Meade had simply not attacked (and I read somewhere that this was his inclination, but was persuaded by a wounded Hancock otherwise), then I imagine that Lee would have simply withdrawn to Virginia, as he did after Sharpsburg.
On the other hand, had Meade attacked and been repulsed, Lee could have possibly gone on to take Longstreet's advice and moved south to cut the Union forces off from Washington.