DBWI: Successful Red Turban Rebellion?

Dorozhand

Banned
The mid-14th century saw a major challenge to Mongol rule over China. Droughts, floods, and famine resulted in widespread dissatisfaction with the distant, ambivalent rule of the Yuan court. Factionalism between ministers and power struggles between the princes of the Yuan Dynasty caused neglect of these issues which cast into further doubt the efficacy of the Yuan rule, compounding the existing xenophobia.

After the prestige boost gained by Emperor Renzong when they further solidified the adoption of Confucianism in Yuan government, trouble began to start with the Coup d'état at Nanpo when the faction of the dead Grand Councillor Temuder and the Grand Empress Dowager Targi seized power with the help of the Alan Guard. This led to series of short-lived emperors and bloody coups that resulted in little attention being paid to good governance and repeated reversals of policy including the occasional abolition of the civil service examinations.

This culture of factionalism would eventually result in any official who displayed merit being murdered for the offense. However, the outstanding governance of Grand Councillor Toqto'a greatly improved conditions during the early reign of Emperor Huizong. His first administration resulted in flood management works and refurbishment of canals and irrigation systems, along with a crackdown on the black market and banditry. His second resulted in the army rapidly securing the central plains as the rebellion (which began as a salt traders' revolt) spread, forcing the early Red Turban warlords to the periphery through decisive action.

The rebellions were eventually put down largely through the highly effective military leadership of Wang Baobao, who after securing Gansu from a rival Mongol warlord and obliterating the Sichuan-based Xia state of Ming Yuzhen, defeated warlord Xu Da's Great Wei state at the battles of Anqing and Poyang Lake in a brilliant campaign along the Chang Jiang which brought most of the rebellion to an end. The triumph of Emperor Huizong's forces brought a second wind to the dynasty and the dynamism displayed by the new leadership was a reason that the Yuan lasted until 1539 rather than falling into chaos not a century after it was founded.

The Great Xia was probably the most promising state. Ming Yuzhen had successfully secured Yunnan and Shaanxi from a base of power in Sichuan, and had set up a capital in Xi'an. But Wang Baobao's campaign through Gansu encircled the Xia from the west and he brought the hammer down at the Battle of Jianmen Pass, resulting in the death of Ming and splitting the Xia in two. Even though the Great Wei ruled much of the south for a short time, their rule depended on Xu Da and the coalition crumbled after his death (Xu Da himself usurped power after the death of an earlier rebel leader named Zhu Yuanzhang). The Great Xia, meanwhile, actually survived the death of its first emperor and continued to resist for some time in western Sichuan under the rule of his heir. This seems like a much more promising and solidified administration. I imagine if the result of Jianmenguan had been otherwise, the Xia had a chance of bringing all the rebels under their banner and driving the Yuan out.

Another potential PoD, however, is the removal of Toqto'a by Emperor Huizong, who nearly dismissed him from his post out of fear that he would use the army to overthrow him. His decision to trust his minister may have saved the empire.
 
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For starters, China might be a less cosmopolitan and open country. Remember that both post-Yuan dynasties (the Qi Dynasty from 1539 to 1802 and the Yue Dynasty from 1802 to the present-day, even if China is nowadays a constitutional monarchy where the Emperor's powers are checked by a democratic legislature) declared their legitimacy not only by invoking the "mandate of heaven" but their line of descent to Genghis Khan. This would not be the case with a Red Turbans China due to the xenophobic attitudes many of them displayed.
 
For starters, China might be a less cosmopolitan and open country. Remember that both post-Yuan dynasties (the Qi Dynasty from 1539 to 1802 and the Yue Dynasty from 1802 to the present-day, even if China is nowadays a constitutional monarchy where the Emperor's powers are checked by a democratic legislature) declared their legitimacy not only by invoking the "mandate of heaven" but their line of descent to Genghis Khan. This would not be the case with a Red Turbans China due to the xenophobic attitudes many of them displayed.
So Proto- Boxers ?
 
For starters, China might be a less cosmopolitan and open country. Remember that both post-Yuan dynasties (the Qi Dynasty from 1539 to 1802 and the Yue Dynasty from 1802 to the present-day, even if China is nowadays a constitutional monarchy where the Emperor's powers are checked by a democratic legislature) declared their legitimacy not only by invoking the "mandate of heaven" but their line of descent to Genghis Khan. This would not be the case with a Red Turbans China due to the xenophobic attitudes many of them displayed.
On a similar note I can't imagine China's frontiers stretching to the Urals and the Caspian Sea as they do OTL in this situation. The fealty of the Tatar, Yakut, Central Asian, etc tribes was much easier to gain for the Great Khan, and by the time the Yuan fell they stuck with the Chinese first out of tradition and second because they needed the protection against the Russians and Persians.
 

Dorozhand

Banned
One possibility may lie in Daedong, then a Yuan protectorate. Namely the failure of the revolt of Yi In-Im against Yi Seong-gye. Yi Seong-gye's support for the Red Turban rebels was a military disaster and resulted in a great deal of opposition from generals like Yi In-Im who had fought against the Red Turbans for years in Yuan service. The betrayal of Yuan brought economic turmoil and an invasion, and the assassination of the childless King U of Goryeo for conspiring with Yuan garrisons to overthrow Yi Seong-gye resulted in widespread unrest. The full commitment of the army to the Yuan cause that came when Yi In-Im made himself king and proclaimed the new dynasty helped Toqto'a hold the north while Wang Baobao launched his offensives in the west. If the revolt had been crushed and Daedong had remained under the control of Yi Seong-gye and his puppet Goryeo king, then the Red Turbans may have been more successful and Yi Seong-gye may have been vindicated if Goryeo had become a loyal tributary of a rising Great Xia.
 
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